🌐 Goldman Sachs: Global Report

Here’s what Goldman Sachs analysts recently published about the current state of the global economy and financial markets:

1️⃣ Recession? Not this year

The probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months has dropped to 15% following a reduction in unemployment to 4.051% in September.

It seems the labor market is back in action, with job growth hitting 254k.

2️⃣ The Economy is Growing

Real GDP grew by 3.0% in Q2, with forecasts pointing to 3.2% in Q3.

Consumer spending remains strong, and the personal saving rate now stands at 5%, signaling continued confidence in stable demand.

3️⃣ Inflation on the Decline?

Oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions, but core PCE inflation continues to decelerate.

Wages grew moderately at +0.4% in September, particularly due to union agreements, offering hope for further reduction in inflationary pressure.

4️⃣ The Fed is Cautiously Cutting Rates

Had they known the recent data earlier, rates might have been cut by 25 bps. Further cuts are expected, with rate targets between 3¼-3½%.

5️⃣ Political Tensions and Market Impact

The U.S. elections remain too close to call, and the chances of a divided government are increasing.

Republicans are projected to gain a 51-49 majority in the Senate, which reduces the likelihood of drastic economic shifts.

6️⃣ Global Easing

The Fed has inspired other G10 banks: the ECB and Bank of England are preparing for 25 bps cuts, and New Zealand is looking at 50 bps cuts.

Risks remain, but the impact is significant.

7️⃣ EM Markets: Rate Cuts Still on the Table

Mexico, Poland, South Korea, and India all show high potential for further rate cuts.

Mexico may even opt for 50 bps cuts, with a current rate at 10.5%.

📊 Bottom Line:

Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to reach 6000 by year-end, but forecasts Brent oil to stay in the $70–85 range, with possible spikes due to geopolitical factors.

The dollar’s weakness also holds promise for emerging markets.

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🖥 North America: Chainalysis Analysis on Prospects

According to the latest Chainalysis report, North America has once again proven its leadership in the crypto industry.

From July 2023 to June 2024, $1.3 trillion flowed into the region’s blockchains, accounting for 22.5% of global activity.

◽️ Institutional Momentum in Action

70% of transactions exceeding $1 million confirm that large financial players dominate the North American crypto market.

Institutional money has become a significant driver of market growth — it’s no longer just "Bitcoin for enthusiasts," but a fully integrated part of the financial landscape.

The primary focus here, of course, is on the U.S., where 2024 has been a landmark year.

After the bear market triggered by the collapse of FTX and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, the crypto market showed remarkable recovery.

In March 2024, Bitcoin reached $73,000, confirming increased trust and stability in the crypto infrastructure.

◽️ The Merger of TradFi and Crypto

One of the key events was the massive adoption of Bitcoin ETPs (exchange-traded products), launched by giants like BlackRock.

These instruments allowed institutional and retail investors to invest in Bitcoin safely and easily, without dealing with wallets and private keys.

This was a game-changer: the capital inflow into Bitcoin ETFs even surpassed that of gold funds.

◽️ Stablecoins: A Slowdown

In recent years, stablecoins like USDC and Tether (USDT) have become essential tools for global payments.

They offer stability by being pegged to the dollar, making them ideal for countries with volatile economies.

While stablecoin activity in the U.S. has somewhat declined, we see an increase in their use in emerging markets like Latin America.

However, the problem remains: regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. is stalling further stablecoin growth.

While regions like Europe (through MiCA), the UAE, and Singapore are providing clearer legal frameworks for digital assets, the U.S. risks falling behind.

Circle, the issuer of USDC, warns that the lack of clear rules in America could weaken the country’s leadership in this area.

◽️ What’s Next?

North America remains the largest player in the crypto market, but it needs to address the regulation of stablecoins and digital assets to maintain its position against other regions.

Institutional players like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs will continue to expand the market, and Bitcoin ETFs are paving the way for mass crypto adoption.

Crypto has become part of the global financial system, and the U.S. now plays a key role in its development.

However, whether they continue to lead will depend on their ability to adapt quickly to new challenges.

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📈 $BTC on the Rise: Opinions from Forbes, the European Central Bank, and Ecoinmetrics

Open interest in Bitcoin futures has hit a record $40.37 billion, while Bitcoin's price has surged to $69K.

Leading the way are CME ($12.43 billion) and Binance ($8.25 billion), together capturing more than half of the total interest.

Amid this rapid growth, various perspectives on Bitcoin’s future are emerging.

1️⃣ Forbes: Bitcoin is Changing the Game

Forbes claims that Bitcoin is ready to revolutionize global finance and public markets.

With a market capitalization of $1.3 trillion and millions of users, Bitcoin has proven its strength.

BlackRock, the largest asset manager, has shifted from skepticism to support, and their Bitcoin ETF has already attracted over $23 billion.

In just 10 months, Bitcoin ETFs have drawn in nearly $20 billion, while gold funds attracted only $1.4 billion.

The clear signal: institutions are betting on Bitcoin.

⚪️ MicroStrategy and the ‘Endless Financial Glitch’

MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, is showcasing a new approach to Bitcoin — using it not just as an investment, but as a strategic asset.

Their strategy, based on issuing convertible bonds to buy Bitcoin, allows them to benefit from both global liquidity and Bitcoin’s scarcity.

2️⃣ European Central Bank: Caution Above All

However, the European Central Bank sees things differently.

They warn that Bitcoin’s growth could lead to wealth concentration among early holders, exacerbating inequality.

Despite Bitcoin’s promise to become a global payment system, it has yet to fulfill that role.

They caution that the rising price could pose a societal risk.

3️⃣ Ecoinmetrics: No Limits for $BTC Growth... or Stimulation

The U.S. labor market is currently stable, providing the economy some relief, despite early-year recession fears.

A strong labor market is good news for the economy, but for Bitcoin, it may mean a slower reduction in Federal Reserve rates.

This adds short-term uncertainty, but if a recession is avoided, Bitcoin will be in a strong position.

✅ Conclusion

On one hand, Bitcoin is gaining more supporters among giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy.

On the other hand, traditional institutions like the European Central Bank are warning of risks.

Ecoinmetrics, meanwhile, points to labor market stability and its impact on Bitcoin’s further growth.

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🟠 Is Binance Losing Ground? 0xScope’s Annual CEX Report

Binance is losing its footing, while its competitors are gaining momentum.

0xScope’s 2024 report shows that the leading exchange is facing significant challenges.

Other exchanges like Bybit, OKX, and Bitget are actively capturing market share.

🔸 Spot Trading: Binance Loses 13%, Bybit Rises to 2nd Place

Over the past 12 months, the 22 largest exchanges processed $14.6 trillion in spot trading volume.

Binance remains the leader with $5.78 trillion (39.54% market share), but its share has decreased by 13% compared to last year.

In 2023, Binance's share was 52.5%, indicating a continued decline.

Bybit has been the main beneficiary of this drop, rising from 7th place to 2nd, increasing its share from 3.2% to 8.51%.

OKX, in 3rd place, also slightly improved its position, increasing from 5.4% to 6.38%.

🔸 Here’s how the top five look:

1. Binance — 39.54% (-13%)
2. Bybit — 8.51% (+5.31%)
3. OKX — 6.38% (+0.98%)
4. Upbit — 5.77% (-1.03%)
5. Coinbase — 5.68% (-0.12%)

Binance's market share continues to shrink for the second year in a row.

In 2022, it held 62% of the market, but by November 2023, its share dropped to 30%.

🔸 Derivatives: OKX, Bybit, and Bitget Grow as Binance Declines

Similar trends are seen in the derivatives market.

Binance lost 8.4% of its share, dropping from 50.9% to 42.5%.

Meanwhile, exchanges like OKX, Bybit, and Bitget are strengthening their positions:

◽️ OKX grew from 15.5% to 19.83%, becoming the second-largest player.

◽️ Bybit increased its share from 11.3% to 13.98%.

◽️ Bitget secured 4th place, rising from 8.2% to 12.73%.

These three exchanges also took market share from MEXC Global, which fell from 7.3% to 4.27%.

🔸 Total Volume: Binance Losing Position, Competitors Rising

In 2024, Binance still holds first place with $22.5 trillion out of the total $54 trillion volume, but its share dropped from 51.2% to 41.68%.

The most successful competitors were:

◽️ OKX — from 13.4% to 16.19%.
◽️ Bybit — from 9.6% to 12.5%.
◽️ Bitget — from 7.0% to 10.28%.

The trends show that Binance is gradually losing its dominance, while its competitors are steadily gaining ground.

🟠 What’s Next?

The decline in Binance's share in both spot and derivatives trading indicates that its monopoly is weakening.

Meanwhile, Bybit, OKX, and Bitget are rapidly expanding, and the battle for dominance is only intensifying.

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