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🟠 Binance Research: Key Trends of the Month

Last month, the cryptocurrency market continued to demonstrate its volatility and dynamic development.

In the new Binance Research report, key events and trends that significantly impacted the market in July are highlighted.

🔸 Overview

July 2024 brought a 6.1% growth in the cryptocurrency market, driven by events such as the SEC's approval of nine spot ETH ETFs and Germany's sale of 50,000 BTC.

However, concerns remain regarding Mt. Gox repayments and the potential BTC sell-off by the U.S. government.


📈 Cryptocurrency Performance

🧬 Solana (SOL) saw a 30.5% increase, fueled by a 42.2% rise in DEX trading volumes and growing ecosystem activity.

✖️ XRP experienced a 27.6% increase, supported by the announcement of new indices and reference rates for XRP.

🔻 TRON (TRX) rose by 9.8%, entering the top 10 by market capitalization following the announcement of a new gasless stablecoin.

🪙 BTC rebounded by 9.7% after the easing of selling pressure and positive news from Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

Not all cryptocurrencies performed positively:


AVAX and ETH saw declines of 1.2% and 1.6% respectively, while TON dropped by 12.2%.

🟡 Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi grew by 3.5%, with the highest growth seen in CORE, Scroll, and Mantle.

Symbiotic's TVL surged by 283%, driven by partnerships with major protocols and interest in restaking.

🖼 NFT Market

The NFT market in July declined by 7.14%, with total sales reaching $430 million.

DMarket led the market with $16.2 million in sales.


While Solana collections showed volume growth, major Ethereum collections declined.

👀 Upcoming Events

August 2024 will see significant token unlocks that could impact the cryptocurrency market.

Among the largest token unlocks are:

🔺 $AVAX — $253.62M (2.42% of total supply), unlock date — August 20

🧿 $W — $150.76M (33.33% of total supply), unlock date — August 3

🌑 $APT — $74.76M (2.41% of total supply), unlock date — August 12

💲 $SAND — $67.35M (9.00% of total supply), unlock date — August 14

✖️ $IMX — $47.09M (2.11% of total supply), unlock date — August 9

These unlocks represent significant amounts that could affect the liquidity and pricing of the respective tokens.

🔸 In Conclusion

Despite positive news such as the launch of spot ETH ETFs and the growth of the Solana ecosystem, there are also concerning factors that may impact the market in the future.

Ongoing attention to Mt. Gox repayments and U.S. government actions indicate that market volatility is likely to continue 📊

It is important to stay informed of new trends and be prepared for changes that could significantly influence the market in the coming months.

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Liquidity Fragmentation: A Hidden Threat to Crypto Markets

Discussions around volatility and price swings in cryptocurrency circles never seem to die down, but one fundamental cause often remains overlooked — liquidity fragmentation.

This hidden phenomenon can become a catalyst for significant price discrepancies and sharp market movements.

Let's dive into how liquidity fragmentation impacts markets and what it might lead to.

📊 Crypto Markets and Liquidity Fragmentation

Liquidity fragmentation occurs when trading volumes and liquidity are unevenly distributed across various exchanges. As a result, different platforms can exhibit varying prices for the same asset.

Although these discrepancies have lessened over time, they still occur, particularly on smaller, less liquid exchanges and during sharp market events 🕯

A recent market sell-off on August 5th served as a clear example:

BTC prices on Binance.US 😀 diverged from those on more liquid platforms. The situation was even more dramatic for less liquid altcoins.


Binance.US, whose trading volumes and liquidity have plummeted since the SEC lawsuit in June 2023, became the epicenter of these price discrepancies.

📉 Price Slippage and Market Shocks

Price slippage — the difference between the expected price of an order and its actual execution price—serves as one of the best indicators of liquidity. During market sell-offs, this slippage tends to increase, making it harder to execute orders at the desired price.

During the August 5th sell-off, slippage increased across most exchanges, but the most significant spike was observed in the BTC-JPY pair on Zaif and the BTC-EUR pair on KuCoin, where slippage exceeded 5%.

Surprisingly, even stablecoin-quoted pairs like USDT and USDC on BitMEX and Binance US showed a significant increase in slippage, despite their reputation as the most liquid pairs on crypto exchanges.


⌨️ Liquidity Concentrates on Weekdays

With each passing year, liquidity in cryptocurrency markets is increasingly concentrated on weekdays. This trend has intensified with the launch of spot ETFs in the United States 🇺🇸

Unlike traditional markets, which close on weekends, crypto markets operate 24/7, leading to heightened uncertainty over the weekends, especially if a sell-off begins on a Friday.

In recent years, weekend volatility has generally decreased, but the increased concentration of trading during weekdays raises the risk of sharp price swings on weekends during market stress.

For instance, last week, Bitcoin 🪙 dropped by 14% between Monday and Friday.


📌 Conclusions

Liquidity fragmentation is more than just a technical term; it's a real threat capable of causing significant market disruptions.

However, despite the challenges, crypto platforms continue to adapt, investing in infrastructure and reducing the cost of arbitrage opportunities.

During the recent sell-off, BTC-USD and BTC-USDT trades reached record levels on Bybit, and this trend is expected to continue developing.

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🌐 The History of Economic Hegemony: How the U.S. Dominated Global Markets

Hegemony refers to the dominance of one country or group of countries over others in political, economic, or cultural spheres.

In the context of the global economy, hegemony means that one country plays a leading role, exerting significant influence over global markets 🔝


By examining the distribution of global stock market capitalization across countries, we can see how the global economic landscape has changed over the past century.

🗺 A Multipolar World Before World War I

The major countries leading in stock market capitalization were distributed as follows:

🇬🇧 United Kingdom: 24% of global capitalization.
🇺🇸 United States: 15% of global capitalization.
🇩🇪 Germany: 13% of global capitalization.

Thus, before World War I, the world was truly multipolar.


💵 The Rapid Rise of U.S. Influence in the 1920s

The 1920s marked a turning point. The U.S. began to pull ahead, and its share of global stock market capitalization started to rise rapidly.

🌔 A Unipolar World Today

Today, the U.S. accounts for 61% of global capitalization, making it the undisputed economic leader.

In comparison, no other country even has a double-digit share in this metric.


All other countries are mere "dwarfs" compared to the U.S., and this includes even large economies like China.

🇷🇺 Russia's Role on the Global Stage

It's also interesting to note Russia's history. At the beginning of the 20th century, Russia held 6% of global stock market capitalization, but since then, its share has significantly decreased.

Today, Russia is almost invisible on this chart, highlighting the substantial decline in its role in the global economic arena over the past century 📉

👀 What Conclusions Can Be Drawn?

This chart is not just an illustration of the current state of affairs but a reminder of how the global economy has changed and will continue to evolve.

The U.S. has undoubtedly become the main player on the world stage, and there are currently no signs that its dominance will be seriously challenged in the near future.

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📣 Tier-1 Funds Invest in the TON Ecosystem

Fanton Fantasy has successfully completed a $1 million funding round, attracting the attention of leading investment funds such as Animoca Brands, Delphi Digital, Kenetic Capital, and Hashkey Group.

This raises the question: what makes this project so appealing to the industry's top players?

💎 Why Fanton Fantasy?

The Fanton Fantasy project, which has already secured support from:

⚪️ TON Accelerator
⚪️ PAKA Fund
⚪️ Sign VC
⚪️ TOP Labs
⚪️ Notcoin

Fanton Fantasy offers a unique combination of fantasy sports and blockchain technology, making it a true pioneer in this field.

Its innovative approach and ambitious goals have not gone unnoticed in the market.

👀 Strategic Vision

Yat Siu, co-founder of Animoca Brands, commented:

"We are pleased to support Fanton Fantasy Football and its innovative approach to integrating fantasy sports with blockchain technology in the TON ecosystem 💎

This strategic investment aligns perfectly with our vision of mass adoption of the Web3 gaming experience."


❗️ More information you can learn here:

@fanton_nft_en

❗️Join in to be part of this ambitious project and support the development of the TON ecosystem!

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📊 How Japan and US Interest Rates Impact Cryptocurrencies

Global markets were shaken by economic events once again: on August 5th, after an unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Japan, global risk assets experienced a sharp drop.

According to Jiang Jinze, Chairman of MuseLabs, this is not a typical crisis, and with the US rate cut expected in September, there could be a rise in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

💸 The Sharp Move on August 5th: What Happened?

The yen surged by 12% in a single day, marking the most significant move since 1987.

The abrupt rate hike by the Bank of Japan caught many market participants off guard, triggering panic across financial markets, including cryptocurrencies 💬

This panic affected all markets, from stocks to currencies.

However, short-term leveraged trades were particularly vulnerable.

💰 How Do Interest Rates Affect Cryptocurrencies?

In the long term, the US rate cut scheduled for September could lead to a rise in crypto assets in the fourth quarter.

A rate cut might boost interest in risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies, especially if economic data does not point to a US recession.


Ethereum and Bitcoin might follow last year’s scenario, where interest in cryptocurrencies surged around the launch of ETFs.

However, this time, selling pressure and fund unlocking could limit Ethereum's growth ⚪️

❗️Key Facts and Figures

3% - 5% - the potential growth in crypto assets in the fourth quarter if the US rate cut goes ahead and economic indicators remain stable.

615 institutional investors already hold IBIT, indicating a high level of interest in crypto ETFs.


👀 What’s Next?

Keep a close eye on the US rate cut expected in September.

If it happens, it could act as a catalyst for a new crypto market rally, especially following the stabilization after August’s volatility.

As we approach the fourth quarter, all signs suggest that cryptocurrencies might get a second chance at growth, provided the US economic situation remains stable.

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🔔 Technology in Formation

Many are talking about the resurgence of interest in military technology and the sudden growth of venture investments in this area. However, when you dig deeper, the real picture is much more complex.

Let’s explore how civilian innovations and startups are changing the rules of the game.

🔍 What Really Lies Behind "Military Technology"?

Bessemer Venture, with its rich history and connection to the inventor Henry Bessemer, reveals in its latest report that modern military technology is not just about traditional weaponry.

Thanks to the significant increase in demand from the military, civilian innovations are attracting venture funding to develop:

⚪️Robots
⚪️Artificial Intelligence
⚪️New Communication Systems

For example, NATO has already allocated a substantial sum of €1 billion to support such projects.


However, the primary interest of these startups remains focused on civilian markets, which are still larger and more promising 📈

🎖 The Evolution of Military Technology

In the 20th century, horses disappeared from battlefields, and in the 21st century, the role of humans on the battlefield may also decrease thanks to technological progress.

Future conflicts may rely more on economies and production capacities than on direct military confrontation.


But what’s especially important is that these changes are being driven not only by military institutions but also by civilian startups, which see huge opportunities for implementing and scaling new technologies.

🪙 High-Yield Investments

Bessemer Venture openly states that government grants create unique conditions for startups.

These grants allow projects to grow without diluting investors' shares 🪪

This kind of support stimulates the development of a wide range of projects that can find applications in both military and civilian sectors.

Thus, civilian technologies are beginning to play a key role in enhancing defense capabilities.

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Forwarded from Crypto TV
❗️❗️❗️Telegram Founder and CEO Pavel Durov Arrested in France

Pavel Durov, the founder and CEO of Telegram, was arrested at Le Bourget airport in France due to a search warrant issued on the basis of a preliminary investigation.

Authorities claim that the lack of moderation and cooperation with law enforcement on Telegram make it an accomplice in various crimes, including drug trafficking and fraud. Durov may face indictment for multiple offences, such as terrorism, narcotics, and money laundering.

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Forwarded from TON Insider
Bybit is giving away $7,000,000 in DOGS!

Here’s how to claim your share of the tokens:

1. Sign up using this link — Bybit $30k
2. Complete Level 1 verification
3. Click the registration button in the promo

Currently, there are two campaigns:

Campaign 1 — 192,500 DOGS per account
for new users only

1. Deposit 100 USDT and use it to buy DOGS
2. Receive 192,500 DOGS (worth over $500)

Campaign 2 — Up to 30,000,000 DOGS per account
for all users

1. Trade DOGS for an amount of $500 or more
2. Earn up to 30 million DOGS ($84.8k) — amount depends on trading volume

Official promo: link
DOGS listing: August 26 at 15:00 Moscow time (in 2hrs from now)
When is the giveaway: The first 10k users will receive $DOGS today


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🇫🇷 Pavel Durov Detained by French Authorities: What’s Happening?

Shocking news has rocked the crypto world and the digital technology industry:

Telegram’s founder and CEO, Pavel Durov, has been detained by French authorities at Paris Le Bourget airport.

What’s behind this arrest, and what are the latest developments?

🖥 Key Information:

According to French television channel TF1, Pavel Durov was detained on Saturday evening as he disembarked from his private jet.

The 39-year-old businessman, who holds both French and Russian citizenship, had arrived from Azerbaijan and was detained along with his bodyguard and a woman.

Reports indicate that an arrest warrant was issued for Durov by France’s National Judicial Police Directorate (OFMI) as part of a preliminary investigation.

The warrant was activated as soon as he entered French territory.


NSPCC Ranking of Child Abuse Image Incidents:

◽️Snapchat: 4,312 times (44%)
◽️Instagram: 1,217 times (12%)
◽️Facebook: 852 times (9%)
◽️WhatsApp: 522 times (5%)
◽️Kik: 494 times (5%)
◽️TikTok: 427 times (4%)
◽️Twitter/X: 294 times (3%)
◽️YouTube: 330 times (3%)

❗️ Official Charges:

TF1 reports that Pavel Durov is facing multiple charges, including terrorism, drug trafficking, complicity, fraud, money laundering, and the concealment and distribution of pedophilic content.

If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison.


There is speculation that France may use this legal process to pressure European countries to intensify their joint efforts against Telegram, accusing the platform of facilitating terrorism.

EU sanctions against Telegram are also possible.

💬 Are Durov’s Projects Really That Dangerous?

Many are questioning why Durov is under fire. Some suggest that Durov was targeted instead of Mark Zuckerberg because Telegram refuses to cooperate with government censors and does not grant security agencies access to users' private data.

For comparison: Meta platforms have been found to host significantly more instances of child exploitation than Telegram.

In fact, Telegram doesn’t even rank in the top 8 for such violations.


💎 TON Community’s Response:

The TON community has expressed its support for Pavel Durov, assuring that the ecosystem continues to operate without disruption.

They call for calm and unity during this challenging time, emphasizing that Durov’s efforts to promote an open and decentralized internet continue to inspire millions around the world.

#️⃣ Who’s Supporting the #FreeDurov Hashtag?

Pavel Durov’s arrest has sparked outrage among influential figures and activists calling for his immediate release. Among them:

➡️ Elon Musk expressed his support by tweeting the word “Freedom” three times in French on X, calling Durov’s arrest an attack on free speech:

“Look at this First Amendment ad. It’s very convincing.”

➡️ Tucker Carlson, an American journalist, stated:

“It wasn’t Putin who arrested him for giving the public freedom of speech. It was a Western country, an ally of the Biden administration and an active NATO member, that locked him up. This is a warning to any platform owner who refuses to censor truth at the behest of governments and intelligence agencies.”

➡️ Edward Snowden called Durov’s arrest an assault on human rights:

“I am shocked and deeply saddened that Macron has stooped to the level of hostage-taking as a means to gain access to private communications. This degrades not only France but the entire world.”

Support for the hashtag also came from Julian Assange (founder of WikiLeaks), Richard Stallman (founder of the free software movement), and Paul Graham (founder of Y Combinator).

🗣️ Conclusion

This incident raises many questions about freedom of speech and the independence of digital platforms.

It’s important to recognize that despite all the charges, many see this as an attempt to control the flow of information and exert pressure on the owners of independent platforms.

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ℹ️ Is a U.S. Recession Being Delayed?

Just when everyone was bracing for a recession, economic data delivers some surprises.

Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their forecasts again—now the probability of a U.S. recession stands at just 20%.

But let’s break down what’s behind these numbers.

📊 Retail Sales and Labor Market: A Signal to Ease Worries?

It all started with the July jobs report, which raised serious concerns:

◽️ Only 114,000 new jobs were created in the non-farm sector, significantly below expectations.

This weak report prompted Goldman Sachs to increase the likelihood of a recession to 25%. But that was just the beginning.

Shortly after the report’s release, a new round of data brought some changes:

1️⃣ Retail sales in July rose by 1%—three times more than expected.

2️⃣ Additionally, jobless claims fell by 7,000.

These figures led to a forecast revision: now, the probability of a recession is lowered to 20%.

❗️ The Sahm Rule and Its Impact on the Market

The July report also triggered the so-called "Sahm Rule."

The Sahm Rule is an indicator that signals the start of a recession:

if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points above its lowest value in the last 12 months.


This rule was the primary reason for initially increasing the recession probability to 25%.

However, new data suggests that the U.S. labor market is still holding up well, and further weakening seems unlikely.

If the August jobs report, due on September 6, shows positive results, Goldman Sachs will likely reduce the recession probability back to 15%, where it stood for almost a year until early August 🕯

👀 What Are Others Saying?

Goldman Sachs isn’t the only one revising its forecasts.

Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, recently stated that their team no longer predicts a recession.

But he cautions: if the Federal Reserve doesn’t cut rates, consumer activity may decline, presenting a new challenge for the economy.

On the other hand, JPMorgan Chase raised its recession probability to 35%, citing slowing inflation and rising unemployment.

However, even here, JPMorgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman asserts that key recession indicators are still absent.


🔈 What’s Next?

September will be crucial. If the August jobs report is:

Strong, it could signal a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed, boosting confidence in the economy’s resilience.

Otherwise, a more significant 50 basis point cut cannot be ruled out.

Goldman Sachs and other analysts are closely monitoring the situation, and the market awaits clarity.

For now, despite all the warning signs, a recession remains possible, but no longer inevitable.

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📣 PumpFun: What’s the Secret to Its Success, and Who Has Improved on It?

In recent months, the cryptocurrency world has turned its attention to the rapid rise of meme coins, which continue to gain popularity across various platforms.

Behind this hype lies serious strategy and competition among key players.

Let’s dive into who’s really setting the tone in this new wave of digital assets.

🗓 PumpFun: The Beginning of the Story

PumpFun stormed the market during the Solana hype, offering a unique opportunity for anyone with just $2 to launch their own meme coin.

By moving away from traditional utility tokens, PumpFun became a platform for creating and launching meme coins, generating $100 million in revenue and nearly 2 million created tokens.

However, as in many success stories, competitors didn’t take long to respond...

🏁 DegenFund: A New Player on Solana

When the community grew tired of countless PumpFun one-day tokens, DegenFund decided to step in.

They added their own ideas, such as the Antibot system and Dev Token Lockup, which helped them pull some of the liquidity and audience away from PumpFun.

As a result, they successfully launched major meme coins like $BAKED and $EGL, making DegenFund the top competitor on Solana.


⁉️ BSC and the FourMeme Attempt

Binance didn’t stay on the sidelines and introduced their own meme coin platform — FourMeme.

But launching a separate project instead of utilizing the power of Binance Launchpad raised some eyebrows.

Despite successful cases like $CAT, BSC has yet to reach the same popularity as its competitors.


The question remains whether they can attract enough liquidity and users for continued success.

☀️ SunPump on Tron: A Smart Move by Justin Sun

Among all the players in the meme coin arena, SunPump on Tron stands out as the main competitor to PumpFun.

SunPump’s success is backed by the support of Justin Sun and a $100+ million fund aimed at promoting meme culture.

By releasing the product at the right time, SunPump managed to attract a massive amount of liquidity and users, securing a leading position.


👑 Who Will Become the King of Meme Coins?

Today, every chain has its own version of PumpFun, and even Bitcoin hasn’t been left out, though its project is still in the testnet phase and needs refining.

The question is, can any of these players truly dominate the meme coin meta?

Tron with SunPump, Solana with PumpFun and DegenFund, or BNBChain with FourMeme — who will emerge as the dominant force in this exciting world of meme coins? 👀

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Forwarded from TON Insider
Telegram’s Financial Results Revealed: $400m of Assets in Crypto

Telegram’s 2023 financials have been disclosed, offering a rare glimpse into the company’s operations and raising questions about its sustainability:

5️⃣6️⃣7️⃣8️⃣
Key Financial Highlights:

Revenue: Telegram reported $342.5 million in revenue, a significant figure but one overshadowed by an operating loss of $108 million.

Operating Expenses: The company burned through over $450 million in operating expenses to generate its revenue, highlighting the high cost of maintaining its platform.

Crypto Revenue: Over 40% of Telegram's revenue came from crypto-related activities, including its "integrated wallet" and "sale of collectibles."

Digital Assets: Telegram’s digital assets, primarily Toncoins, are valued at nearly $400 million, making up a substantial portion of its balance sheet.

Asset Revaluation: The company recorded a gain of $86 million through the revaluation of digital assets, boosting its comprehensive income.

New Business Line: The "integrated wallet" introduced in 2023, allowing users to store, send, and trade crypto assets, became a crucial revenue stream for Telegram.

Liabilities: Despite raising over $2.3 billion from blue-chip investors, Telegram is burdened with substantial liabilities, raising concerns about its financial health.

Valuation Concerns: With an operating loss and heavy reliance on volatile crypto assets, the $30 billion valuation touted by Durov earlier this year is now under scrutiny.

Debt Maturity: $2.4 billion in debt maturing by 2026, including a $1bn bond issued in 2021, which might be unsustainable due to Telegram's operating losses.

Telegram’s heavy reliance on crypto assets like Toncoin underscores the company’s shift towards digital currencies as a primary revenue driver.

The TON blockchain, originally developed by Telegram and now managed by an open-source community, continues to play a pivotal role in the company’s financial ecosystem.


While Telegram’s financials reveal impressive revenue figures, the underlying challenges—significant operating losses, high expenses, and dependence on crypto—suggest a need for a closer examination of its long-term viability.

As the company navigates these financial hurdles and the recent arrest of its founder Pavel Durov, the future of Telegram remains uncertain. Investors and users alike will be watching closely as events unfold.

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