🇺🇳 UN Demographic Projections from 2024 to the Distant 2100

Demographic changes have a significant impact on global markets and the economy.

Let's dive into what the latest wave of data from the UN reveals.

🖥 The world population will peak slightly earlier

According to the latest UN projections, the global population will peak in 2084 at just under 10.3 billion people.

📉 Falling fertility rates are slowing population growth

The rate of global population growth is slowing due to a significant reduction in fertility rates.

Since the 1960s, the average fertility rate has more than halved from over 5 children per woman to 2.3.

In some regions, this figure is already below 2 children per woman.

🇨🇳 China and India 🇮🇳

China's population has already peaked and is now declining.

India is projected to overtake China to become the world's most populous country by 2023.

This is due to a sharp drop in China's fertility rates, which have long been below the replacement level.

🇿🇦 Expected population growth in Africa

Fertility rates in Africa remain high but are gradually declining.

In the 1970s, the rate was almost 7 children per woman, whereas today it stands at around 4.

The UN expects this figure to continue dropping to below 3 by 2050 and approach 2 by the end of the century.

❤️‍🩹 Life expectancy is recovering

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant increase in mortality and a decline in life expectancy worldwide.

However, in 2022, life expectancy returned to 2019 levels and continued to rise in 2023.

🗣️ Key insights:

Here are the UN statistics projected for 2100:

1️⃣ By 2084, the world population will peak at 10.4 billion people (currently 8.2 billion).

2️⃣ Every third person in the world will live in Africa.

3️⃣ The population of Europe will decrease from 740 million today to 610 million people.

4️⃣ The US and Canada will grow from 380 million today to 460 million people (+21%).

5️⃣ Asia's population will peak at 5.3 billion people in 2050.

6️⃣ Russia's population will decrease from 143 million today to 126 million people.

Of course, 2100 is still far away, and it is impossible to predict all the events that could impact these statistics and change the forecasts 📊

⌛️ Economic, social, and environmental factors can significantly alter the demographic landscape in the future, so it’s important to keep this in mind.

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🚨 Humpy the Whale Takes Over DeFi Protocol Compound

In July 2024, the DeFi space was shaken by a new high-profile event: a DeFi whale known as Humpy successfully took control of Compound.

What's behind these attacks? Let's find out.

📊 The Capture of Balancer

In the summer of 2022, Humpy gained control over most of Balancer's incentive distributions through the veBAL mechanism. This experience allowed him to become the second-largest holder of BAL tokens.

With Balancer, Humpy applied a two-step strategy:

1️⃣ Full control over the liquidity of a specific pool, securing the majority of liquidity mining rewards.

2️⃣ Securing a significant number of votes for the controlled pool to capture most of the incentive distribution.

Despite Balancer's efforts to counter the attack, their actions were insufficient.

⌨️ Current Assault on Compound

This time, Humpy focused his efforts on the idle COMP tokens in Compound's treasury, attempting to seize control through voting.

This movement involved attempts to redirect control using substantial volumes of COMP.

🐳 Humpy's "Golden" Strategy

Humpy did not directly participate in the entire operation but managed the process through a project called Golden Boys. This project, essentially a financial meme, used the ERC-20 token $GOLD.

The main product of the project was not aimed at creating structured financial products but at distributing liquidity incentives, including new issues of $GOLD and BAL rewards—all thanks to Humpy's influence on Balancer.

By creating a new Vault product called goldCOMP Vault, Humpy allowed users to stake their COMP tokens, transferring management rights to Golden Boys and receiving a goldCOMP certificate in return.

This certificate facilitated participation in the 99goldCOMP-1WETH pool on Balancer, minimizing trading losses and preventing minor losses.

⚠️ It Worked on the Third Try...

After setting this up, Golden Boys launched a governance attack on Compound, proposing to transfer a significant amount of COMP tokens to their multi-signature wallet to obtain management rights.

Despite the failure of the first proposal, they did not give up and proposed a second and then a third proposal, each time increasing the number of requested tokens to 499,000 COMP.

The proposal was eventually approved, allowing Humpy to effectively take control of Compound...

📌 P.S.

As of the time of writing, the Compound community has reached a preliminary agreement with Humpy, in which Compound will share 30% of its annual incremental total revenue with COMP token holders, making these tokens yield-bearing assets.

This incident highlights the need for DeFi products to reconsider their governance models to avoid similar problems.

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💸 USA on the Brink of a Debt Abyss?

The serious increase in the US national debt to $35 trillion, or $110,000 per American, raises concerns.

Economic forecasts suggest the debt could rise to $53 trillion by 2034.

In his latest article, Balaji Srivanasan raises important questions about the future of American finances.

Let's delve into the key points...

🇺🇸 Was there a similar situation in the past?

Debt levels comparable to the current ones were last recorded during World War II.

After the war, the debt fell to 25% of GDP in the 1970s, but the financial crisis of 2008 raised it to 52% of GDP 📈

💸 Reasons for the debt increase

COVID-19 triggered financial stimuli of more than $5 trillion, significantly increasing the national debt.

The cost of servicing this debt has doubled since 2021, exceeding $800 billion and even surpassing the defense budget.

💵 Decline in global demand for the dollar

The dollar's share in global trade has dropped from 70% to 60% over the last 25 years.

China has reduced its investments in US government bonds from $1.3 trillion to $0.8 trillion.

These two factors are cited as some of the main reasons for the fall of Bitcoin (BTC). You can read

more about this in a separate post.

❗️ Total volume of obligations

Including social security and Medicare, the total volume of US obligations reaches $175 trillion.

In comparison, the total value of leading tech companies is only $15.7 trillion 🕯

👀 So...

Arguably, the most important figure is $175.3 trillion — this is the real debt of the USA, taking all obligations into account.

This figure is from the US government's financial report of February 2024 and continues to grow 📈

As Srivanasan points out, addressing this issue requires unconventional approaches and innovations.

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🟠 Binance Research: Key Trends of the Month

Last month, the cryptocurrency market continued to demonstrate its volatility and dynamic development.

In the new Binance Research report, key events and trends that significantly impacted the market in July are highlighted.

🔸 Overview

July 2024 brought a 6.1% growth in the cryptocurrency market, driven by events such as the SEC's approval of nine spot ETH ETFs and Germany's sale of 50,000 BTC.

However, concerns remain regarding Mt. Gox repayments and the potential BTC sell-off by the U.S. government.

📈 Cryptocurrency Performance

🧬 Solana (SOL) saw a 30.5% increase, fueled by a 42.2% rise in DEX trading volumes and growing ecosystem activity.

✖️ XRP experienced a 27.6% increase, supported by the announcement of new indices and reference rates for XRP.

🔻 TRON (TRX) rose by 9.8%, entering the top 10 by market capitalization following the announcement of a new gasless stablecoin.

🪙 BTC rebounded by 9.7% after the easing of selling pressure and positive news from Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

Not all cryptocurrencies performed positively:

AVAX and ETH saw declines of 1.2% and 1.6% respectively, while TON dropped by 12.2%.

🟡 Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Total Value Locked (TVL) in DeFi grew by 3.5%, with the highest growth seen in CORE, Scroll, and Mantle.

Symbiotic's TVL surged by 283%, driven by partnerships with major protocols and interest in restaking.

🖼 NFT Market

The NFT market in July declined by 7.14%, with total sales reaching $430 million.

DMarket led the market with $16.2 million in sales.

While Solana collections showed volume growth, major Ethereum collections declined.

👀 Upcoming Events

August 2024 will see significant token unlocks that could impact the cryptocurrency market.

Among the largest token unlocks are:

🔺 $AVAX — $253.62M (2.42% of total supply), unlock date — August 20

🧿 $W — $150.76M (33.33% of total supply), unlock date — August 3

🌑 $APT — $74.76M (2.41% of total supply), unlock date — August 12

💲 $SAND — $67.35M (9.00% of total supply), unlock date — August 14

✖️ $IMX — $47.09M (2.11% of total supply), unlock date — August 9

These unlocks represent significant amounts that could affect the liquidity and pricing of the respective tokens.

🔸 In Conclusion

Despite positive news such as the launch of spot ETH ETFs and the growth of the Solana ecosystem, there are also concerning factors that may impact the market in the future.

Ongoing attention to Mt. Gox repayments and U.S. government actions indicate that market volatility is likely to continue 📊

It is important to stay informed of new trends and be prepared for changes that could significantly influence the market in the coming months.

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