💸 Black Monday for Bitcoin: Possible Reasons for the Correction

On the afternoon of August 5, 2024, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $49,729. It has since recovered slightly to just above $55,000 📊

However, CryptoQuant warns of a possible decline in BTC to $40,000.

Peter Schiff, in his tweet on "X," called this correction "Cryptocurrency Black Monday" 📉

He also wrote:

"Bitcoin will drop even further at the opening of the US stock market as investors start selling Bitcoin ETF shares. My prediction is coming true. Gold wins over BTC."

Let's explore the possible reasons for Bitcoin's decline:

1️⃣ Rising Unemployment Rate in the US

On Friday, the US unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, higher than expected.

A high unemployment rate indicates a potential recession, causing both the stock market and cryptocurrencies to crash.

Economic instability forces investors to seek safe-haven assets, negatively impacting the demand for cryptocurrencies ⬇️

2️⃣ Strengthening Japanese Yen

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, leading to an outflow of investments from US assets and other risk-on assets 🇯🇵

Previously, borrowing yen was cost-free, but now that has changed, making US investments less attractive.

3️⃣ Fear of World War III

In 2024, fears of World War III have surged for the fifth time.

During such times, investors avoid risk-on assets, leading to mass sell-offs.

The US, UK, and several other countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately, adding tension to global markets and increasing volatility.

4️⃣ Mt. Gox and Genesis Sales

The distribution of BTC by the Mt. Gox exchange is nearing its end, while Genesis payments are just beginning.

On Friday, more than $1.5 billion worth of BTC and ETH was distributed, which the market perceived as a potential upcoming dump.

Investors fear that large amounts of cryptocurrencies could be sold on the market, leading to further price declines 📉

5️⃣ The 'Crash' of Amazon and Intel

There is widespread discussion online about the "AI bubble" and a repeat of the "Dotcom bubble" due to weak earnings reports from American tech giants.

Poor financial results from Amazon and Intel are causing market concerns and increasing negative sentiment among investors.

6️⃣ Crisis in Asian Stock Markets

The Bank of Japan's rate hike has led to the strengthening of the yen and a decrease in risk-on assets 💸

Asian indexes are falling, creating additional pressure on global markets.

7️⃣ Decreasing Odds of Donald Trump's Victory in Presidential Elections

According to Polymarket data, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have roughly equal chances of winning 🇺🇸

Political uncertainty and potential changes in US policy are causing investor concerns, leading to decreased demand for cryptocurrencies.

8️⃣ ETH Sales by Major Players

Over the weekend, news emerged about ETH sales by Jump Trading and rumors from Arthur Hayes.

Large ETH sales are putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market, leading to further sell-offs among investors fearing price drops 💸

‼️ Conclusion

As we can see, the reasons for Bitcoin's decline are multifaceted and related to global economic and political factors.

We will continue to monitor developments and hope for a recovery 📈

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🇺🇳 UN Demographic Projections from 2024 to the Distant 2100

Demographic changes have a significant impact on global markets and the economy.

Let's dive into what the latest wave of data from the UN reveals.

🖥 The world population will peak slightly earlier

According to the latest UN projections, the global population will peak in 2084 at just under 10.3 billion people.

📉 Falling fertility rates are slowing population growth

The rate of global population growth is slowing due to a significant reduction in fertility rates.

Since the 1960s, the average fertility rate has more than halved from over 5 children per woman to 2.3.

In some regions, this figure is already below 2 children per woman.

🇨🇳 China and India 🇮🇳

China's population has already peaked and is now declining.

India is projected to overtake China to become the world's most populous country by 2023.

This is due to a sharp drop in China's fertility rates, which have long been below the replacement level.

🇿🇦 Expected population growth in Africa

Fertility rates in Africa remain high but are gradually declining.

In the 1970s, the rate was almost 7 children per woman, whereas today it stands at around 4.

The UN expects this figure to continue dropping to below 3 by 2050 and approach 2 by the end of the century.

❤️‍🩹 Life expectancy is recovering

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant increase in mortality and a decline in life expectancy worldwide.

However, in 2022, life expectancy returned to 2019 levels and continued to rise in 2023.

🗣️ Key insights:

Here are the UN statistics projected for 2100:

1️⃣ By 2084, the world population will peak at 10.4 billion people (currently 8.2 billion).

2️⃣ Every third person in the world will live in Africa.

3️⃣ The population of Europe will decrease from 740 million today to 610 million people.

4️⃣ The US and Canada will grow from 380 million today to 460 million people (+21%).

5️⃣ Asia's population will peak at 5.3 billion people in 2050.

6️⃣ Russia's population will decrease from 143 million today to 126 million people.

Of course, 2100 is still far away, and it is impossible to predict all the events that could impact these statistics and change the forecasts 📊

⌛️ Economic, social, and environmental factors can significantly alter the demographic landscape in the future, so it’s important to keep this in mind.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🚨 Humpy the Whale Takes Over DeFi Protocol Compound

In July 2024, the DeFi space was shaken by a new high-profile event: a DeFi whale known as Humpy successfully took control of Compound.

What's behind these attacks? Let's find out.

📊 The Capture of Balancer

In the summer of 2022, Humpy gained control over most of Balancer's incentive distributions through the veBAL mechanism. This experience allowed him to become the second-largest holder of BAL tokens.

With Balancer, Humpy applied a two-step strategy:

1️⃣ Full control over the liquidity of a specific pool, securing the majority of liquidity mining rewards.

2️⃣ Securing a significant number of votes for the controlled pool to capture most of the incentive distribution.

Despite Balancer's efforts to counter the attack, their actions were insufficient.

⌨️ Current Assault on Compound

This time, Humpy focused his efforts on the idle COMP tokens in Compound's treasury, attempting to seize control through voting.

This movement involved attempts to redirect control using substantial volumes of COMP.

🐳 Humpy's "Golden" Strategy

Humpy did not directly participate in the entire operation but managed the process through a project called Golden Boys. This project, essentially a financial meme, used the ERC-20 token $GOLD.

The main product of the project was not aimed at creating structured financial products but at distributing liquidity incentives, including new issues of $GOLD and BAL rewards—all thanks to Humpy's influence on Balancer.

By creating a new Vault product called goldCOMP Vault, Humpy allowed users to stake their COMP tokens, transferring management rights to Golden Boys and receiving a goldCOMP certificate in return.

This certificate facilitated participation in the 99goldCOMP-1WETH pool on Balancer, minimizing trading losses and preventing minor losses.

⚠️ It Worked on the Third Try...

After setting this up, Golden Boys launched a governance attack on Compound, proposing to transfer a significant amount of COMP tokens to their multi-signature wallet to obtain management rights.

Despite the failure of the first proposal, they did not give up and proposed a second and then a third proposal, each time increasing the number of requested tokens to 499,000 COMP.

The proposal was eventually approved, allowing Humpy to effectively take control of Compound...

📌 P.S.

As of the time of writing, the Compound community has reached a preliminary agreement with Humpy, in which Compound will share 30% of its annual incremental total revenue with COMP token holders, making these tokens yield-bearing assets.

This incident highlights the need for DeFi products to reconsider their governance models to avoid similar problems.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

💸 USA on the Brink of a Debt Abyss?

The serious increase in the US national debt to $35 trillion, or $110,000 per American, raises concerns.

Economic forecasts suggest the debt could rise to $53 trillion by 2034.

In his latest article, Balaji Srivanasan raises important questions about the future of American finances.

Let's delve into the key points...

🇺🇸 Was there a similar situation in the past?

Debt levels comparable to the current ones were last recorded during World War II.

After the war, the debt fell to 25% of GDP in the 1970s, but the financial crisis of 2008 raised it to 52% of GDP 📈

💸 Reasons for the debt increase

COVID-19 triggered financial stimuli of more than $5 trillion, significantly increasing the national debt.

The cost of servicing this debt has doubled since 2021, exceeding $800 billion and even surpassing the defense budget.

💵 Decline in global demand for the dollar

The dollar's share in global trade has dropped from 70% to 60% over the last 25 years.

China has reduced its investments in US government bonds from $1.3 trillion to $0.8 trillion.

These two factors are cited as some of the main reasons for the fall of Bitcoin (BTC). You can read

more about this in a separate post.

❗️ Total volume of obligations

Including social security and Medicare, the total volume of US obligations reaches $175 trillion.

In comparison, the total value of leading tech companies is only $15.7 trillion 🕯

👀 So...

Arguably, the most important figure is $175.3 trillion — this is the real debt of the USA, taking all obligations into account.

This figure is from the US government's financial report of February 2024 and continues to grow 📈

As Srivanasan points out, addressing this issue requires unconventional approaches and innovations.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑