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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞Siege of Lyman
Chronicle of Battles by the end of September 30, 2022

By the end of September 30, AFU had failed to complete the operation to physically encirclement Lyman.

▪️After retreating from Drobysheve and Yampil, the Russian Armed Forces' defences lineup along the outskirts of Lyman and the buffer zone around the Lyman Zarichne Torske road. Despite attempts by AFU to physically block the corridor, Russian forces repelled the attacks.

▪️AFU advance numbers at least 6,000 men: armoured groups attempt to advance from Drobysheve, Stavki, Dibrova and Yampil towards Lyman itself.

▪️At the same time, from the direction of Kolodyazi via a dam across the reservoir, a breakthrough was made towards Terny. AFU armoured vehicles managed to enter the settlement for a while, but then they were driven back.

▪️In this section of the front, the defence is conducted along the eastern bank of the reservoir, but given the bridgehead created by AFU in Ozerne and the tactics of using small mobile groups, there remains a danger of AFU reaching the rear.

▪️After the arrival of reinforcements, the Russian Armed Forces launched a counter-offensive against Stavky, attempting to extend their zone of control north of Lyman. By the end of 30 September, Russian troops had taken back the locality.

🔻Despite the current status quo in Lyman area, the outcome of the battle for Lyman is not yet clear. Russian Armed Forces have not deployed many reinforcements and AFU still holds a multiplicity advantage in manpower and equipment.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞The Fall of Lyman
Chronicle of Battles on October 1, 2022

By mid-October 1 it was clear that Russian forces had failed to turn the situation in Lyman.

🔻AFU concentrated their efforts on three road segments: Lyman — Zarichne, Torske — Kreminna, and Torske — Svatove. Having correctly allocated forces, AFU concentrated on cutting the lines of communication of the Russian forces.

▪️At the same time, the Russian defensive lines in Lyman itself, Stavky, the northern outskirts of Yampil, and along the «Road of Life» continued to be pressed through.

▪️By noon on October 1, AFU had managed to physically cut off the Torske — Svatove road and contain the Russian Armed Forces in Terny area.

▪️Ukrainian flag was raised at the western entrance to Lyman. At least 20% of the town was controlled by the enemy by then.

▪️Fighting shifted briefly to the centre and eastern part of Lyman, the southern outskirts of Stavky, and the northern outskirts of Yampil. Communication between Torske and Lyman garrison was blocked by fire.

▪️Following strikes by the Russian Armed Forces on Zarichne (Kirovsk), which was entered by Ukrainian formations, a corridor was broken through. Withdrawal of troops to Torske began through it. After the withdrawal, the bridge over the Zherebets River was blown up.

▪️TorskeKreminna road is under constant AFU fire control, with Ukrainian manoeuvre groups manoeuvring groups trying to tie up Russian units with combat.

🔻Despite the measures taken by the Russian command, it has at best succeeded in slowing the advance of the Ukrainian forces. It was not possible to turn the tide in the battle for Lyman. On October 1, 2022, after 20 days of heavy fighting, the Russian forces had to abandon the town.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞AFU Offensive on Svatove and Kreminna
Chronicle of Battles, October 2-3, 2022

🔻After the fall of Lyman and the loss of the left bank of the Zherebets River, Russian forces retreated to Kreminna: new defensive orders and lines are now being built there as the Russian Armed Forces must contain the offensive in the area.

▪️Ukrainian units continue to redeploy reinforcements to Lyman, Torske and Terny, regrouping the advancing forces.

▪️The village of Terny has become a staging ground for Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups to attack the Svatove-Kreminna road.

▪️The front line north of Kreminna is unstable: due to cut-off communications and lack of communication, there are reports of Makiivka being occupied and the advance of the AFU towards Raihorodok.

▪️Ukrainian units advancing from Kupyansk are not standing still. The AFU are pressing on Russian positions on the Orlyanske Kyslivka high ground.

▪️In the Tavilzhanka section, the AFU are building up their grouping in the vicinity of Hryanykivka and Masyutivka for a repeat offensive against the Russian Armed Forces.

▪️On-the-spot footage shows the Russian Armed Forces withdrawing from Borove, Pidlyman and Shyikivka: this may be a consequence of the decision to prioritize the defence in Svatove.

🔻The Russian Armed Forces are likely to continue their systematic retreat from their positions on the Oskil River to prepared positions around Svatove, attempting to inflict unacceptable losses on outnumbered enemy troops with artillery fire.

In such a case, the entire left bank of the Oskil River will come under the confident control of the AFU in the next few days. Since there is no natural water barrier, it would be more difficult, but still possible, for the Russian Armed Forces to hold the Svatove Kreminna section of the front.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞Chronicle of Battles in Mykolaiv-Beryslav Direction
October 4-7

🔻After the Russian army regrouped on 4 October, the AFU consolidated its position at the Sukhyi Stavok - Davydiv Brid - Mala Oleksandrivka - Tryfonivka - Dudchany. The Ukrainian unis did not stop there and continued their offensive towards Kherson and Nova Kakhovka.

▪️On the same day, in the Posad-Pokrovske sector, AFU mobile groups attempted to break through the Russian defenses near Blahodatne and Ternovi Pody, but Russian artillery forced the enemy to retreat.

▪️On the following day, the Ukrainian command regrouped the forces and continued the offensive in the Mykolaiv direction. Some troops were withdrawn from Mykolaiv to the second echelon, and a column of AFU military equipment was relocated to the Andriivka section.

▪️By the evening of 5 October, the AFU launched a simultaneous offensive in three sections of the front. They attempted to take the Russian Armed Forces' positions, with small assault groups attacking it.

▪️On the night of 5-6 October, several Ukrainian sabotage reconnaissance groups of four people each conducted a raid on Russian positions to the south of Davydiv Brid and around Pyatykhatky in order to find vulnerabilities in the Russian defences.

▪️On the morning of 6 October, AFU assault teams reinforced with armoured vehicles and supported by three artillery crews launched an offensive from Novohryhorivka to Ternovi Pody. Russian forces successfully repelled the attack.

▪️In the afternoon of 7 October, the AFU used their numerical superiority and began advancing from the area of Dudchany and Davydiv Brid. Russian forces hold their ground with the support of artillery and aviation.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞Explosion on Crimean Bridge
Events Chronicle of October 8

▪️At 6.05 a.m. Moscow time, there was an explosion on the bridge across the Kerch Strait linking the Crimean peninsula and the Krasnodar region.

▪️The explosion demolished three spans on the road section of the structure and damaged one and a half kilometres of railway tracks. Drivers and passengers of vehicles that were travelling on the bridge at the time of the detonation were killed.

▪️Immediately after the terrorist act, Russian services began working to reopen the bridge. By 4 p.m. the reversible traffic on the surviving road section of the bridge had been launched and by 8 p.m. the first train arrived on the peninsula.

▪️It will take one to three months to replace the damaged sections of the bridge. Until then, vehicular traffic on the facility will be restricted, rail traffic will remain at the same volume.

▪️The exact reasons for the explosion are not yet known. Analysis of open source data suggests that it was either the detonation of a passing truck by charges at a given location or the detonation of bombs mounted on the bridge spans.

▪️Disabling a section of the Crimean bridge would have little effect on the supply of the Russian Armed Forces grouping near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, coming from the Crimean side. The delivery of equipment and fuel from the mainland to the peninsula is carried out by rail, which had already been fully restored by the evening.

▪️Although the attempt to completely disable the bridge failed, the Ukrainian command may attempt another attack on the Crimean Bridge to cut off supplies to the peninsula and complicate the position of Russian forces in Mykolaiv-Kherson and Zaporizhzhia directions.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞Chronicle of Battles in the Starobilsk direction
October 7-11

▪️After leaving Lyman and Kupyansk, Russian troops were able to delay the AFU offensive and dig in on the borders of Tavilzhanka — Vilshana — Orlyanske and Raihorodka — Kreminna.

▪️On October 7, Cossacks of the 208th Cossack regiment made an audacious raid on Ukrainian positions in Dibrova. During the fightings, the AFU suffered losses and withdrew from the settlement.

▪️On the same day, units of the 14th separate mech brigade tried to storm the Russian Armed Forces' positions in Tavilzhanka. Russian troops repulsed the attack and destroyed several units of enemy armored vehicles.

▪️Due to failures in the Tavilzhanka area, the AFU command focused on crashing into the Russian Armed Forces' defence at the Vilshana - Pershotravneve line, trying to break through to the Troitske — Pokrovske — Nova Duvanka — Svatove line.

▪️There are several thousand AFU fighters concentrated on the Lyman Svatove sector. The Ukrainian reconnaissance groups has repeatedly tried to implement attacks in Kreminna, but they all ended in failure.

▪️On the night of October 10-11, Ukrainian units attempted to storm Russian positions in the Kreminna area. However, Russian Armed Forces' units not only repulsed the offensive, but also launched a counterattack.

▪️During the battle, Russian units managed to take the settlements of Terny and Novosadove. The units defending them, 66th mech brigade and 111st separate territorial defence brigade, were ejected and pushed back from settlements.

▪️Despite AFU's efforts to break through to Svatove and Kreminna, Russian Armed Forces were able to slow down the onslaught and stabilize the front. The Russian command continues to transfer reserves to the front line, engineering brigades are erecting fortifications for defence.

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🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞Starobilsk Direction
Chronicle of Battles, October 11-13

▪️Though the adversary managed to advance toward Svatove and Kreminna, the Russian Armed Forces managed to counterattack and level the front along the left bank of the Zherebets River.

▪️Ukrainian units retain a staging point in the northern part of the eastern bank, using it to attempt to to push through the Russian defenses.

▪️In the Tavilzhanka section, the AFU offensive was also disrupted: Ukrainian units were partly withdrawn to the western bank of the Oskil River.

▪️At this point, the AFU command concentrated its efforts on cutting into the defensive lines of the Russian forces and reaching Verkhnya Duvanka and Svatove.

▪️The AFU managed to break the Russian troops’ defense in Kislovka for some time and enter the locality. The Russian forces managed to regain control of the settlement and dislodge the enemy within a day.

▪️Having pulled in the reserves, Ukrainian units attempted an unsuccessful assault on Kotlyarivka on October 12. The AFU were subsequently forced to retreat to Kupyansk.

▪️To the south, the AFU failed to force Zherebets and take a staging point to start an offensive towards Svatove.

▪️The AFU command keeps trying to entrench on both banks of the Zherebets River. The reserves that are assigned to take Svatove in the nearest future are concentrated in Dvorichne, Kupyansk and Lyman.

▪️The local successes of the Russian Armed Forces in the Starobilsk direction show that in this section of the front the Russian command managed to adapt to the situation and draw lessons from the loss of Balakliya, Izyum, Kupyansk and Lyman.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞AFU Offensive in Starobilsk direction
Chronicle of Battles, October 21-25, 2022

▪️Having been defeated in the battles for Horobivka, the Ukrainian units turned to defense north of Kupyansk. Territorial defense units were redeployed to the front lines. After repeated attempts to storm the heights in the Kyslivka Orlyanske area, the AFU was tasked with flanking the fortified area.

▪️Having carried out contact reconnaissance, the AFU attempted to take Russian positions in Pervomaiske Orlyanske and Berestove Kuzemivka sections.

▪️The direction of the AFU main attack was from Makiivka in the direction of Chervonopopivka. On October 21, up to three Ukrainian 66th Separate Brigade’s battalion task groups, reinforced with armored vehicles, attempted to break the defense line of the Russian 20th Army and reach the road Svatove Kreminna, but the attempt failed.

For two days, Ukrainian units kept trying to consolidate on the heights between Makiivka and Chervonopopivka, but were forced to retreat under artillery fire, suffering heavy losses in manpower and equipment.

▪️Ukrainian units failed to expand the staging point towards Nevske. After 4 days of fighting, the AFU units lost their offensive potential. Now they stsand in need of rotation and reinforcements.

▪️The territorial defense units in the AFU rear near Borova and Kupyansk suffered significant losses from the Russian Armed Forces’ artillery fire.

▪️The AFU command moved a reserve of mercenary units and Western PMCs to Lyman to task less Ukrainian units and replenish the advancing group.

🔻Most likely, in the future, Ukrainian units will try to occupy heights at the Kyslivka Orlyanske line and reach Verkhnya Duvanka with a subsequent breakthrough to Belgorod region borders and block the supply of the Russian Armed Forces in Svatove.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🎞 Fighting in the Starobilsk direction
Chronicle of battles for October 26-30, 2022

🔻Fighting for Kyslivka — Orlyanske heights

▪️Ukrainian formations do not stop launching suicidal attempts to bypass the heights in the Kislovka-Orlyanske sector and take Russian positions. Some of the units that participated in the failed offensives, due to high losses, refuse to go on assault.

🔻Fighting in the Berestove — Kuzemivka area

The Ukrainian command set the task of breaking through the Russian defense at any cost and exiting the Nyzhnia Duvanka-Svatove highway.

▪️Numerous enemy attacks were repulsed, and the advancing units were driven back, and retreated to their original positions in the Kharkov region.

Having rotated, the ukrainian formations once again tried to squeeze the RF Armed Forces out of Kuzemivka. Having suffered losses, the enemy was forced to retreat.

▪️Russian troops carried out a successful counterattack on ukrainian positions on the left bank of the Zherebets' River. Novosadove was recaptured and Makiivka was completely cleared. Ukrainian formations, mixed with foreign mercenaries, repeatedly tried to recapture Makiivka, but failed.

🔻Fighting for Chervonopopivka

Another area of regular clashes was Chervonopopivka: the Armed Forces of Ukraine were advancing from Terny and Torske.

▪️Regardless of their own losses, the Ukrainian command is trying to starve out the Russian troops, constantly introducing new reinforcements into the unit.

🔻For a week of fighting, the Ukrainian formations failed to complete any of the assigned tasks. The Russian troops not only withstood all the attacks, but also returned some of the lost positions, continuing to strengthen the front line.

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❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Об активизации российской армии на некоторых участках фронта

В условиях серьёзной эскалации обстановки на Ближнем Востоке из виду выпали события, происходящие на Украине. Команда Мести доброй воли, говоря об активизации ВС РФ на нескольких участках фронта, отметила важную особенность.

С понедельника нашим войскам удалось уверенно отбить 6,2 км² территории локальными атаками без задействования больших средств. А противник, имея многотысячные резервы и поставки западной техники, с мая по данным LostArmour занял лишь 260 км².

🔻Действительно, отдельные подразделения ВС РФ перешли в контратаку. Это не полномасштабное наступление, а движение с целью занятия более выгодных рубежей. Так, фронт пришел в движение под Купянском, Макеевкой, Бахмутом, на Донецком направлении, у Марьинки, на Времьевском участке, и даже на Пологовском.

О результатах говорить пока рано. Но такая тактика выглядит оправданной. ВС РФ наносят колкие удары, выискивая наименее защищённый участок и растягивая оборону противника. Это при том, что ресурсов у ВСУ становится всё меньше (они по-прежнему есть, но с каждым разом потенциал снижается).

Особое внимание стоит уделить некому ступору в украинской медиасреде. Сразу после начала событий в зоне израильско-палестинского конфликта на Украине будто впали в прострацию из-за непонимания, что нужно делать. Блеклые заявления Зеленского тому подтверждение.

Карта в высоком разрешении

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