RussiaGate #Digest
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Russia is a riddle wrapped in mystery inside of enigma. But perhaps there is a key.

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There is one thing people in Russia or elsewhere often fail to understand: failures of the West are not necessarily their victories. Afghan case will show it the best way possible, although we do not consider it a failure of the US.

The most possible scenario for the country is a lasting civil war. Taliban took over fast, but it will be much more difficult to maintain the position, even with Pakistani and Chinese help.

Britain started to gamble right away in Panjsher.

Ahmad Massoud is not only the son of a fallen hero, but also a graduate of King’s College and City University, who spent time in Sandhurst. His uncle was Afghanistan’s envoy in London, their family’s Massoud Foundation is also based in London.

Massoud family controls lithium and emerald deposits in resource-rich Afghanistan. Saleh and Massoud already took over Charikar and, therefore, control now the only strategic road with Salang tunnel which connects Kabul with Northern Afghanistan.

Another Afghan tragedy is unfolding in front of our eyes. Mark our words - the fact of visual humiliation of the US will make it even worse for everyone.
Russian Vaccination Crisis

Regional Healthcare Ministries in Russia have received letters from Gamaleya Institute, the producer of Sputnik V vaccine, with recommendations on the usage of Sputnik Light vaccine.

The document has two columns. First one is with old recommendations, second is with updates.

The biggest update (written in bold, page 3) is that Sputnik Light is not safe for people older than 60.
The International Monetary Fund will grant Russia a $17bln as part of its $650bln Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) giveaway to help poorer countries recover from the COVID crisis more quickly.

Russia doesn’t need to convert these SDRs though. The country has significant international reserves and doesn’t need any cash. There is a fresh proof of this statement.

Vladimir Putin has called yesterday for one-off cash payments to be awarded to Russia’s pensioners ($135 each) and military service personnel ($200). These two categories represent about 40% of people eligible to vote in the coming Duma election.

So, Putin can spend about $7bln in one pre-election move. Not during Covid, when Russians needed support and many called for it, but now, one month prior to the elections in order to buy some votes. There are no usual worries about the inflation, Nabiullina is keeping silence.

Russians are indeed very poor because of practical social Darwinism of its elites, but Russia as a country certainly isn’t. Money isn't the problem, greed of the elites is.
Alexei Rakhmanov, the head of United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) of Russia, acknowledged that the corporation is struggling more and more due to Western sanctions.

According to Rakhmanov, foreign companies are cutting ties with USC which makes it hard for Russians to meet their deadlines. Unnamed German company, Rakhmanov said, refused to repair an engine for a steamship. The problem is getting worse day by day.

USC has been put on the list of Specially Designated Nationals by the US Treasury in 2014 after Crimean case. It had an immediate effect on its business. Russia is historically dependent on Western technologies.

Almost 30% of critically important technologies are being imported to Russia from abroad.

The technological gap between Russia and the West is seemingly uncoverable. State-owned tech corporations like USC or Rostech are known for their notorious budgets and corruption more than for successful research&development.
Putin announced today one-time $200 handout to all siloviks, not only military personnel. Being the CEO of Corporation Russia, Putin is acting the way he is supposed to.

Top management is making money, siloviks are fed to deliver repressive resource. Others do not matter.
Russian Evacuation: The Background

Russia announced today that it had created a four-plane group to evacuate more than 500 citizens of Russia and former Soviet republics from Kabul.

According to the Defense Ministry, Sergei Shoygu gave the order as directed by President Vladimir Putin. It's not completely true.

Actually the order was directed by the fact that abandoned Russian citizens desperately tried to leave the country on American planes.

Kazakh envoy to the US Yerzhan Ashikbayev tweeted a week ago that Russian citizens were among the people evacuated by Kazakhstan with the help of Americans.

Abandoned Russians applied for assistance to Kazakhs while Russian officials were making silly statements about American catastrophe and future presence of American military in the region, as if it depends on Russia.

Prestige matters
were always more important in Russia than human lives. Thank God there is America, it sometimes makes Kremlin actually do something in the interest of Russian people.
Mental Bunker

Speaking on the United Russia party’s assembly, Vladimir Putin said that prosperous families with 2-4 children are Kremlin’s top priority.

Levada pollster’s survey published yesterday showed that 40% of Russians cannot afford necessities and have forgone basic groceries and other essentials in the past six months.

The aging Russian President either forgot that children have to eat or he just doesn’t seem to care. Russian poverty is scary mainly because it is hitting even those who have jobs.

Anyway, we think that the aging Russian President shouldn’t even talk about any family values, considering circumstances of his personal life.

Perhaps, Putin thinks that the poorer the people are, the more children they will have. Like in failed states of Africa or Afghanistan. Russian poverty under Putin makes sense then – Kremlin is just trying to boost Russian demography.

Perhaps, this is the strategy.
Thirteen years ago Russia recognized two former Georgian republics – South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Time showed the cultural incompetence of Russia and its inability to export not only oil, gas and weapons, but ideas and effective political institutions – which is a sign of a true superpower.

South Ossetia’s President is a Russia-supported criminal Anatoly Bibilov, who plunged his nation into a devastating political crisis caused by a killing of local citizen Inal Dzhabiyev by policemen. The Parliament of South Ossetia is pushing for no-confidence vote against the government.

Neither of Abkhazia’s presidents after 2008 was able to serve his full term because of a permanent political turbulence in the country. Khadzhimba overthrew Ankvab only to be ousted by Bzhania.

Russia is failing culturally in both republics and cannot do anything about it. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are turning into little copies of the stagnating ineffective Russian political model.
Natalia Poklonskaya, former Crimean prosecutor under Ukraine and the symbol of Crimea’s reunification with Russia, will be sent out of the country to represent Russia as an envoy to Cape Verde.

Poklonskaya was the MP from the United Russia, but clearly wasn’t used to putinism in sense that all the MPs vote the way Kremlin orders them to. Poklonskaya opposed the notorious “pension reform”, which was actually a robbery of Russian pensioners, and some other federal initiatives.

Kremlin couldn’t just destroy Poklonskaya the way it usually does with people who oppose its plans inside the country because of her symbolic connection with Crimean case.

Exile to Africa and comfortable life is not that bad for a hero of Russian Reconquista.
Kadyrov Is Russia

Russian police is using leaked personal data from projects linked to Aleksei Navalny to investigate people who have watched Navalny’s anticorruption videos or simply subscribed to his youtube channel.

Journalist of St.Petersburg’s “Fontanka” talked to a local police officer on behalf of one of those who got a call from police. According to the policeman, they have been ordered to contact every person from the leaked data because Navalny’s FBK is designated by Kremlin an extremist organization.

We all know, that fighting corruption in Russia is an extremism, but it is really too much.

What is even more ridiculous, not the police or, for that matter, Russian courts have to prove that all people from the leaked lists are extremists. No, it’s up to people: all of them are guilty until proven innocent, not vice versa.

When we talk about human rights violations in Russia, Chechnya comes to mind instantly. Ramzan Kadyrov has created himself a personal lawless feudal republic with no regard for human rights and lives.

Russians like to point fingers on Chechnya, but we challenge anyone to name us one thing Kadyrov does which is not done by Kremlin all over Russia. One thing.
Foreign Minister Lavrov said today that attacking Joseph Stalin is attacking the history of WWII.

Stalinism as a form of etatism and personalist cult is Russia’s curse. Poor country just cannot get rid of Stalin and get a life the way Germans got rid of Hitler, only because Hitler lost the war.

It is a perfect example of how even a great Victory could be turned into a long-term loss. Putin's Victory cult is taking its toll on Russia’s future.

Lavrov would have to put his own spokesperson in line now: Maria Zakharova isn’t that enthusiastic about the bloody notorious dictator.
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We are not doing any propaganda, Andrew Gusiy. The Fontanka article, as well as other media sources, is literally about a man who got a call from the police only because he once subscribed to FBK's youtube.

He wasn't in the staff of Navalny's foundation, he didn't give a cent to it. Hopefully he won't have to apologize like Kadyrov's critics, but it won't make any significant difference anyway.
The explosion in Kabul airport changed a lot for the US and Americans. It would be difficult to impeach Biden, but the Republicans now have good chances for 2024.

We have said earlier that the withdrawal of Americans from Afghanistan won’t give Taliban an ultimate control over the country. The movement is fractured.

What is ISIS-Khorasan, allegedly responsible for the explosions? This piece of writing points toward the right direction. Amrullah Saleh says that every evidence shows that ISIS-Khorasan has its roots in Haqqani network of Taliban, and this we can also confirm.

A group of talibs is just using the ISIS brand, that’s it. The explosions show that there is no ultimate leader in Taliban, as well as there will be no peace in the country.

In a long term the US should dismantle Pakistan.

Russian diplomats are flirting with talibs, calling them reasonable and so on. Russia and China didn’t vote for the latest UN resolution regarding Taliban’s commitments.

Won’t help.
Worthy Trophy

We haven’t written about Vladislav Klyushin for a long time, which surely doesn’t mean that he is forgotten.

Switzerland has officially rejected an attempt by Moscow to extradite Klyushin to Russia, so he will likely end up in the US.

Klyushin is accused of insider trading, but actually he is interesting because of his contacts with high-ranked officials like Alexei Gromov. His M13 company has been getting lucrative deals from Kremlin since 2016 for monitoring social networks.

Kremlin’s telegram major Nezygar was also in Klyushin’s portfolio, but is controlled by other people from Staraya Ploshad now.

Klyushin is being held in a maximum-security facility in southwestern Switzerland. He will make a worthy trophy for the US.
Vladimir Putin has made lately two ridiculous claims.

The aging Russian President said first that the population of Russia could’ve been 500mln if not for the fall of Russian Empire and Soviet Union. We have no clue whatsoever how and why Putin The Historian is counting non-existent people, but could remind Putin of his own joke.

Second, Putin said that American operation in Afghanistan produced a zero outcome. Let’s take into consideration though that Putin was speaking in front of children.

The outcome and the results are coming, don't hurry. The question is whether Russia will be ready to accept them.

We strongly recommend everyone to follow Afghan case closely. It is a rare opportunity to see how different world powers are operating, because they have to do it more or less publicly. This window will close soon.
Today is the 17th anniversary of Beslan massacre, when terrorists took about 1200 hostages in Beslan, a town in Russian region of North Ossetia.

Unwilling or unable to reach an agreement over terrorists’ demand to withdraw federal troops from Chechnya, Russian siloviks assaulted a school with hundreds of kids in it.

The outcome – 334 people dead, including 186 kids.

Russian authorities still insist that they were forced to storm the school by the explosion inside. The survivors say otherwise. Anyway, Beslan showed that lives of people, even lives of kids, do not mean much for Kremlin.

Top Russian officials and top FSB officers were in charge of the assault with heavy weapons. In its aftermath Vladimir Putin used Beslan tragedy to cancel the direct elections in regions.

Vladimir Putin hasn’t visited Beslan to honor the victims of the massacre ever since.
Two individuals made careers and fortunes after Beslan. Dmitry Peskov was in charge of information coverage. The journalist of federal channel Margarita Simonyan lied to the whole country saying that there are only 354 hostages in the school.

The services of both were rewarded. Simonyan became the head of Russia Today next year, Peskov was appointed Putin’s press secretary in 2008 and now has millions on his wrist and is enjoying his life.