My first day in Moscow in 3 years, post-Covid, has been nothing short of epic. The immigration lady at Vnukovo smiled when I said "journalist". Changed euros into rubles with the girl that sold me a Megafon SIM card. No Metropol suite this time - like in 2000, covering Putin's election: a funky micro studio side by side with a Thai massage parlor (I can't stay away from Thailand too long). Went for a blitzkrieg walk in the snow for 5 hours, with selected stops, including my fav cappuccino at Coffee Mania, across the street from the FSB. Meeting amazing people all the way, including a Georgian-Ukrainian lounge singer hailing from...Donetsk. Stopped to pay my respects to the heroes of 1941-1945. Life is absolutely normal. Minimal inflation. Much lower than Istanbul, and lower than Paris. Supermarkets and delis are overflowing with everything. Business starts tomorrow, writing and meetings with friends, then Valdai on Tuesday. Everything from Istanbul to Moscow was cool, smooth and very civilized. Eurasia rolls on. The West barely registers as - annoying - background noise. And the capital of the 21st century is HERE.

Pepe Escobar e Roberto Quaglia da Istanbul a un anno dall'inizio dell'operazione speciale russa ci raccontano come sta cambiando il mondo con la caduta dell'ex Impero anglosassone - con Margherita Furlan (24/02/2023)
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🔥🚀 https://t.me/robertoquaglia 🚀🔥
💥 Iscriviti al canale per non perderti gli aggiornamenti💥

🛡After one year of war in Ukraine, Russia has not collapsed in the dramatic way that the United States and its European NATO allies were confidently predicting.

U.S. President Joe Biden in visits to Ukraine and Poland this week hailed the “unity” of NATO and the transatlantic alliance.

The reality is the Western transatlantic alliance is showing signs of fragmenting because of the immense strain on Europe’s economy due to European governments following Washington’s hostile policy towards Russia.

The Ukraine war is merely a manifestation of underlying geopolitics 📍

Contrary to Western great expectations, the Russian economy is holding up strongly and its military operations in Ukraine seem to be gaining the upper hand. This is in spite of the U.S.-led NATO bloc “throwing everything they can” at Russia to defeat it, from endless supplies of weaponry to support the Kiev regime, to endless rounds of economic sanctions in an attempt to collapse the Russian economy.

💬 Glenn Diesen @glenndiesen explains that Russia has long been preparing for confrontation with the United States and its European allies. Ever since the U.S.-backed coup in Kiev in 2014 and the Western betrayal of the 2014 and 2015 Minsk peace agreements, Moscow quietly realized that it would have to reinforce its economy to withstand the anticipated Western showdown.

Hence, Russia built up its military forces knowing that a conflict was coming. Just as importantly, Moscow took strategic steps to protect its economy by diversifying trade with the emerging Eurasian engine of global growth. Russia had resolved to abandon the centuries-old notion of focusing on Western partnerships for development and instead orientated its economic interests towards China, India, and the Global South.

The West has not realized the deeper geoeconomic shifts and thus presumed that they could punish Russia economically. Biden can longer enforce the old American demand on designated enemies to “Cry Uncle”.

That explains why Russia is not breaking from Western sanctions or from the ferocious military hostility that the U.S. and its NATO have unleashed via Ukraine.

🎞 WATCH ON YOUTUBE

#Ukraine #war #NATO

@strategic_culture

Let’s assume that there are really 10,000 armed Russian troops ready for defence. Reduce 2,000 for rear support activities. Then you have approximately some 40 troops for each kilometer of the line of contact between Ukraine and Transnistria. That is not very good. Since the attacker has the advantage of choosing where to attack and concentrate its offensive. Hence, intelligence is everything. As I stated before, it would mean, that Russia needs to divert its intelligence resources away from the actual combat to track, where Ukraine POTENTIALLY could attack.

I see two possible scenarios for this pinning operation.

1. Putting together two real brigades with well trained and equipped troops, that are assigned for offensive operations in Donbass. To make the threat look more credible.

2. Get together some territorial defence units and bring them to the Transnistrian border. This is actually more likely. Since I can’t see any escalation measures by Russia. Such troops would have a real hard time, breaking the Russian defences in Transnistria.

Ukraine can only attack Transnistria if Moldova greenlights it. If Moldova greenlights it, it is a party of the conflict. From Russia’s point of view and from Russia’s international partners, as well. Guess who depends on Russia economically? Guess who has a huge percentage of pro-Russian citizens? Moldova. I don’t see a scenario where Moldova would greenlight that attack, and without Ukraine won’t do it. It would trigger serious consequences within the European allies. I’m sure, Germany wouldn’t want to see such developments as well as Germany wouldn’t want to see Poland enlarging its territory by annexing parts of Ukraine.

Hence, again, there is almost no way, that such an attack could really take place. The only thing that would be worth it, would be the access to the Russian ammunition depot in Cobasna. Since it is clear that it would be blown up, the only reasonable reason left, is the diversion.

Currently, we see almost NO serious reactions by Russia. At least overtly. I don’t know what is going on covertly. Yes, some hard political statements, but no real overt preparations.

I assume, that the Transnistrian territory has been well prepared for such an eventuality before the start of the SMO. It should be clear enough, that after starting the SMO, Transnistria would be a hotspot.
To be clear, the Speznas has been used in this war for purposes, that are not their real purpose. Fighting battles that are designed for the regular army. Especially before the mobilization, because of men shortage. What I described above is ONE of their real purposes. But it is such a drastic measure, with a huge loss potential, that I simply can’t imagine such a thing happening. It would have such implications, that I don’t even want to write down here.

Conclusion
Unrealistic!

— Aleks

Black Mountain Analysis

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🟥 Edward Gibbons descrisse lo stato della cultura durante il Declino dell'Impero Romano: "... quest'epoca di indolenza passò senza aver prodotto un solo scrittore di genio originale o che eccellesse nelle arti della composizione elegante. [...] Le bellezze dei poeti e degli oratori, invece di accendere un fuoco come il loro, ispirarono solo fredde e servili imitazioni [...] Il nome di poeta fu quasi dimenticato; quello di oratore fu usurpato dai sofisti. Una nube di critici, di compilatori, di commentatori oscurò il volto del sapere, e al declino del genio seguì presto la corruzione del gusto".

https://lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-i_crociati_della_cancel_culture_di_oggi_e_come_difenderci/46096_48862/

Icarus defies hubris: Are Biden’s ‘Wings’ melting? | Al Mayadeen English
https://english.almayadeen.net/articles/analysis/icarus-defies-hubris:-are-bidens-wings-melting

Sharp as ever. But Crash Test Dummy is no Icarus. And hubris defines the Empire.

Smell the sulphur.

Reminiscence of the Future... : 50 Times! Pepe Escobar In Moscow.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/02/50-times-pepe-escobar-in-moscow.html

Vanguard CEO Abandons ESG Investing Alliance: "Not In The Game Of Politics" | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vanguard-ceo-abandons-esg-investing-alliance-not-game-politics

Le décor est planté pour une troisième guerre mondiale hybride
https://reseauinternational.net/le-decor-est-plante-pour-une-troisieme-guerre-mondiale-hybride/

https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/02/28/the-stage-is-set-for-hybrid-world-war-iii/

This is VERY serious.

How Russia and China are developing their parallel - civilizational - paths towards multipolarity.

This concise essay is also the last one to be republished by The Saker. Andrei is freezing the blog, at least for the foreseeable future. We will all miss it, immensely.

For me it's all quite emotional - I have supported The Saker from the beginning. His legacy will live on.

Escobar: The Stage Is Set For Hybrid World War III | ZeroHedge
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-stage-set-hybrid-world-war-iii

The Americans are going no holds barred turning Brazil into a Trojan Horse at the heart of BRICS.

For the moment, absolute success.

Yet Moscow and Beijing are perfectly aware of what's goin' on.

🟥 Il palcoscenico è allestito per la terza guerra mondiale ibrida

L'ultima analisi di Pepe Escobar in italiano

https://lantidiplomatico.it/dettnews-pepe_escobar__il_palcoscenico__allestito_per_la_terza_guerra_mondiale_ibrida/39602_48904/