— 🇮🇷 Iran's Presidential Election is in 34 days, here's what you need to know:

The political scene in Iran is extremely complicated, but when simplified, it basically consists of two main flanks: Conservatives and Moderates.

The Conservatives are politicians that fit squarely in the camp of the revolution. They stand 100% behind Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and they are generally considered more loyal to the revolution's original values. They put emphasis on keeping Iran an Islamic, strong and independent nation, with a foreign policy that could be dubbed 'Iran-first', trying not to rely on outside powers. Most politicians who belong in this camp opposed the 2015 Nuclear Deal with the US, for example.

The Moderates, or sometimes called 'Reformists', take a more liberal approach to interpreting the values of the Islamic Revolution. They are still ostensibly in favour of the Islamic Republic and its ideals, but wish to modernize and reorganize the country in a way that they feel fits the current era. Most of them support less strict rules on Hijab, returning to negotiations with the United States, and neoliberal market economics.

Some Moderate candidates are secretly anti-Islamic Republic, but hide behind their close relations with genuine pro-IR people to conceal their true views. They know they cannot voice their opposition publicly, because no one would vote for them, and they would get disqualified.

Iran's last Moderate President, Hassan Rouhani (President from 2013-2021) caused a major decline in economic development. By forming the Nuclear Deal with the U.S. in 2015, he put the Iranian economy at the mercy of foreign powers and investments. Khamenei, who was against the Nuclear Deal from the start, warned that the United States would never keep their end of the agreement.

In 2017, he was proven right, and the U.S. unilaterally pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, despite Iran's compliance, which was backed up by the IAEA. Inflation in Iran skyrocketed, and the economy experienced its worst state in 45 years.

All of this led to the Conservative President Ebrahim Raeesi winning a 72% landslide victory in the 2021 election. Turnout hit a record low, because reformists had lost faith in their candidates due to past failures to deliver on their election promises. As a result, the vast majority of those who voted were hardline IR supporters.

If President Raeesi ran for office again in 2025, he would most likely have won a second term. But due to his unforeseen martyrdom, others will have to stand up. Until now, we don't know the candidates, but I fully expect the Conservatives to win another landslide victory, as the Reformist voter base has become idle, and I doubt they will put up any meaningful candidates, unless they decide to put forward Javad Zarif, Iran's Foreign Minister from 2013-2021, who enjoys considerable support among Moderates.

Lastly, the dynamics of Iranian politics have changed quite a lot. Back in the 2000's and 2010's, if someone was anti-Islamic Republic, they would simply vote for a Reformist / Moderate candidate, to show their opposition to the regime. This was dangerous, because they actually had a way of changing the country's direction. Unlike what some people think, the President in Iran matters a lot.

Now, the people who are anti-IR simply don't vote at all, or cast blank protest votes, because they say 'all Iranian politicians are the same'. This is extremely dumb, they are shooting themselves in the foot, because if they all united to vote for a Reformist they could shake the country up pretty bad. But it is good for the Islamic Republic and its supporters, so I am quite happy they reached this conclusion, that they excluded themselves from the democratic process.

Conclusion: Anti-IR Iranians likely won't vote at all, a small number of them will vote for the Moderate candidate, but the Conservative candidate will likely win another landslide victory like Raeesi in 2021, due to overwhelming participation of the pro-IR and religious masses.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇮🇷/🇸🇩 BREAKING: Iran and Sudan agree to fully normalize relations, and to reopen their embassies in Tehran and Khartoum

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇬🇧⚡- British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, promises to bring National Service back, if re-elected. This would see all 18 year olds complete a 12 month course with the Armed Forces.

🇮🇱🇵🇸⚡️- IDF forces storming Jenin, bulldozers are being used to clear roads. A hospital has allegedly been targeted.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️- Massive aerial raids against multiple Ukrainian cities, including Kiev and Zhotomir.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Russian forces have already entered the next town of Novoselovka (Kharkov-Kupyansk direction), after capturing Ivanovka.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Ukrainian sources claim Russians have made it inside and are in the South-West of Konstantinovka.

🇬🇪⚡- Prime Minister of Georgia, Irakli Kobakhidze, accused the country's President, Salome Zurabishvili, of treason, in relation to the 'Foreign Agent' law, which Zurabishvili opposes.

🇬🇪⚡- “The unity of the people, and the Government they had elected have given us the opportunity over the past two years to maintain peace in the country, despite existential threats and various betrayals, including the betrayal of the current President.

The recent history of Georgia and the processes in the modern world have shown us especially clearly that 'sovereignty is the most effective guarantee of the country’s security'", – Irakli Kobakhidze, Georgian Prime Minister.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- "The Russian Federation is gathering another group of troops near the borders of Ukraine. The enemy is preparing for another offensive action," Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyi.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Russian Diversionary Reconnaissance Groups (DRG) attacked the Sudzha border checkpoint overnight, in the Kursk-Sumy border area.

🇷🇺🇸🇩⚡- "Russia has requested a fueling station on the Red Sea in exchange for providing us with weapons and ammunition," – Yasser al-Atta, Assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Sudan Armed Forces, who admits being offered help from Russia to fight the Sudanese Rapid Support Forces.

🇮🇷⚡️- Fars News Agency has reported that Doctor Saeed Jalili will be running for President of Iran.

🇮🇷 - In admin's opinion, Jalili will likely win the presidential election and be the next president of Iran.

🇺🇦⚡- Unconfirmed reports and rumours state that Ukraine's Commander-In-Chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, may be 'removed' from his post in the near future. Syrskyi has only held the position since February.

🇺🇲🇪🇺🇷🇺⚡- Russia is producing 3x more shells than the entire NATO alliance together, and for just 1/4th of the price NATO pays.

🇦🇲⚡- Archbishop, Bagrat Galstanyan, was nominated as a single opposition candidate for the post of Prime Minister of Armenia, against current Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan.

He will temporarily halt his religious services while running his political campaign.

🇫🇷⚡- "We have never had so many external and internal enemies. I really believe that "our Europe" can die," – French President, Emmanuel Macron.

🇧🇫⚡- Captain Ibrahim Traore, leader of Burkina Faso, has extended military rule by 5 years.

🇦🇲⚡- Tens of thousands are protesting outside Armenian Prime Minister's, Nikol Pashinyan, residency, demanding his resignation.