🇮🇱🇱🇧⚡️- Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon.

🇷🇺⚡️- Woman sets fire to voting booth in Moscow during initial day of Russian presidential election.

🇷🇺 - As of 3:45pm Moscow time, the elections turn-out is 20.6%. The three states of Chukotka, Jewish Autonomous Region and Magadan scored the highest attendance on Day 1.

🇷🇺⚡- A polling station in St. Petersburg was attacked with a Molotov cocktail.

🇬🇷🇺🇦⚡- Greece announces Ukraine aid package.

- 2,000 5-inch Zuni rockets
- 180 2.75-inch anti-tank rockets
- 90,000 90mm anti-tank anti-aircraft ammo
- 4 million bullets
- 70 US-made M114A1 howitzers

70 howitzers is noticeable AFAIK re: the numbers, especially coming from a country with 10 million people.

🇺🇸🇦🇿🇦🇲⚡- Stoltenberg to visit Azerbaijan on Sunday and Armenia on Monday.

🇺🇸⚡️- Florida Governor DeSantis alleges that Florida Fish and Wildlife officers intercepted a vessel carrying 25 illegal Haitian refugees, carrying guns, drugs, and night vision equipment.

🇫🇷⚡- Poll find Le Pen's RN would win an outright majority in the national assembly should elections be held today.

🇷🇺 - The polls have closed for Day 1, they will reopen tomorrow morning. With a turnout of 27.8% nationally, including an impressive 69% in Russian-held Kherson and 56% in Zaporozhye.

Eight people were arrested for vandalism.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡️ - Military summary says Klishchiivka doomed to fall to Russia following advances in nearby fields.

🇫🇮🇫🇷🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 - Finland says support France’s position on Ukraine.

🇦🇷 - Javier Milei signed a decree increasing his salary by 48%.

🇷🇺🇺🇦⚡- Missile Alert in Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts, Russian officials says.

— 🇮🇱/🇵🇸 A few important notes on the approval of plans to invade Rafah:

1. Approval of the plans does not necessarily mean that it will happen any time soon, but simply that the operational plans have been approved, in case the green light is given at any point.

2. Hamas has reportedly done a new ceasefire deal proposal, and the messaging regarding action in Rafah might be Israel's way to pressure Hamas into accepting a deal, signaling that a deal may not be a possibility for much longer.

3. The United States likely wants to finish constructing its artificial port in Gaza before any Israeli invasion of Rafah takes place.

4. The IDF currently does not have enough forces concentrated near Rafah to mount an offensive in the immediate timeframe.

5. Egypt will likely take strong diplomatic actions of protest, considering that Rafah is part of a no-go zone for the IDF according to the 1979 Camp David Accords.

@Middle_East_Spectator

🇦🇪🇾🇪🇸🇴⚡️ - Intelligence Online says that UAE plans to create 3000 men strong special forces and to deploy them to Yemen and Somalia.

🇫🇷🇪🇺 - Macron, Strategic Autonomy and European Security
by Rerum Novarum Staff

Earlier this year, support for continued Ukrainian aid began to falter within the halls of the United States Congress. A bipartisan aid package was shot down by Republican congressmen in the Senate, meaning that for the foreseeable future Ukraine’s war effort will be devoid of much needed materiel support from the United States.

Whilst marking a significant shift in the policy of the United States regarding the war, it also has prompted Europe to take its defense and security more seriously. Specifically Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, has recently declared that France can and will consider deploying troops to Ukraine if the situation becomes dire enough. This declaration is a radical departure from NATO’s position on the conflict, which is to provide materiel support to Ukraine, whilst falling short of actually deploying their military forces. Macron’s declaration has been met with mixed reactions from other European leaders, notably condemnation from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Some have begun to speculate about the destiny of the NATO alliance, as well as the changing relationship between the United States and its European allies.

America’s Emerging Pivot East

The great power competition between the United States and China has been accelerating in recent years, due in no small part to the Trump administration and its focus on confronting China. The change in American policy towards China, from one of tacit assistance and mutual benefit to one of competition and adversarialism, was generally initiated under the Obama administration and its 2012 Pivot to East Asia policy, seeking to strengthen the position of the United States in East Asia by shoring up its alliances and strategic partnerships, specifically with those nations which border China. In the Trump administration Elbridge Colby, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense and Force Development, was instrumental in focusing Trump’s foreign policy on confronting China. Described as a realist, Colby believes the United States should settle its ongoing conflicts in Europe and Middle East to ensure it can fully commit to containing the threat from China. Other high profile figures, such as Tucker Carlson and Vivek Ramaswamy, have supported this position.

The 2024 election, therefore, could actually make a difference in a field of policy which enjoys high rates of bipartisan agreement. A Trump administration will likely seek to establish a peace deal with Russia on behalf of Ukraine, cutting whatever losses it deems necessary in order to complete its eastward pivot. These interests clearly conflict with those of France, with Macron stating on French television that under no circumstances is a Russian victory acceptable, instead being an existential crisis to European security. He is also of the belief that Europe alone can guarantee its security, attempting to fill a potential void left by the United States with his vision of Strategic Autonomy.

European Strategic Autonomy

Macron’s recent statement is not a one-off comment or isolated incident. Quite to the contrary, Macron has been vocal about European “Strategic Autonomy”, meaning the ability for Europe to make decisions regarding its security and foreign policy independently of the United States. The French President first began to articulate his vision of Strategic Autonomy in 2017, drawing on an idea which has been debated in French foreign policy circles since the early 1990’s. He generated controversy by using the term to distance France, and by extension Europe, from the brewing conflict in the South China Sea between Taiwan and China, citing the fact that Europe is an ally, not a vassal, of the United States.

But what exactly would Strategic Autonomy look like? In a world where European defense and security lies on the backburner for the United States, Strategic Autonomy could look like a French led NATO alliance focused primarily on countering any threats emanating from Russia and rolling back its influence in Europe. A EURO-NATO bloc, merging both European Union and NATO membership, could potentially emerge, with the United States playing a formal role as a historically important member, if at all.

Strategic Autonomy would not necessarily be a negative development for the regime in Washington. Threatened by both China and Russia, and finding itself unable to deal with both threats at the same time to their fullest extent, passing off European defense to its strongest ally will allow it to complete its pivot to East Asia whilst being sure Russia will not be unchecked in Eastern Europe.

France and Russia: Global Competitors

What may go unnoticed in recent discussions surrounding France and its foreign policy is the ongoing diplomatic conflict between France and Russia in the Sahel. Following the Second World War, France found itself in a weakened position and as such, began to grant independence to its African and Asian colonies. In Western Africa, this process was conducted mostly peacefully, and as such France maintained close ties to the newly independent African governments. These ties have remained until the current day, however in recent times some of these nations, referred to as the Francafrique, have experienced pro-Russian coups. Specifically, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have all cut ties with France and the other pro-French African governments in favor of Moscow.

All three nations have withdrawn from the G5 Sahel, a military alliance which worked closely with France during Operation Barkhane, France’s counterinsurgency operation against Al-Qaeda in the region. More recently, the three nations have declared their intention to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), an economic organization dedicated to the economic integration and cooperation between its 15 member states.

Russian support for the coup governments began to pick up during the 2023 Niger coup. Previously, Mali and Burkina Faso’s coups had been staged relatively independently of foreign intervention, with Russian military advisors and personnel entering the countries after French forces had left. In 2023, however, Russia was more willing to openly support the coup attempt, with officials like Dmitry Peskov and Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prighozin proclaiming it a victory for anti-Western, anti-colonial efforts. Protestors could be seen voicing support for Wagner and flying Russian flags. When military intervention into the three countries was floated in 2023, Niger invited Wagner forces into the country, essentially acting as a guarantee against ECOWAS’ threats.

Tying it Together

One may wonder what this African theater has to do with the war in Ukraine and France’s EURO-NATO ambitions. For France, the Sahel region is a key interest given its richness in strategic resources. Niger is the seventh largest producer of uranium and an exporter of natural gas, much of which powers France. Mali sits on potentially one of the largest lithium deposits in the world, being crucial to the future production of electric vehicles. Guinea is the world’s second largest bauxite producer, a material necessary in alumina production. To France, Russia’s growing influence in the region is depriving it of energy sources and strategic resources, and if its influence grows unchecked, France could find itself locked out of this resource rich region.

If Russia is halted in Ukraine and eventually repulsed, at the least there will be internal conflicts in Russia, at the most Russia could experience a regime change. Russia may also find it more difficult to expand into the Sahel and other regions of Africa, as anti-Western regimes may be less likely to trust Russian forces, such as PMC Wagner, with their security. A defeat for Russia in Ukraine means a defeat for Russia worldwide, and likewise for France. If the West fails in repulsing Russia from Eastern Ukraine, anti-French forces in the Sahel and elsewhere may become emboldened to break away from Paris.

France has been the black sheep of Europe since the end of the Second World War. It has often chafed under the Anglo-dominated liberal world order, seeking still to assert itself as a global power. At this current time, France will need to find a way to bring the other powerful European states, most importantly Germany and Poland, in line with its vision of Strategic Autonomy. If it can successfully do so, and if the United States fully commits to its Asian pivot, likely under a future Trump administration, the Macronian vision of a Europe led by France may in fact become a reality, and with it one of the largest geopolitical developments of the 21st century.

🇷🇺 - 41% of the eligible population has voted in the General Elections, (as of 2pm Moscow time, Day 2, of 3).

Four polling stations were attacked with drone strikes in the Russian-held Kherson region.

Three of the four new territories have had incredible turnouts so far, Kherson (69%), Donetsk (69%), Zaporozhye (56%). Lugansk region has seen a lower turnout (36%).

62,000 Russians from 41 countries abroad have voted so far.

🇷🇺 - "I am confident that our people, the people of Russia, will respond to this with even greater unity," – Vladimir Putin, referring to Western and Ukrainian interference, online and physical (through military raids).

🇷🇺⚡- Sirens and drone strikes heard across the Belgorod and Kursk regions.