🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 1/3:

Currently Rerum Novarum is forecasting the Midterm results as follows:
House: 240 D - 195 R
Senate: 50 D - 50 R
Governor Races: 26 D - 24 R

As election day rapidly approaches the GOP chances for a comeback quickly are fading to zero. We have expanded our house forecast to Democrats winning 240 seats, however we are now predicting that Susan Collins re-election in Maine will save the GOP majority in the Senate, so long as Vivek Ramaswamy doesn't destroy the entire GOP ticket in Ohio and Iowa splits its vote.

We have also switched the Governors race in Georgia to the GOP as Rick Jackson looks like he will defeat the former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Bottoms. The Democrats however will control the majority of Governorships for the first time in over 16 years.

When analyzing the trends and behavior of both parties we are seeing the GOP deep on defense heavily spending on GOTV efforts in Republican territory in order to stave off a total collapse. Trump himself is also campaigning mainly in red states like Iowa and Mississippi only visiting North Carolina and Michigan once.

Despite the GOP in clear retreat, campaigns in swing states and even blue states fending for themselves are finding some life in a heavily negative environment. Many pollsters and commentators are saying that the GOP will not fare nearly as poorly in blue states as expected while being given a huge wakeup call in red territory.

We agree with this analysis, voter enthusiasm in red America is in the toilet and GOP politicians return home to angry residents everyday complaining about corruption, gas prices, and the Iran War. However local anger at Democrat leadership and the continued deterioration of blue states are giving the GOP a little leg to stand on in enemy territory.

An NBC survey which polled respondents based on if they would vote this year or not found that the large group of Americans who will not vote this November lean heavily Republican.

This NBC survey also found that 71% of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, 82% say their finances are worse than last year, and show Trump's approval below 35% on every top issue including cost of living, the economy, corruption, AI, and the Iran War.

The only high point in polling on Trump in any survey is on the border and immigration, where he has an approval rating anywhere between 44%-50% depending on the survey.

What must be mentioned however is that in every single election during the Trump era, the GOP as a party have outran Trump's approval ratings. This happened in 2016 when the GOP House won the popular vote while he lost it, in 2020 when the GOP was only 40,000 votes in a few districts away from winning the majority, and in 2022 when the GOP won the House popular vote by 3 points while Trump remained a pariah.

Whether this trend holds up this year is up for debate, but an argument for why it may happen again is that Trumpism is clearly in its twilight days, we will expand on this in another post.

The GOP's closing message for the campaign is nonexistent with Trump's promise of a $5000 check to all adults being denounced by virtually all GOP candidates. Major missteps from the Admin including the planned then cancelled live execution of the Fort Hood terrorist and Trump/Vance's defense of the Ramaswamy ad attacking Amy Acton for being raped as a pre-teen have put GOP candidates on the backfoot in almost every case.

The only positives for the GOP is candidate quality in certain key races on the Democrat side in Michigan, and Maine. Although we expect Abdul El-Sayed to win it is still very possible for Mike Rogers to pull out a majority saving victory for the GOP. Susan Collins democrat opponent in Maine has failed to put up a successful offense.

🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 2/3:

Although we have James Talarico winning in Texas it is still entirely possible that Ken Paxton can win, the early voting numbers have been getting better for the GOP in the state however surveys are showing that a sizable chunk of Republicans in Texas will be voting for Talarico.

Anecdotally on the ground however there are not nearly as many Talarico signs or bumper stickers seen around as there were for Beto O’ Rourke in 2018 which saw the closest a Democrat has come to winning in years.

Even though Trump’s campaign arms and Elon Musk have pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the election at the 11th hour this spending seems to have not moved the needle in any meaningful way.

However as said before this money going into Get Out The Vote efforts will help the GOP come election day.

🇺🇸🗳⚡️- RN's Midterm Forecast With A Week And A Half To Go 3/3:

Why we think this election will be the first real nail in the coffin for Trumpism.

It has been said so many times it's become a meme, “the walls are closing in” “No way he wiggles out of this jam!” etc. This time it's not a joke, the armor that Trump has had around him for a decade is clearly slipping off.

Trump’s approval by his own 2024 voters continues to rapidly decline, damaged by the nonstop rampant corruption and the Iran War.

Trump approval within the GOP, despite remaining strong on paper, is actually at its lowest since 2015 before he won the 2016 primary. The Iran War in particular has nuked his bedrock fanatical support within the GOP base when looking at not only surveys but also via multiple anecdotes on AM radio talk shows who get callers every day saying they feel betrayed by the war, and that the corruption is becoming unignorable.

GOP activists at the local level are also reporting to their bosses and complaining on social media that normal GOP voters are increasingly slamming the doors in their face and voicing discontent with the tone and behavior of the Trump Admin.

Anecdotally, one of our writers who lives in a red area reports that for the first time in a decade almost all the Trump flags are gone, only a few remain despite signs supporting local GOP candidates still standing.

It may seem stupid and a media talking point at first, but the Ballroom issue has actually been extremely damaging to Trump and his brand as it became a status symbol of unapologetic corruption and apathy from the Admin.

When looking at the RCP average of his approval this term we can actually see that the permanent falloff began in late September/October of last year when the privately funded construction on the Ballroom began during the long Government shutdown.

Political corruption has become a top issue in this election for the first time since 2016, when Trump himself campaigned heavily on Hillary Clinton and Obama’s corruption. Now however after 2 years of crypto scams, pardon deals, tax carve outs, tariff carve outs, even immigration enforcement carve outs for industries that pay him off, his brand as an outsider coming in to destroy the system has been permanently lost.

This energy was what powered his rise and domination of the GOP. Without it its clear that his days as king maker are nearing its end.

The Iran War has also destroyed any illusion that he is anti-war and an independent actor. Virtually all non-zionist GOP voters are becoming squishy if not openly against the war, even major zionist figures such as Peter Theil see the writing on the wall and have disavowed the war.

The issues of Trump's second term are also more visibly self inflicted than in his first. You can make an extremely good argument that his first term was sabotaged by the GOP who hated him, Russiagate, and dozens of other events out of his control. This cannot be said by any reasonable person this term.

All that said Trump still has 2 years to go as President, despite the midterm results. However its clear that as he ages any filters he had are going away and he is acting more erratic and angry in public in ways that were never visible in his 40+ year career as a public figure.

Trump's humor and charisma helped carry him through decades, as he loses this he will also lose his personality cult. What comes after is the big question.

🇵🇸🇮🇱⚡- The IDF demolished a building adjacent to the site of the shooting attack at the entrance to Hebron, claiming that the perpetrators used it to hide and monitor the Israeli forces stationed at the checkpoint.