🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡️- BREAKING: Israel planned a major bombing campaign against Iran on October 10, but the attack was halted by President Trump, according to the Financial Times.

The strikes would have targeted Iranian civilian and military infrastructure.

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- “Iran is not an evil regime. They’re a religious theocracy whose practice and content we respect. The adversarial role the IRGC has with Israel has been a problem.” - U.S. Envoy to Turkey Tom Barrack.

🇦🇺⚡️- The husband of Australian MP Helen Haines, who was attacked in a terrorist attack, has confirmed that both of her legs have been amputated as a result of her injuries.

Her husband also stated that Helen is alive and in stable condition after the amputation.

🇸🇾🇮🇱⚡- For the past four to five days, southern Syria has seen intense Israeli military activity. Waves of transport helicopters have been landing in Druze-held As-Suwaida, under cover from Israeli fighter jets and drones. Some of this jet movement has been misidentified as Israeli simulations and exercises against Iran.

In the last 48 hours, the Druze National Guard has sealed off Tal al-Qleib, Jabal al-Arab’s fourth-highest peak, barring civilians from approaching it or photographing the surrounding area.

Tal al-Qleib was a former Syrian air defence radar base, heavily bombed by Israel in October 2024 during Assad's era, and hit again as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham swept into Damascus. Its fortifications are still intact, with the site being surveyed by Israeli Druze. Syrian sources claim, though unconfirmed, that Israel has flown advanced weapons systems onto the summit, including radars.

The view from the top commands a look of over 40 km, across most of the Hauran plain, including the former Syrian army 5th Division base at Izra’, Dara'a province. An advanced radar there would also give Israel early warnings of Iranian ballistic missiles coming in from the east.

Over the past few days, multiple Israeli and Syrian outlets have reported that the Druze National Guard are preparing for a possible offensive against the Syrian government. While a march on Damascus looks very unlikely, a push west, down onto the Hauran plain towards Dara'a, is entirely possibility.

Map key:
Purple: Israeli-controlled southern Syria post-Assad.
Green: Damascus-controlled Syria.
Blue: Druze National Guard (Israeli + UAE backed).

Rerum Novarum’s proprietary maps are now available at MINIMAP.TECHNOLOGY

🇺🇸🇷🇺⚡- Tomorrow, October 22, the first Russian tanker carrying 40,000 tonnes of diesel leaves port, bound for the United States, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has announced. The crossing to the US East Coast should take around three weeks. It’s the first tranche of 300,000 tonnes promised for October under the Trump–Putin deal.

The shipment to the US violates Moscow's own ban on diesel exports which has been in place since July. The ban has been extended three times in barely three months as Ukrainian drones knocked out huge chunks of its refining capacity. It has reached a point where Russia is now sending its crude to Kazakhstan to be refined there, with around 70% of the resulting diesel shipped straight back to Russia at higher price.

🇮🇷🇮🇶⚡- A tanker was struck by a projectile southeast of al-Faw, Iraq, in the Gulf. No damage reported, with the crew safe, UKMTO reports.

🇮🇶🇮🇷⚡- On the orders of Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Baghdad has closed its main southern land border crossing with Iran until further notice. The reason for the closure is to stop the "smuggling of prohibited materials". Baghdad has stated other border crossings with Iran will also gradually close.

🇮🇶🇮🇷⚡- "Iraq will not allow its territory to be used to threaten neighboring countries [Saudi Arabia] and will not embrace any armed group [Iran-backed militias] participating in a specific conflict," - Iraq's Government Spokesman.

🇹🇷🇱🇾⚡- Turkey and eastern Libya's House of Representatives, HoR, have both ratified the controversial maritime agreement between the two countries.

Libya's HoR passed the martime boundary agreement unanimously just two weeks after HoR Speaker Aguila Saleh was removed from his post. Saleh had long opposed Turkish influence in the country, western Libya's GNU, and maintained high-level relations with Cairo and Athens instead. Saleh rejected the maritime agreement with Ankara in 2019 and 2020.

Israeli, Egyptian and Greek Foreign Ministries have all condemned the agreement.

"Israel strongly condemns the decision of the Libyan House of Representatives to ratify the Maritime Jurisdiction Memorandum between Turkey and Libya.

This agreement infringes upon the sovereign rights of our close allies in the region.

Regretfully, once again we see Turkey working to destabilise the east Mediterranean region," - Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

🇮🇱⚡- Benjamin Netanyahu has called on Ofer Winter to resign from the race ahead of next week's elections.

🇮🇱⚡- Netanyahu met Moti Leitner of HaTzibur HaHaredi last night and urged him to quit the race so right-wing votes aren’t wasted.

🇮🇱 - Latest polling average (last 10 polls published yesterday):

Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) - 22 seats
Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) - 22 seats
B'Yachad (Naftali Bennett + Yair Lapid) - 12 seats
Democrats (Yair Golan) - 9 seats
Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir) - 9 seats
Shas (Aryeh Deri) - 8 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Avigdor Lieberman) - 8 seats
Joint List (Yousef Jabareen) - 8 seats
Yahadut HaTorah (Ya'akov Asher) - 7 seats
Tkuma (Bezalel Smotrich) - 6 seats
Ra'am (Mansour Abbas) - 5 seats

Likud-bloc: 51 seats (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, Tkuma)
Yashar-bloc: 51 seats (Yashar, B'Yachad*, Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu)
Arab-coalition: 13 seats (Joint List, Ra'am).

*Assuming Bennett join's an Eisenkot-led bloc.

🇨🇦⚡️- Bioware announces they are closing their studio.

Go woke, go broke.

🇮🇷⚡️- Visual confirmation of ballistic missile movements in Lorestan Province, western Iran.

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡️- Dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refueling tankers flew near the Iranian border in a “show of force” earlier this week. The Israelis appeared to want Iran to fire on their aircraft and trigger an escalation, according to a U.S. source who spoke to Axios.

Iranian jets were scrambled near the border but did not fire on enemy aircraft.

🇮🇱⚡- In a major blow to Likud, Ofer Winter and Moti Leitner have both decided against withdrawing from the elections.

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️- "We are in the stage of preparing to unveil the ‘father of all bombs’. This is something new for the enemy.” - IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi.