🇪🇸🇫🇷🇷🇺⚡️- The CIA reportedly warned Spain, France and Italy that Russia may use drones from ships in the Mediterranean Sea to target key infrastructures. The drone type used would likely be the Gerbera.

There are hints Russia would use its influence in Algeria or Libya to facilitate the strikes.

Visual by the source, El Mundo.

🇷🇴🇺🇦🇷🇺⚡️- A drone entered Romania and crashed near Solca, Suceava county, earlier today. The drone flew for about 4 minutes after breaching the Romanian airspace from Ukraine.

The drone is currently being studied by local authorities to determine its origin.

🇩🇰🇷🇺⚡️- According to Danish intelligence, a Russian invasion of a NATO country is no longer impossible.

From the same report, the Danish military intelligence urges public and private actors to prepare for a large-scale intensification of hybrid warfare across all of Europe.

🇪🇺🇷🇺 - Over the past 10 days, public officials across Europe have shared that new data hints at an increased risk of the Russo-Ukrainian war degenerating into a European War. Those comments were initially made by governments or country leaders before being backed by statements from intelligence agencies from France, the Baltic nations, Scandinavian nations, Germany and NATO.

The national agencies seem to have different stances on when the hybrid warfare conducted by Russia will escalate but they all agree it will happen. The estimated time frames of the escalation range from several weeks to several months, to 2031.

Fears of a Russian invasion have also sparked international debates on whether this is feasible or not. So far, agencies have mostly shared insights on hybrid warfare and barely speculated on a ground invasion.

Rerum Novarum estimates those reports to be founded on verified data. The hybrid warfare waged by Russia has already picked up the pace in the past weeks, and seemingly accelerated even more this month.

Ground invasions remain, for now, out of the equation. The most explosive action on the ground that Rerum Novarum anticipates is a possible takeover of the Suwalki Gap to link the Kaliningrad enclave to Belarus, or a hostile takeover of Narva in Estonia. Prior to such events, or larger ones, the international community would see obvious buildups from satellite imagery near points of tension. This is not the case for now. However, news outlets did indicate that hospitals were being prepared for wartime measures in St. Petersburg, Germany and France alongside new efforts from Baltic countries to prepare mass evacuations.

Russia seems to have serious plans to test NATO's will to invoke Article 5 alongside European unity. Fully escalating the war in Ukraine to the rest of Europe is neither in their interest nor in their capacity. However, using European (and NATO) internal struggles to further sap the unity of the West seems like an achievable goal for Moscow.

🇾🇪🇸🇦🇸🇩⚡- Initial reports indicate that at least two Saudi and several Sudanese security personnel from the Rapid Support Forces, RSF, at the al-Tuwal border crossing have succumbed to injuries sustained during last night’s attacks.

Ansarullah forces heavily shelled the Saudi border area overnight, a region that witnessed frequent al-Houthi ground incursions between 2015 and 2022.

Rerum Novarum’s proprietary maps are now available at MINIMAP.TECHNOLOGY

🇺🇸⚡️- The White House has restored media access to all outlets that were previously barred.

🇮🇷⚡️- Initial reports of ballistic missile launches from Urmia, northwestern Iran.

🇮🇷⚡️- Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force is conducting missile tests.

🇪🇹⚡- Tigray Defense Forces aligned troops have captured Tsemera, Sekota direction, Tigray-Amhara regional border.

The Tigray separatist forces are now just 19km from the city of Sekota.

🇪🇹⚡- Several Ethiopian airstrikes against TPLF's Army 60 positions in the Sheraro area, northwest Ethiopia.

🇲🇱⚡- Heavy clashes are raging around Savare in central Mali after JNIM and the FLA launched a large-scale assault on the city earlier today. The fighting remains ongoing.

🇮🇷🇴🇲⚡️- An explosion was heard in the Strait of Hormuz moments ago.

🇰🇿⚡- During a Kazakh military exercise in the Caspian Sea, 19 soldiers were swept out to sea. Nine have died and three have been rescued, while a search operation remains underway for the seven soldiers still missing.

🇺🇸🇱🇹⚡️- "A US heavy battalion with Abrams tanks and an engineer battalion will deploy to Lithuania." - Lithuanian Ministry of Defense on X.

🇺🇸🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡️- “We will close the Bab al-Mandab Strait and consider any American interests to be targets if the United States militarily intervenes to assist Saudi Arabia." - Houthi military adviser to AFP.

🇮🇷🇴🇲⚡️- Several explosions heard in the Strait of Hormuz, simultaneously, Iranian missiles have been launched from Sirik, southern Iran.

🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡️- Alerts in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

🇨🇴🇮🇷🇮🇱⚡- Colombia joins Peru as the second South American nation to cut all diplomatic relations with Iran.

🇾🇪🇸🇦⚡- The chiefs of staff of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are holding an emergency meeting as Ansarullah’s attacks on the Saudi Kingdom intensify, likely to produce the Mecca Agreement’s most severe joint condemnation on a piece of paper yet.

🇺🇸🇫🇷🇮🇷⚡- "Macron acknowledged that the strikes on Russian refineries have an impact on prices, but recalled that the price increase is primarily caused by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz," - AFP.