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🇺🇸🗳⚡️- 6 Weeks Out From The Midterms, Here Is Where We Believe Things Are At.

Currently Rerum Novarum is forecasting the Midterm results as follows:
House: 228 D - 207 R
Senate: 51 D - 49 R
Governor Races: 27 D - 23 R

A solid popular vote win for Dems hands them a gain of 14 House seats, 5 Senate seats, and control of most State Governorships since the Obama Administration.

The situation continues to deteriorate rapidly for Trump and the GOP as the Iran War becomes more unpopular, Trumps corruption becomes unignorable to the average voter, and gas prices continue to skyrocket.

Trump and the GOP are also absorbing the growing backlash to Israeli control of US policy, as well as the slopulist zeitgeist against the data center buildout/AI, and the Epstein files.

Democrats despite remaining more unpopular as a party than the GOP are now trusted more on every major issue with the exception of immigration and border security according to all available public polling.

Rerum made the mistake last year of putting too much faith in polls which caused us to miss just how dominant Democrat wins would be in Virginia and New Jersey, to compensate for this in our forecast we are now analyzing the activities of campaign workers and following trails of party spending to confirm or deny where candidates are on defense and offense.

The GOP campaigns in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina are currently in retreat in their respective Senate and Governor races. Vivek Ramaswamy is struggling to attract campaign volunteers in Ohio, a GOP official in Michigan was just fired from his positions due to publicly airing his despair at GOP voter enthusiasm being in the toilet.

Despite Trump and his campaign arms sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars for the entire year leading up to this point, he has only just in the last week began spending large amount of money on advertising and other campaign expenditures. Democrats have had nearly uncontested airwaves for months.

Although early voting has only been going on for a few days in states such as Virginia and trying to read into those numbers is not as accurate as they were in 2021 and 22, it should still be noted that a lack of GOP enthusiasm is noticeable in the returns we have so far.

If there is any good news for the GOP its that a good majority of undecided voters are either GOP friendly demographics or Trump 24 voters who can still be turned out. There is also 2028 to consider.

An underdiscussed reason that 2024 was so dominant for the GOP was that voters did not feel like they got a message across to the Biden Admin in 2022 due to the Democrats overperformance, a solid destruction of the GOP this year may satisfy voters bloodlust and allow the party to regroup for 28 similar to how Obama responded to 2010. The odds of this happening while Trump is leader of the party however is 0.

We will update our forecast and continue covering developments as the elections draw near.