Election Wizard
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MIAMI (NBC) โ€” Florida Democrats are fretting over Republican Gov. Ron DeSantisโ€™ popularity among Latinos, saying they are boosting his chances of becoming the first Republican governor in 20 years to win traditionally blue Miami-Dade County...
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BREAKING: President Donald J. Trump's newly refurbished plane "Trump Force One" flies over the Save America Rally in Robstown, TX.
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BREAKING: Alberta, Canada, becomes the world's first government to formally apologize for violating the civil rights of unvaccinated people.

Today, Premier Selene Galas apologized for harming unvaccinated workers' rights. She offered them their jobs back and said discussions are underway about dismissing all lockdown prosecutions.
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JUST IN: CDC Director Walensky tests positive for Covid ~ a month after receiving the new bivalent booster.

The booster product was tested only on eight mice, and all eight mice contracted COVID.
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Here's a few encouraging midterm signals:

(1) 2021 Virginia and New Jersey elections results.

Off-year contests have a solid history of predicting a partisan swing the following year. Example: GOP governor wins in 1993, and 2010 foreshadowed massive sweeps in 1994 and 2010.


(2) Voter registration trends, a measure of voter enthusiasm and GOTV efforts, show massive momentum to the right.

Across the country from Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, West Virginia, and even Oregon, DEM are hemorrhaging badly while REP are picking up voters in droves.


(3) Primary turnout data, which has historically been a reliable indicator, shows an enormous swing to the right.

GOP turnout is up 19% over 2018, while DEM turnout is down 7%.


(4) After weeks of a dead heat, REP captured a commanding lead this week in the generic congressional ballot.

In 2014, a 6-point REP popular victory produced a 13-seat gain in the House. In 2010, a 7-point win led to REP picking up 63 seats.


(5) Party affiliation is shifting REP. Gallup's "Do you consider yourself a REP, a DEM, or INDY?" shows REP leads DEM by 6 points.

One year ago, it was tied.

Follow: @electionwizard
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TRUMP: "The Democrats will defund the police, the Republicans will defund the cartels."
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TRUMP: "Before our very eyes, Biden and his Left-wing handlers are turning America into a police state...I used to say socialist...we're not socialist anymore; we're communist...This is a communist system that we're putting up with right now."

https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1583992982721609728?s=20&t=XDam23KcKwLt-2msmr1d0A
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Trump on 2024 run: "And now, in order to make our country safe, successful, and glorious again, I will probably have to do it again."
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US District Court Judge Doughty: "[P]ublicly available emails that prove that Dr. Fauci was communicating and acting as an intermediary for others in order to censor information from being shared across multiple social-media outlets."
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New ABC News/Ipsos poll: Leading into the midterm elections, 36% of Americans trust Republicans to do a better job for the economy, while 24% trust Democrats.

On the issue of crime, 35% of respondents say they trust Republicans, while 22% trust Democrats.
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The Republican establishment would rather lose gracefully to Democrats than allow some Republicans, like Blake Master, to win and have a seat at the table.
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Currently, Dems are NOT voting their numbers in FL or NC.

2020 Mail & Early In-Person:
- FL mail at this point was 49-30% D/R.
- NC in-person was 44-29% D/R.

Present:
- FL mail is 42-38% D/R.
- NC IP is 39-32% D/R.
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This morning on Face the Nation, Nancy Pelosi said she does not want you to talk about inflation. Focus on instead on the issues that matter like Ukraine and the climate, plebs.
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One reason Democrats are scrambling is that, as with the presidency, the GOP can lose the national popular vote by 3 to 4 pts & still win Congress. Thus, recent polls showing the GOP tied or leading in the generic ballot puts Democrat majorities at extreme risk.
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Compared to 2018, GOP primary voters in 2022 turned out in higher numbers than Democrats and "flipped" these seven states: Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia.
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