9RD Analytics
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Fundamental market analytics.
Twitter: https://twitter.com/9rd_analytics
Have any questions? Ask away! @vlt99
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When analyzing a crypto project, analysts study almost everything: the team, tokenomics, onchain data, the audit of smart contracts, the community. But very often they forget about the most important thing.
And what is the most important thing about a cryptoproject? The same as for an ordinary company - the product.
What product does the project in question produce? What benefits does it bring? If we put aside its promotional prospectus for investors, why do we, ordinary consumers, need it?

The answer to this question is the most important one. Because if the company doesn't have a clear product and a transparent business model, where will the profit come from? By manipulating the token? Then this project is a scam. You can take a risk and try to speculate, but it is not an investment. And if you don't get out of such a project in time, the loss of money is inevitable.

You may argue, but what about Dogecoin and other shitcoins, where traders earn x10 and x100? Of course, every rule has its exceptions. Considering that there are about 13,000 tokens today, not all of them are based on useful products. For example, there is a category of meme-coins whose value is supported solely by the holders' faith in them. In the case of Dogecoin, this is an inexplicable sympathy (or diabolical plan) on the part of Ilon Musk . But the time of the Wild West in the crypto world is gradually passing.

Only a product that people want and are willing to pay for is the basis of a successful business.
Understanding this simple concept immediately makes project analysis easier. Now we need to understand what kind of product the project offers, which customer segment it is designed for, whether there is an MVP, whether there are product sales, etc. That way we can analyze the market and the product's prospects in that market.

And only then, if we come to the conclusion that the project is not another scam, not a Ponzi scheme, can we start analyzing tokenomics and everything else.
#product
Now we are studying the CurveFinance crypto-project. It is one of the most ambitious protocols we have worked on. Huge ecosystem, large number of earning strategies, great example of interconnected network of smart contracts. When we finish the report, we'll share with you some findings on Curve and the CRV token.
#curve #CRV
Anyone want to learn cryptanalysis in practice?
DM @vlt99
The Curve Finance protocol report is finished. A lot of work has been done, studied:
* the principle of the protocol
* the basic schemes of earnings in Curve
* veCRV token role
* what is Curve wars
* team
* investors
* security and audit
* Github
* protocol stats
* financial metrics
* tokenomics
* comparison with competitors - Uniswap and Pancakeswap

Conclusions were drawn, here are some of them:
1. The team is able to generate innovative ideas and develop the project.
2. At the moment Curve is a system capable of effectively generating income in the form of swap fees. Therefore, as an asset for long-term investment, the CRV token looks promising.
3. Investors inclined to long investment periods should consider participation in liquidity farming schemes either in Curve itself or in one of the protocols using its pools (Convex, Yearn, Compound, etc.).
4. A trigger for a rise in the price of CRV and speculative short-term earnings could be the release of the crvUSD stabelcoin.
5. Only after August 2024 will inflation decrease from 12-13% to 4% or less. Therefore, more active growth of CRV price is possible after the mentioned period.

#Curve #CRV
One of our posts already had information about TVL, what this metric is and how to use it. TVL is the main metric with which to compare other financial indicators of a crypto project.
When we analyze networks that have a volume of locked funds, we use the network's fees to TVL ratio. What information can such a ratio give us?
Recall, TVL is the amount of capital raised in the network. This is the funds locked in staking and in various Dapps (if we are talking about blockchain), etc. That is, all of the assets that are currently in a particular network.

For each transaction, the network charges a fee, which is the network's revenue. It can then dispose of this revenue as it sees fit. Often networks share part of their fees with their token holders or with stackers (e.g., Curve). They can reward validators or buy their tokens off the market. This is not important in the context of this post. What is important to understand is that fees are revenue for the network.
So the Fee/TVL ratio shows how effectively the network uses the attracted capital. For example, if TVL=$1 billion and the network's daily revenue is $10000, it is easy to calculate that the efficiency equals 0.001%.
One could argue that many networks strive to set the lowest fees, and this would decrease the Fee/TVL ratio. Right, but in that case, the network should strive to increase the number of transactions.
The TVL of the two largest financial protocols, Curve and Uniswap, was $3.8bn and $3.36bn, respectively, as of mid-December 2022. That is, approximately the same. And Curve's swap volume for the year was $33.09 billion, and Uniswap's was $530.5 billion. 16 times higher! And Curve's fees revenue for 2022 was $108.8 million and Uniswap's was $780.8 million.
That's even though Uniswap's fees are higher. The conclusion is that there are reasons why Uniswap is more attractive to its customers.

P.S. The data is taken from our Curve Finance analyst report. If you're interested in getting the full report, contact @vlt99.

#TVL
We want to create a community of people who are interested in analyzing crypto projects. If you want to learn how to do it, we will be happy to share our knowledge and experience.

Why are we doing this, since we are a commercial project? Because in this way we want to find like-minded people, people who have an aptitude for this kind of activity. There is no doubt that cryptocurrencies are our future. Whoever learns how to handle them properly and effectively will profit. There will be more and more jobs in this industry. That is why we are striving to create a community of smart and thinking analysts. After all, the collective mind can achieve incredible results. Who knows, maybe you will become our partner.

We are creating a commercial product - analytical reports on various crypto projects. These reports allow you to dive into the essence and technology of a project. After studying our report, a person will understand whether this project is interesting for investment or not. We do not give financial advice, but we offer maximum information, both statistical and analytical. We will share some reports with you so that you can see how to apply in practice the knowledge we publish on this channel.

We regularly post training posts. In them we describe the tools we use ourselves. Studying them, you will be able to analyze any crypto project on your own. And your investment will depend on yourself, not on those who advertise projects for money. Losers buy by reading Influencers on Twitter, successful investors buy assets after independent study and analysis.

We have new subscribers on the channel, so we want to give you all a gift. At the bottom of the post there is a link to our Aptos blockchain report. We want to draw your attention right away, the report was created at the end of October 2022. All data is current as of that date.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1LUV6ImL3Zf1Hw7THDOiRLyc2cqisBXWA/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=100995813692212669556&rtpof=true&sd=true

P.S. If anyone is more comfortable getting our information on Twitter, follow us:
https://twitter.com/9rd_analytics

#Aptos
An analyst needs more than just knowledge to do his job. It is very important to use different tools that make research easier. There are a lot of analytical tools. We use more than 100 of them in our work, and their list is still growing. Some services are paid, some are free. Starting today, we are going to talk about the services we use. These posts will be tagged #tool. Since our subscribers have different level of knowledge, we will start with the simplest ones. More experienced cryptocurrency users are most likely already familiar with them. But our goal is to teach each of you, so we will move with you from easy to difficult.

And we will start with CoinMarketCap.com (CMC). This service is likely to be used by anyone who deals with cryptocurrencies. Some of you are using its counterpart - Coingecko. But we chose exactly CMC. So, CoinMarketCap is an aggregator of useful information about almost all cryptocurrencies that exist. As of today, it displays information for 8866 cryptocurrencies.

By going to a certain cryptocurrency page, you can get almost all the basic information about it. We will not talk about all the data, as there is a lot of it and you can explore it on your own. We will only point out the most important data.
The price of the asset and its graph. You can see the price trends, how much the price has changed since the appearance of the cryptocurrency, ATH (All Time High) and ATL (All Time Low).
Maximum and circulating supply of tokens. That is, how many tokens will ever exist and how many are in circulation now. This data allows us to estimate future inflation pressures.
Current and maximum market capitalization, 24-hour trading volume, and news related to the asset.
We will not elaborate on each parameter now, but will explore them in detail in the following posts.

On the asset page, you can find out general information about the project that issued the token and what problems it solves, about its founders. There is information about the exchanges on which the token is listed. If it is listed on a large number of exchanges, CEX and DEX, this indicates that the token has high liquidity. If the token is traded only on a few DEX, however, that is not a good sign.

But, we want to draw your attention, quality analytics is not limited to the analysis of only one parameter. The project should be studied as a whole, and only after a comprehensive analysis of all the constituent parts, you can draw a correct conclusion about the quality of the asset.
The CMC website has a lot of different token ratings: DeFi, NFT, Metaverse, Stablecoin, etc. The site also provides other products: ICO calendar, information about free airdrops, blockchain explorers.

CoinMarketCap is suitable for an initial introduction to cryptocurrency and if you dedicate yourself to cryptocurrencies, you will be constantly dealing with it.

#tool
An analytical report on Ethereum Layer 2 protocol Arbitrum was made. Data from 65 sources and 17 analytical tools were used. The result is a report of 14 A4 sheets, containing statistical and analytical information, as well as conclusions.
The main conclusions:
1. There is no official information about own token issue yet. But it is possible that Arbitrum will release it and there will be a retrodrop.
2. Arbitrum Odyssey campaign is temporarily suspended after the first stage. It is recommended to take part in further phases. The community is very much counting on Odyssey participants to take part in the retrodrop. There are 2 pages devoted to this campaign in our report.
3. We assume that Arbitrum is in no hurry to release the token because a very large amount of investment has been raised.
4. Based on the analysis of some on-chain parameters we concluded that Arbitrum's network is still not running at full capacity. That is, it can handle a significantly higher number of transactions compared to the current number.
5. Not a conclusion, but a statement of fact - commissions in the Arbitrum network are really cheap compared to Ethereum. And the ecosystem is very large, one of the networks - Arbitrum One - already has 356 dapps, including Binance, Curve, 1inch, Aave, Chainlink, etc.
6. Conclusions are drawn about the risks that users who hold their assets on the Arbitrum network may be exposed to.

If you are interested in getting the full report, contact @vlt99

Disclamer! All the above information does not represent investment advice. It is offered solely for the purpose of familiarizing oneself with Arbitrum protocol. Each investor should conduct his or her own thorough research before making a decision.

#Arbitrum
How can you improve your skills as an analyst?
To do this, you need to test your own analytical conclusions in practice. And to do this, you need to be in the market, take an active part in it. And that is exactly what we do. We are constantly monitoring the market, selecting promising in our opinion projects and include them in our work plan. After a full analysis, if the conclusions confirm our initial assumptions, we invest our own money in project tokens. Of course, to do this we need to choose the appropriate stage of the market. But throughout 2022, market conditions allowed us to acquire assets or average the prices of unprofitable positions.

Again, why are we investing our own money?
It allows us to:
-take an active part in the market;
-confirm our assumptions in practice;
-if our assumptions are justified, we can confidently recommend ourselves to our clients;
-we make a profit from investments.

We do not buy every asset we research. For example, there was a post about the Aptos blockchain. In a report that was done back in October 2022. At the time, the price of the token was about $7-8. But we clearly indicated what the price of the APT token is realistically:
"Based on the possible valuation of Aptos at $4 billion, the price of the coin should be $4. That is, now it is overestimated twice."

And what did we see? APT was down to $3.17 at the end of December 2022. That was a great entry point, today APT is worth about $16. But we had some doubts and distrust of the token. So we didn't buy it.

But to prove our words, we will point out a few assets that we have studied and think they are promising.
1. Arbitrum. The network's token has not yet been released. We have provided liquidity to the largest DEX of the protocol - GMX. GLP tokens have been received for this, which bring about 19% APR. But the goal is not those 19%, but the opportunity to participate in the Arbitrum tokens retrodrop, if it ever takes place.
2. Curve Finance. CRV bought on December 1, 2022 at $0.644.
3. Jasmy. We bought this asset for a small percentage of our investment portfolio back on July 21, 2022, as the company develops towards IoT. It is also a promising market. The purchase price was $0.009185. But then it was decided to do a detailed study of the project. The work on the report was completed in November 2022. On November 8 and November 11, 2022, we increased JASMY in our portfolio at prices of $0.004712 and $0.0038, respectively. Thus, as of today, the average purchase price is $0.0057 and is at breakeven.
4. Chia is an interesting project with Proof-of-Space consensus. It was added to our portfolio back in November 2021. Since then, the price of the asset has averaged out and we managed to get an average price of $45.69 and almost brought the position to breakeven. Today, XCH is trading at $45.5.

These are just a few examples to show that it is important not only to do theoretical analysis, but also not to be afraid to use your knowledge in practice. If you do this, you will become an experienced analyst much faster.

In addition, this experience will allow you to learn a lot about yourself. What kind of analyst are you? A long-term investor, a short-term trader or a scalper? The answers to these questions will help you figure out what information you need to learn. If you're a scalper, you don't need to study the fundamentals of a project in detail. That is, it will be useful, but for a scalper, technical analysis is more important. Conversely, if you are a long-term investor, the fundamental study of the project will determine the future gem.

Important! Everyone who trades on CEX/DEX should definitely use risk management and money management. Remember, if you managed not to lose money on the crypto market, you are already better than many others.

Disclamer: all information is for guidance only and does not constitute investment advice. The above tokens are promising only in our opinion. If you want to invest in them, do your own research.

#investment #trading
Today let's continue the topic of analytics tools. There are a lot of services that can help you analyze a crypto project or token in a good way. Some services that provide a lot of data, others specialize in a particular function. If you decide to become a professional analyst, you will have to use many different tools and services in your work. For example, our list includes 104 different tools. Today I want to introduce you one of them, we often use it in our work.

Continued in the article:
https://telegra.ph/Analytics-tools-02-11

#tool
We did a report on the Optimism project. And once again we were convinced that Ethereum Layer 2 is a strong trend and such projects have excellent prospects.
What useful things did we learn?

1. Optimism started an interesting social experiment that could become one of the flagships of the new era in web3.
2. We hypothesized at what price investors got the OP token.
3. We analyzed the project's Github, no surprises here - the team and contributors are actively developing Optimism.
4. At the beginning of 2023, there was a sharp decline in the number of transactions in the Optimism network. We figured out why this happened.
5. We hypothesized how to increase the TPS of Optimism's network.
6. We found out what part of Optimism fees is given to Ethereum.
7. We performed a comparative analysis of two Layer 2 - Optimism and Arbitrum.

The result of our work was an 18 page analytical study. We are satisfied with our work and glad that we managed to learn even more new information and expand our horizons in the world of web3.

If you'd like to get the full report, please send a request to @vlt99.

#OP
In two recent reports, we studied the Arbitrum and Optimism projects. They belong to the strong trend of Ethereum scaling. And it's not just a trend, it's a need to offload the main blockchain and reduce fees. A few days ago I had a case of delegating BIT tokens to BitDAO in Ethereum network, and the transaction fee was about $5. Fees on Ethereum are very high. That is why we decided to pay more attention to Layer 2 projects.

There are two main solutions on which L2 projects are implemented, Optimistic Rollup and zk-Rollup. Arbitrum and Optimism are implemented on the first one. Now we have started to study the projects on zk-Rollup. When the report is ready, we will share some of our conclusions.
For now, I want to draw your attention to one promising project, this is zkSync. I do not give any financial recommendations, anyone who is interested can analyze this project on their own. Just remember, Ethereum Layer 2 is an important trend in 2023.

And I also want to make an announcement of the next post. One very interesting service has recently appeared in our list of analytical tools. It has one distinctive feature that I have not seen in other applications. The next post will be devoted to this service, which will be definitely useful for everyone who is interested in cryptoanalysis. Stay tuned.
#layer2
We have a lot of work, because our main activity is cryptoanalysis. That's why there's not much time left for maintaining the channel. But all the same, we are moving towards our goal, which is to create a community of smart people.

Last time I promised you a post about one interesting cryptoanalytics service, but I will do it next time. Because today I want to show you a review we just finished. I think it will be useful for many of you. So I want to give you a chance to read it.
As you know, our last reports are related to projects that scale Ethereum, which are Optimism and Arbitrum. These two projects are built on Optimistic Rollup technology. There's a second technology, it's called zkRollup. One of the most influential people in the web3 space thinks it is the most promising. So we decided to study this technology in more detail. And also to find out which projects built on zkRollup are at an early stage and how you can interact with them to get benefits. After studying our review, you will better understand the Ethereum scaling trend. And you'll also learn what you need to do to get involved in this trend.

We want to connect with people who are interested in cryptoproject analytics. So if you have any questions, feel free to contact @vlt99.

https://telegra.ph/The-race-to-Layer-2-is-gaining-momentum-03-06

#zkrollup #layer2
I promised to tell you about an interesting project that deals with blockchain analytics. Today is the day to learn more about it and start applying it to your work.

https://medium.com/@vlt9/arkham-intelligence-faeb8123aac8

#arkham
We decided to divert a little bit from the topic of Ethereum scaling and our next report was dedicated to stablecoins. More precisely, a platform that allows anyone to launch their own stablecoin. This is the Reserve protocol. What did we learn?

We think Reserve and its RSR token are an interesting asset for investors. We speculate that the stablecoin market should reach a new stage of development. And we found out what can contribute to this development.
We have studied the dynamics of real world assets (RWA). We've learned how Reserve protects its platform stablecoins from inflation and market crises.
We explored what risks the protocol might pose.
The report is 20 pages long and 79 different tools and information sources were used.
The last time we researched the stablecoin market was in March 2022 and a lot has changed since then. Not only were we able to study Reserve in detail, but we were also able to find out what is really going on with stablecoins now.
It was an interesting job, it took a lot of time, but we are happy with the result.

If you want the full report, contact @vlt99

#Reserve #RSR #stablecoin
We finished another analyst report and studied one of the most sensational blockchains of its time. It is the Internet Computer Protocol and the ICP token. If anyone is hearing about it for the first time, here are a few facts:
1️⃣ the team has developed a unique technology that allows information to be computed and stored on decentralized nodes in the blockchain, rather than on the servers of large data center operators like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud;
2️⃣ the cost of storing data in the Internet Computer blockchain is hundreds of times less than in other blockchains;
3️⃣ the technology allows you to interact with other blockchains directly, without the help of bridges;
4️⃣ back in 2018, developers raised about $200 million in investment;
5️⃣ despite its age, blockchain still has a poorly developed dapps ecosystem; TVL is virtually non-existent.

A scandalous story involves the launch of the ICP token. A month after the event, the price of the token collapsed by more than 90%. ICP lost about $300 billion in capitalization. At the peak of FDV (fully diluted value), the token was in third place after BTC and ETH. In terms of market capitalization, it was worth as much as Mastercard, Bank of America or PayPal. The losses of investors amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars.

But the story does not end there, the denouement is very interesting. It's very much like a spy blockbuster with secret video footage, gangsters, and religious sects.

We tried to find out all the facts to have a complete picture of blockchain. And drew conclusions about whether it is worth investing your money in it.
The report turned out to be interesting and very informative.

#ICP
A week ago we finished a report on the Flow blockchain. Many of you have probably heard of it, some of you are holding a native blockchain token - FLOW. I won't write much, I'll just say two important facts.

1. Anyone who closely follows the development of web3 knows that NFT is a very powerful and promising technology. Already now non-interchangeable tokens are selling for hundreds of millions of dollars. There are collections that have already generated a billion dollars in sales. This is the NBA Top Shot, released on the same Flow. So everyone who wants to earn on cryptocurrencies, we advise to look more closely to the market NFT. Feel free to consider this as financial advice, I fully believe in it.

2. The second fact will be useful for those who hold FLOW tokens. Keep in mind that Dapper Labs, the company that owns and is the primary developer of the Flow blockchain, is being sued collectively. I won't go into the details, they're all in our report. The claim is that the NBA Top Shot collection failed the Howey test. Neither I nor my colleague are experts on American law. But judging by the Civil Case Management Plan, the case will go all the way through 2023 and 2024. So starting in 2024, we need to keep a close eye on this case. And if it's not in Flow's favor, we need to reduce our position on the token. If the court decision is bad for Dapper Labs, the token will fall in value. If the situation is not critical, FLOW can be bought back cheaper. And this point is NOT financial advice. DYOR.

The topic of NFT turned out to be interesting and we proceeded to explore another blockchain specializing in non-interchangeable tokens, Immutable. But about that next time.

#FLOW
You will be interested to know the story behind one of our investigations. A cryptocurrency company positions its native token as a global reserve currency. We put forward and substantiate the hypothesis that the project is most likely a scam.

https://medium.com/@vlt9/what-is-cypherium-cph-a-failed-project-or-a-future-gem-39bd42ac9b01

#CPH
I recently did a report on an interesting topic. You may have heard an expression like "tracking crypto whales wallet". I learned what it means and how we can use it to make money. I learned the theory and put it into practice. I got promising results in my research. And I want to share the knowledge I have with you.
We can think of blockchain as a financial system. Finance is the aggregate of all assets that reside on the web3. Finance matters not only as money, but also as financial flows. These flows have different volumes because they are created by entities with different capitalizations. Some flows are so significant and can affect the entire market or the price of a particular asset. There is such a concept as "crypto whale wallet tracking". It means that knowing about the direction of financial flows can help you make money. Now we will try to learn more about it both in theory and in practice.
We need to define some of the terms that are used in this research.

Whale
A whale is a person or organization that owns at least 10% of a particular cryptocurrency, or a person with more than $10 million in a particular cryptocurrency. This scale is relative and may differ for different cryptocurrencies. This category includes investors who, in addition to significant resources, have extensive experience and knowledge of the market. Whales are assumed to have or may have "insider knowledge," so their actions often serve as a signal to the crypto community. Though as history shows, even the smartest and most experienced of them can make mistakes.