🔴Geospatial correlation of LeT/JeM movement patterns (2024–2025) with NASA VIIRS Nighttime Lights data shows that ~75% of insurgent mobility occurs in low-radiance, low-population-density zones, indicating strategic avoidance of urban spaces, limited local support, and an increasing dependence on hinterland concealment to maintain operational viability.

ANALYSIS

📝Data Integration & Methodology

➡️Movement data for LeT/JeM elements (2024–2025) was spatially overlaid on NASA VIIRS NTL (Nighttime Lights) radiance grids.
➡️NTL intensity was used as a proxy for population density, infrastructural activity, and civilian presence.
➡️Patterns were examined across urban centers, peri-urban zones, rural settlements, forested areas, and high-altitude hinterlands.

📝Key Movement Trends

~75% of observed insurgent movement occurs in low radiance zones, which correlate with:

➡️

Sparse or negligible human habitation.

➡️

Limited infrastructure

➡️

Forested or mountainous terrain

➡️

The remaining ~25% tracks along:

➡️

Peripheral villages

➡️

Semi-urban transit corridors

➡️

Areas with intermittent civilian activity

➡️

Notably, high-radiance urban cores show minimal to no insurgent presence, suggesting deliberate route selection to avoid exposure.

📝Tactical Interpretation

The avoidance of cities reflects high perceived risk due to:

➡️

Concentration of security forces

➡️

Surveillance density

➡️

Lower likelihood of covert support networks

Reliance on hinterland routes highlights:

➡️

Use of terrain masking

➡️

Need for low-signature mobility

➡️

Dependence on natural cover for logistics, communication, and evasion.

Pattern indicates operational decentralization, consistent with groups facing attrition pressures and diminished local facilitation networks.

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