📊 High Impact News | July 1st 

🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings 
7.45M Forecast vs 7.39M Previous 

🇨🇳 Caixin Manufacturing PMI 
49 Forecast vs 48.3 Previous 

🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence 
33.6 Forecast vs 32.8 Previous 

🇯🇵 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 
10 Forecast vs 12 Previous 

🇪🇺 Core Inflation Rate YOY Flash 
2% Forecast vs 1.9% Previous 

🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI 
48.8 Forecast vs 48.5 Previous 

Key Takeaways 
▸ US labor market resilience continues with JOLTS, but ISM PMI remains in contraction, creating a mixed signal for Fed policy. 
▸ China’s Caixin PMI nears expansion, suggesting potential stabilization in manufacturing, which could lift risk sentiment in APAC markets. 
▸ Eurozone inflation ticks up, reinforcing ECB’s cautious stance, while Japan’s Tankan survey softens, weighing on JPY. 
▸ Watch for divergences in regional manufacturing trends and their implications for currency pairs and global risk appetite.

📊 High Impact News | July 3rd

🇦🇺 Balance of Trade
A$5B Forecast vs A$5.41B Previous

🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate
4.3% Forecast vs 4.2% Previous

🇺🇸 Non Farm Payrolls
110K Forecast vs 139K Previous

🇺🇸 ISM Services PMI
50.5 Forecast vs 49.9 Previous

Key Takeaways
▸ Australia’s trade surplus narrows slightly, suggesting potential softening in export demand or rising imports, which could weigh on AUD.
▸ US labor market shows mixed signals: Rising unemployment rate contrasts with strong previous NFP, indicating potential cooling but still resilient job market.
▸ ISM Services PMI edges above 50, signaling modest expansion in the services sector, which could support USD if sustained.
▸ Traders should watch for USD volatility as conflicting labor data and services growth may lead to choppy price action in FX and equities.

📊 High Impact News | July 8th

🇩🇪 Germany Balance of Trade
€18.1B Forecast vs €14.6B Previous
🇦🇺 Australia NAB Business Confidence
Previous: 2
🇦🇺 Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision
3.6% Forecast vs 3.85% Previous

Key Takeaways
▸ Germany’s trade surplus widens, signaling ongoing resilience in export sectors despite global headwinds. This could lend support to the euro, but traders should watch for any signs of softening demand from key trading partners.
▸ Australian business confidence remains subdued, reflecting persistent uncertainty in the domestic economy. The lack of a forecast highlights market caution, and any surprise in the actual reading could trigger volatility in AUD pairs.
▸ RBA’s rate decision marks a potential policy shift, with the forecasted cut to 3.6% from 3.85% suggesting a more dovish stance. This move may weigh on the Australian dollar and support risk assets, but the central bank’s forward guidance will be crucial for market direction.
▸ Cross-asset traders should monitor FX and rates closely, as today’s releases may drive short-term momentum and recalibrate expectations for the second half of 2025.

📊 High Impact News | July 9th

🇨🇳 Inflation Rate YoY
0% Forecast vs -0.1% Previous
🇺🇸 FOMC Minutes
No Forecast / No Previous

Key Takeaways
▸ China’s inflation rate stabilizes at 0% YoY, signaling a halt to the mild deflationary pressures seen previously. This flat reading suggests that domestic demand remains tepid, and the recovery is still fragile. For traders, this underscores the ongoing challenges facing the Chinese economy, with potential implications for commodity markets and regional currencies sensitive to Chinese growth.
▸ The FOMC Minutes release tonight is a key event for global markets. While there are no direct forecasts, the market will be parsing the language for any shifts in the Fed’s tone regarding inflation, growth, and the timing of potential rate cuts. Volatility in USD pairs, equities, and rates is likely to pick up around the release, as traders recalibrate expectations for the second half of the year.
▸ Stay alert for cross-asset moves as both events could drive significant price action, especially in FX and commodities. As always, risk management is paramount on days with high-impact macro releases.

📊 High Impact News | July 14th

🇦🇺 Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
No forecast vs 0.5% previous

🇨🇳 GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1
5.2% forecast vs 5.4% previous

🇨🇳 Retail Sales YoY
5.5% forecast vs 6.4% previous

🇨🇳 Industrial Production YoY
5.6% forecast vs 5.8% previous

Key things to watch:
▸ AUD could react to consumer sentiment shifts
▸ China GDP below previous may weigh on risk assets
▸ Softer retail sales could signal weaker demand
▸ Industrial output slowdown may pressure commodities

Stay tuned for real-time updates and market reaction! ⚡️