Exploring the Disparities Between Trading Fees and Tick Sizes in Market Microstructure
ltrd_ @ twitter
orig
I delved into market microstructure by analyzing BTCUSDT and CHZUSDT spots on Binance and BTCUSD perpetuals on ByBit. The study revealed significant differences in taker fees and tick sizes across these instruments. Notably, ByBit imposes a much higher taker fee, while CHZUSDT has a larger tick size compared to BTCUSDT on Binance.
Instantaneous market impact was assessed by observing how many levels in the order book vanished following market orders. For Binance's BTCUSDT, nearly 500 levels disappeared after a trade worth $3.6M, demonstrating substantial market impact. Conversely, CHZUSDT showed a maximum of only 8 levels disappearing, with negligible occurrences of high impact trades.
These findings highlight the critical role of optimal order placement for market makers. There's a vital trade-off between profit per trade and fill probability, complicating the strategy, especially when large market orders can consume numerous orders and affect trade execution. Furthermore, trading in markets with thin order books can introduce significant noise, rendering volume imbalance indicators unreliable and challenging to compare across exchanges.
It’s essential for traders, particularly market makers, to denoise such data to enhance strategy accuracy and to adapt their order placement logic depending on tick sizes. This nuanced understanding can lead to more informed trading decisions in varied market environments.
@quant_feed
ltrd_ @ twitter
orig
I delved into market microstructure by analyzing BTCUSDT and CHZUSDT spots on Binance and BTCUSD perpetuals on ByBit. The study revealed significant differences in taker fees and tick sizes across these instruments. Notably, ByBit imposes a much higher taker fee, while CHZUSDT has a larger tick size compared to BTCUSDT on Binance.
Instantaneous market impact was assessed by observing how many levels in the order book vanished following market orders. For Binance's BTCUSDT, nearly 500 levels disappeared after a trade worth $3.6M, demonstrating substantial market impact. Conversely, CHZUSDT showed a maximum of only 8 levels disappearing, with negligible occurrences of high impact trades.
These findings highlight the critical role of optimal order placement for market makers. There's a vital trade-off between profit per trade and fill probability, complicating the strategy, especially when large market orders can consume numerous orders and affect trade execution. Furthermore, trading in markets with thin order books can introduce significant noise, rendering volume imbalance indicators unreliable and challenging to compare across exchanges.
It’s essential for traders, particularly market makers, to denoise such data to enhance strategy accuracy and to adapt their order placement logic depending on tick sizes. This nuanced understanding can lead to more informed trading decisions in varied market environments.
@quant_feed
👍3
Exploring Optimal Trading Strategies and the Costs of Suboptimal Decisions in Market Impact Analysis
0xfdf @ twitter
orig
I recently reviewed two companion papers advancing our understanding of market impact: "The Cost of Misspecifying Market Impact" and "Trading with Concave Price Impact and Impact Decay." The key contributions are explicit optimal trading rules that incorporate nonlinear impact and decay, along with quantifying the "costs" of misestimating market impact.
There's an intrinsic conflict between expected returns (alpha signals) and implementation costs arising from market impact. The literature usually focuses on portfolio degradation from alpha estimation errors but overlooks the consequences of misspecifying market impact. Market impact is modeled using two critical parameters: concavity and decay, where concavity indicates that larger orders are proportionally cheaper, and decay captures the time taken for price reversion.
The classical square root model supports linear impact but lacks decay. The new model integrates the impact dynamics with a martingale approach, allowing for closed-form solutions, even with time-varying parameters. Optimal trading strategies derived from this model indicate that underestimating impact risks aggressive trading, which can erode profits, while overestimating leads to overly timid trades without major detriment.
A pivotal aspect is the model's immunity to price manipulation, establishing a no-arbitrage condition that confirms its robustness against inconsistencies. Empirical fitting of the model with a substantial dataset supports a fitted concavity around 0.48 and an optimal decay horizon near 0.2 days, challenging traditional models like the square root law, especially outside typical trading volumes.
While I prefer the Almgren model for its simplicity and empirical clarity in portfolio optimization, the insights and methodology emerging from this current research in stochastic control are promising and could drive future advancements in algorithmic trading strategies.
@quant_feed
0xfdf @ twitter
orig
I recently reviewed two companion papers advancing our understanding of market impact: "The Cost of Misspecifying Market Impact" and "Trading with Concave Price Impact and Impact Decay." The key contributions are explicit optimal trading rules that incorporate nonlinear impact and decay, along with quantifying the "costs" of misestimating market impact.
There's an intrinsic conflict between expected returns (alpha signals) and implementation costs arising from market impact. The literature usually focuses on portfolio degradation from alpha estimation errors but overlooks the consequences of misspecifying market impact. Market impact is modeled using two critical parameters: concavity and decay, where concavity indicates that larger orders are proportionally cheaper, and decay captures the time taken for price reversion.
The classical square root model supports linear impact but lacks decay. The new model integrates the impact dynamics with a martingale approach, allowing for closed-form solutions, even with time-varying parameters. Optimal trading strategies derived from this model indicate that underestimating impact risks aggressive trading, which can erode profits, while overestimating leads to overly timid trades without major detriment.
A pivotal aspect is the model's immunity to price manipulation, establishing a no-arbitrage condition that confirms its robustness against inconsistencies. Empirical fitting of the model with a substantial dataset supports a fitted concavity around 0.48 and an optimal decay horizon near 0.2 days, challenging traditional models like the square root law, especially outside typical trading volumes.
While I prefer the Almgren model for its simplicity and empirical clarity in portfolio optimization, the insights and methodology emerging from this current research in stochastic control are promising and could drive future advancements in algorithmic trading strategies.
@quant_feed
Understanding the Recent Surge in Japanese Yields and Yen Strength
MacroAlf @ twitter
orig
The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates again, establishing a short-term policy range around 0.25%, while also significantly reducing its government bond purchases over the next two years. Governor Ueda is optimistic about achieving a stable 2% inflation target, bolstered by significant wage increases secured by major labor unions. Although real rates remain negative, the BoJ's hawkish stance indicates further hikes could follow if core inflation approaches the target.
The market response has been sharp, with rising Japanese yields and a strengthening yen. Japanese investors, pivotal as global capital exporters, control over $1 trillion in US Treasuries and $0.5 trillion in EUR bonds. However, the current expense of FX hedging and the inverted US yield curve are making US Treasuries less attractive relative to Japanese government bonds, leading to potential capital allocation shifts.
As these changes manifest, the implications for global markets are significant, particularly in bond and stock allocations influenced by Japanese capital flows. Japan's monetary policy adjustments are not just local phenomena; they resonate throughout the global financial landscape.
@quant_feed
MacroAlf @ twitter
orig
The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates again, establishing a short-term policy range around 0.25%, while also significantly reducing its government bond purchases over the next two years. Governor Ueda is optimistic about achieving a stable 2% inflation target, bolstered by significant wage increases secured by major labor unions. Although real rates remain negative, the BoJ's hawkish stance indicates further hikes could follow if core inflation approaches the target.
The market response has been sharp, with rising Japanese yields and a strengthening yen. Japanese investors, pivotal as global capital exporters, control over $1 trillion in US Treasuries and $0.5 trillion in EUR bonds. However, the current expense of FX hedging and the inverted US yield curve are making US Treasuries less attractive relative to Japanese government bonds, leading to potential capital allocation shifts.
As these changes manifest, the implications for global markets are significant, particularly in bond and stock allocations influenced by Japanese capital flows. Japan's monetary policy adjustments are not just local phenomena; they resonate throughout the global financial landscape.
@quant_feed
Understanding Correlation in Quant Trading: Defining a "Good" Signal-Return Relationship
macrocephalopod @ twitter
orig
Correlation between your signal and future returns is crucial in quant trading. A key metric to consider is establishing what constitutes a "good" correlation. Using a simple model where future returns are normally distributed, we can derive beta based on correlation, volatility, and forecast horizon. This understanding implies that if trading costs are considered, identifying unprofitable signals becomes much simpler.
For instance, considering a stock with 3% daily volatility and 5 bps trading costs, we can expect to easily find signals with a correlation of 0.5%. If we engage factor hedging, we could halve the volatility but double our costs, aiming for a minimum correlation of 2% with idiosyncratic returns. In a different scenario, like predicting a 1-minute FX return with 0.2 bps trading costs and 0.3% daily volatility, we anticipate alphas with a much higher correlation of 8.5%.
These values represent baseline correlations; profitable trading requires exceeding these thresholds. A rule of thumb suggests that a correlation of 1.5 times the minimum allows for trades in about 5% of periods, while 2 times the minimum is considered very good. This framework is a practical way to extend the law of active management, emphasizing that realistic parameters will generally yield correlations less than 1.
@quant_feed
macrocephalopod @ twitter
orig
Correlation between your signal and future returns is crucial in quant trading. A key metric to consider is establishing what constitutes a "good" correlation. Using a simple model where future returns are normally distributed, we can derive beta based on correlation, volatility, and forecast horizon. This understanding implies that if trading costs are considered, identifying unprofitable signals becomes much simpler.
For instance, considering a stock with 3% daily volatility and 5 bps trading costs, we can expect to easily find signals with a correlation of 0.5%. If we engage factor hedging, we could halve the volatility but double our costs, aiming for a minimum correlation of 2% with idiosyncratic returns. In a different scenario, like predicting a 1-minute FX return with 0.2 bps trading costs and 0.3% daily volatility, we anticipate alphas with a much higher correlation of 8.5%.
These values represent baseline correlations; profitable trading requires exceeding these thresholds. A rule of thumb suggests that a correlation of 1.5 times the minimum allows for trades in about 5% of periods, while 2 times the minimum is considered very good. This framework is a practical way to extend the law of active management, emphasizing that realistic parameters will generally yield correlations less than 1.
@quant_feed
Announcing a New Book on Quantitative Investing: "The Element of Quantitative Investing" Set for April 2025 Release
__paleologo @ twitter
orig
I'm wrapping up my latest book draft, titled "The Element of Quantitative Investing," set for Wiley in April 2025. This book is the culmination of my thoughts on quantitative investing that I’ve wanted to express for a while. It covers essential topics like modeling returns and risk, backtesting alpha, portfolio construction, intertemporal and Kelly criteria, strategy execution, and performance analysis.
I’ve streamlined the content, cutting out unnecessary material to keep it under 500 pages, which makes it a focused read rather than a reference or thesis. The draft is close to completion but still contains typographical errors and needs refinement. The goal is for readers to grasp the core concepts to a level suitable for reimplementation, so the text will contain practical explanations and examples. I deliberately avoid any math newer than 50 years, focusing on timeless concepts relevant for the future.
Feedback is welcomed—email me corrections or comments with "EQI" in the subject line. The draft and related materials are accessible through the provided links, with all chapters currently in a readable state. Notably, I'm keeping the chapters on execution and signal fusion under wraps for now.
@quant_feed
__paleologo @ twitter
orig
I'm wrapping up my latest book draft, titled "The Element of Quantitative Investing," set for Wiley in April 2025. This book is the culmination of my thoughts on quantitative investing that I’ve wanted to express for a while. It covers essential topics like modeling returns and risk, backtesting alpha, portfolio construction, intertemporal and Kelly criteria, strategy execution, and performance analysis.
I’ve streamlined the content, cutting out unnecessary material to keep it under 500 pages, which makes it a focused read rather than a reference or thesis. The draft is close to completion but still contains typographical errors and needs refinement. The goal is for readers to grasp the core concepts to a level suitable for reimplementation, so the text will contain practical explanations and examples. I deliberately avoid any math newer than 50 years, focusing on timeless concepts relevant for the future.
Feedback is welcomed—email me corrections or comments with "EQI" in the subject line. The draft and related materials are accessible through the provided links, with all chapters currently in a readable state. Notably, I'm keeping the chapters on execution and signal fusion under wraps for now.
@quant_feed
Essential Questions for Assessing Linear Algebra and Regression Insights in Quant Interviews
macrocephalopod @ twitter
orig
In discussions about quant interviews, there's a significant focus on assessing fundamental concepts rather than practical applications like alpha research or portfolio construction. Specifically, probing candidates' grasp of linear algebra, regression, covariance matrix estimation, and dimension reduction can yield insights into their foundational knowledge. Engaging with others on Twitter reveals a diverse range of preferred questions that target these essentials. Some responses suggest skepticism about the relevance of certain questions, while others emphasize the importance of evaluating a candidate’s core understanding. It's clear that interviewing strategies should emphasize conceptual clarity over rote knowledge.
@quant_feed
macrocephalopod @ twitter
orig
In discussions about quant interviews, there's a significant focus on assessing fundamental concepts rather than practical applications like alpha research or portfolio construction. Specifically, probing candidates' grasp of linear algebra, regression, covariance matrix estimation, and dimension reduction can yield insights into their foundational knowledge. Engaging with others on Twitter reveals a diverse range of preferred questions that target these essentials. Some responses suggest skepticism about the relevance of certain questions, while others emphasize the importance of evaluating a candidate’s core understanding. It's clear that interviewing strategies should emphasize conceptual clarity over rote knowledge.
@quant_feed
Navigating PostgreSQL Connectivity in Python: A Guide to psycopg3 and psycopg2
ryxcommar @ twitter
orig
Connecting to Postgres in Python is straightforward with psycopg3, the latest driver. Despite its advancements, psycopg2 remains widely used, especially on Mac where you need to install psycopg2-binary. However, for a cleaner setup, your requirements.txt should reference the non-binary version. The consensus in the community seems to lean towards momentum for upgrades, but there’s still hesitance around updating database drivers, suggesting a general reluctance to change in established practices.
@quant_feed
ryxcommar @ twitter
orig
Connecting to Postgres in Python is straightforward with psycopg3, the latest driver. Despite its advancements, psycopg2 remains widely used, especially on Mac where you need to install psycopg2-binary. However, for a cleaner setup, your requirements.txt should reference the non-binary version. The consensus in the community seems to lean towards momentum for upgrades, but there’s still hesitance around updating database drivers, suggesting a general reluctance to change in established practices.
@quant_feed
Exploring the Evidence: Were US Stocks Truly "Lost" During Decades of Underperformance?
benjaminwfelix @ twitter
orig
Lost decades in US stocks are painful, especially when stocks trail one-month bills. Analyzing rolling 10-year periods from 1927 to 2023 reveals 145 instances classified as "lost decades," accounting for 14% of all periods. However, 74% of those instances saw the Dimensional US Small Cap Value Index outperforming US bills, with an average market return of +1.89%, resulting in a -2.33% premium over bills.
In contrast, US small cap value saw an average return of +6.45%, enhancing performance by 4.56% annualized above the market. This factor significantly mitigates the effects of fees and costs, which average around 2%.
Looking at Japan from 1987 to 2022, while the Fama/French Japan Market Index yielded only +2.81% annually, the Dimensional Japan Small Cap Value Index return surged to +8.11%. This indicates a consistent pattern where small cap value stocks have demonstrated resilience, despite their inherent risks and occasional underperformance.
Additionally, US large growth stocks have experienced more lost decades than the overall market, with 176 instances. During those periods, large growth underperformed the market by 0.66% annualized. The evidence suggests that small cap value can be a critical component in diversifying risks and enhancing returns, even during challenging market periods.
@quant_feed
benjaminwfelix @ twitter
orig
Lost decades in US stocks are painful, especially when stocks trail one-month bills. Analyzing rolling 10-year periods from 1927 to 2023 reveals 145 instances classified as "lost decades," accounting for 14% of all periods. However, 74% of those instances saw the Dimensional US Small Cap Value Index outperforming US bills, with an average market return of +1.89%, resulting in a -2.33% premium over bills.
In contrast, US small cap value saw an average return of +6.45%, enhancing performance by 4.56% annualized above the market. This factor significantly mitigates the effects of fees and costs, which average around 2%.
Looking at Japan from 1987 to 2022, while the Fama/French Japan Market Index yielded only +2.81% annually, the Dimensional Japan Small Cap Value Index return surged to +8.11%. This indicates a consistent pattern where small cap value stocks have demonstrated resilience, despite their inherent risks and occasional underperformance.
Additionally, US large growth stocks have experienced more lost decades than the overall market, with 176 instances. During those periods, large growth underperformed the market by 0.66% annualized. The evidence suggests that small cap value can be a critical component in diversifying risks and enhancing returns, even during challenging market periods.
@quant_feed
Exploring the Significance of Average Cross-Sectional R² in Factor Model Performance Metrics
__paleologo @ twitter
orig
The average cross-sectional R^2 is commonly cited as a primary performance metric for factor models, as noted by Barra and Axioma, but it falls short in several critical areas. First, R^2 does not effectively measure risk model performance, especially in the contexts of hedging or volatility prediction, nor does it correlate with alpha generation.
Furthermore, R^2 can be misleading due to its reliance on model complexity—it's inherently biased as it increases with the number of predictors. This can explain the proliferation of factors in commercial models. Additionally, data mining is a significant risk when assessing R^2, particularly given the limited historical data available for testing.
Despite these drawbacks, R^2 still provides an intuitive grasp of a factor's explanatory power. The challenge lies in rigorously linking population R^2 to genuine factor model performance across risk management and alpha generation, transcending the hurdles posed by finite sample considerations and multiple testing anomalies.
@quant_feed
__paleologo @ twitter
orig
The average cross-sectional R^2 is commonly cited as a primary performance metric for factor models, as noted by Barra and Axioma, but it falls short in several critical areas. First, R^2 does not effectively measure risk model performance, especially in the contexts of hedging or volatility prediction, nor does it correlate with alpha generation.
Furthermore, R^2 can be misleading due to its reliance on model complexity—it's inherently biased as it increases with the number of predictors. This can explain the proliferation of factors in commercial models. Additionally, data mining is a significant risk when assessing R^2, particularly given the limited historical data available for testing.
Despite these drawbacks, R^2 still provides an intuitive grasp of a factor's explanatory power. The challenge lies in rigorously linking population R^2 to genuine factor model performance across risk management and alpha generation, transcending the hurdles posed by finite sample considerations and multiple testing anomalies.
@quant_feed
👍2
Exploring the Balance Between Active and Passive Investment Strategies in Modern Markets
choffstein @ twitter
orig
There’s a growing recognition that both active and passive investing strategies influence market dynamics beyond their intended effects. We see how active strategies can set prices, while passive investments adjust based on market cap, yet liquidity issues mean these influences aren’t always in sync. This highlights the importance of recognizing how different investment vehicles interact.
Target date funds are surfacing as key players, altering stock correlations, including stock/bond relationships. It's notable that financialization in the 2000s skewed commodity correlations, raising questions about our assumptions regarding market behavior.
Transacting in financial markets inevitably creates some impact—Koijen’s research underscores this point. Additionally, non-informational flows may influence prices more significantly than previously thought. Amid this complexity, discussions around the nuances often get lost, leading to polarized views that oversimplify the intricacies of market interactions.
@quant_feed
choffstein @ twitter
orig
There’s a growing recognition that both active and passive investing strategies influence market dynamics beyond their intended effects. We see how active strategies can set prices, while passive investments adjust based on market cap, yet liquidity issues mean these influences aren’t always in sync. This highlights the importance of recognizing how different investment vehicles interact.
Target date funds are surfacing as key players, altering stock correlations, including stock/bond relationships. It's notable that financialization in the 2000s skewed commodity correlations, raising questions about our assumptions regarding market behavior.
Transacting in financial markets inevitably creates some impact—Koijen’s research underscores this point. Additionally, non-informational flows may influence prices more significantly than previously thought. Amid this complexity, discussions around the nuances often get lost, leading to polarized views that oversimplify the intricacies of market interactions.
@quant_feed
The Underestimated Challenge of Long/Short Equity Success in China: A Closer Look at Foreign PMs
systematicls @ twitter
orig
The challenge of achieving success in China’s long/short equities market is significantly underestimated. I've noticed that very few non-Chinese PMs manage to sustain long-term profitability in this space. This raises a question about potential hidden advantages held by domestic PMs, suggesting they might have exclusive access to critical data or networks, particularly regarding trading suspensions.
I’m curious if there are any academic papers I’ve overlooked beyond the standard studies, particularly focusing on the impacts of trading suspensions in China. Also interested in any relevant anecdotes from others in the field.
It's clear to me that the transparency of data sources is uneven; I suspect domestic investors tap into more nuanced information that goes beyond standard terminals like Wind. This could be a key factor in their success in L/S strategies.
@quant_feed
systematicls @ twitter
orig
The challenge of achieving success in China’s long/short equities market is significantly underestimated. I've noticed that very few non-Chinese PMs manage to sustain long-term profitability in this space. This raises a question about potential hidden advantages held by domestic PMs, suggesting they might have exclusive access to critical data or networks, particularly regarding trading suspensions.
I’m curious if there are any academic papers I’ve overlooked beyond the standard studies, particularly focusing on the impacts of trading suspensions in China. Also interested in any relevant anecdotes from others in the field.
It's clear to me that the transparency of data sources is uneven; I suspect domestic investors tap into more nuanced information that goes beyond standard terminals like Wind. This could be a key factor in their success in L/S strategies.
@quant_feed
Estimating Compound Annual Return: A Simple Calculation Method
KrisAbdelmessih @ twitter
orig
To quickly estimate compound annual return, you can use a simple formula: 70% multiplied by the number of doublings to reach your target amount, divided by the number of years. For instance, if you invest $1 and grow it to $250 over 50 years, that's about 8 doublings. So, the calculation would be 70% multiplied by (8/50), yielding an approximate annual return of 11.2%.
In another example, targeting a 4x increase in 10 years involves 2 doublings, leading to a projected return of 14% using the same formula. This mental math trick keeps me engaged and helps clarify return goals from discussions I encounter, minimizing the risk of zoning out on tangential points. Overall, it’s a useful heuristic for understanding investment returns without getting bogged down in excessive details.
@quant_feed
KrisAbdelmessih @ twitter
orig
To quickly estimate compound annual return, you can use a simple formula: 70% multiplied by the number of doublings to reach your target amount, divided by the number of years. For instance, if you invest $1 and grow it to $250 over 50 years, that's about 8 doublings. So, the calculation would be 70% multiplied by (8/50), yielding an approximate annual return of 11.2%.
In another example, targeting a 4x increase in 10 years involves 2 doublings, leading to a projected return of 14% using the same formula. This mental math trick keeps me engaged and helps clarify return goals from discussions I encounter, minimizing the risk of zoning out on tangential points. Overall, it’s a useful heuristic for understanding investment returns without getting bogged down in excessive details.
@quant_feed
Debunking Common Misconceptions in Algorithmic Trading
pyquantnews @ twitter
orig
Myths of algorithmic trading include the belief that one needs hundreds of strategies, 12 months of research, and high-frequency trading. In reality, focusing on 1 or 2 solid core strategies is sufficient. It's essential to leverage a supportive community and recognize that basic internet access is adequate for success. Don't fall for the misconceptions; variations on those core strategies are more crucial than sheer volume.
@quant_feed
pyquantnews @ twitter
orig
Myths of algorithmic trading include the belief that one needs hundreds of strategies, 12 months of research, and high-frequency trading. In reality, focusing on 1 or 2 solid core strategies is sufficient. It's essential to leverage a supportive community and recognize that basic internet access is adequate for success. Don't fall for the misconceptions; variations on those core strategies are more crucial than sheer volume.
@quant_feed
👍2❤1
Navigating Event Risk in HFT: The Case for Orderbook Withdrawal and Volatility Management
ltrd_ @ twitter
orig
The recent event highlighted the necessity for HFTs to strategically withdraw from the order book. Although we chose to remain, it’s clear that this would have minimized our exposure to volatility. Understanding that volatility acts as a double-edged sword is crucial; while it can present opportunities, it also requires careful management to avoid unnecessary risks. This analysis emphasizes the importance of adapting to market conditions and adopting agiler strategies. I’m eager to hear your thoughts on navigating such volatility and any insights you might have on effective order book management.
@quant_feed
ltrd_ @ twitter
orig
The recent event highlighted the necessity for HFTs to strategically withdraw from the order book. Although we chose to remain, it’s clear that this would have minimized our exposure to volatility. Understanding that volatility acts as a double-edged sword is crucial; while it can present opportunities, it also requires careful management to avoid unnecessary risks. This analysis emphasizes the importance of adapting to market conditions and adopting agiler strategies. I’m eager to hear your thoughts on navigating such volatility and any insights you might have on effective order book management.
@quant_feed
Exploring the Value of Negatively Correlated Alphas in Portfolio Strategies
macrocephalopod @ twitter
orig
Finding a new alpha that is negatively correlated to existing alphas offers a fresh avenue for diversification, especially when the common approach revolves around identifying existing alphas. The nature of each alpha matters significantly. If the alpha is derived from a unique, unexploited dataset, integrating it can enhance overall strategy effectiveness. Conversely, if it merely combines existing datasets without adding predictive value, it's likely best to discard it to avoid redundancy. This nuanced understanding of alpha sourcing can lead to more robust portfolio construction.
@quant_feed
macrocephalopod @ twitter
orig
Finding a new alpha that is negatively correlated to existing alphas offers a fresh avenue for diversification, especially when the common approach revolves around identifying existing alphas. The nature of each alpha matters significantly. If the alpha is derived from a unique, unexploited dataset, integrating it can enhance overall strategy effectiveness. Conversely, if it merely combines existing datasets without adding predictive value, it's likely best to discard it to avoid redundancy. This nuanced understanding of alpha sourcing can lead to more robust portfolio construction.
@quant_feed
Optimizing Ridge Regression: Enhancing Forecasts with Beta Rescaling
macrocephalopod @ twitter
orig
When applying ridge regression, it's effective to rescale forecasts to achieve a beta of 1 relative to the dependent variable. This process allows us to harness the advantages of ridge regression while avoiding overly diminished predictions. The key is to regress the observed values against the predicted values to obtain a scaling factor, which we then use to adjust both the coefficients and forecasts accordingly. It’s a smart way to maintain prediction integrity while managing multicollinearity.
@quant_feed
macrocephalopod @ twitter
orig
When applying ridge regression, it's effective to rescale forecasts to achieve a beta of 1 relative to the dependent variable. This process allows us to harness the advantages of ridge regression while avoiding overly diminished predictions. The key is to regress the observed values against the predicted values to obtain a scaling factor, which we then use to adjust both the coefficients and forecasts accordingly. It’s a smart way to maintain prediction integrity while managing multicollinearity.
@quant_feed
Exploring the Role of Rust in High-Frequency Trading Discussions
Dub0x3A @ twitter
orig
Rust's role in high-frequency trading (HFT) is a hot topic, and I resonate with @0xAlcibiades on the challenges it presents. Despite barriers, the coding experience in Rust is quite fulfilling, which is a silver lining. There’s a keen observation about firms like Citadel stalling on Rust adoption, likely to avoid the investment in necessary tooling and training for their developers. Ultimately, the shift to Rust seems inevitable as the industry evolves.
@quant_feed
Dub0x3A @ twitter
orig
Rust's role in high-frequency trading (HFT) is a hot topic, and I resonate with @0xAlcibiades on the challenges it presents. Despite barriers, the coding experience in Rust is quite fulfilling, which is a silver lining. There’s a keen observation about firms like Citadel stalling on Rust adoption, likely to avoid the investment in necessary tooling and training for their developers. Ultimately, the shift to Rust seems inevitable as the industry evolves.
@quant_feed
Optimizing High-Frequency Trading Systems for Peak Performance and Cost Efficiency
TimMeggs @ twitter
orig
Much of HFT engineering focuses on optimizing message handling during peak loads, which are infrequent. This leads to systems that are often overprovisioned yet underutilized. One potential solution is to pre-compute calculations that are typically performed in real-time during high-load scenarios. By storing these computations in a map, you can effectively reduce the latency of complex calculations to the quicker lookup latency, enhancing overall system efficiency.
@quant_feed
TimMeggs @ twitter
orig
Much of HFT engineering focuses on optimizing message handling during peak loads, which are infrequent. This leads to systems that are often overprovisioned yet underutilized. One potential solution is to pre-compute calculations that are typically performed in real-time during high-load scenarios. By storing these computations in a map, you can effectively reduce the latency of complex calculations to the quicker lookup latency, enhancing overall system efficiency.
@quant_feed
Exploring Automated Systems for Alpha Discovery in Long-Short Strategies
oxbquant @ twitter
orig
I was diving into @quant_arb's insights on ranked long-short strategies and the idea that successful "alphas" are essentially just formulas derived from quantile partitioning for alpha scoring. It got me thinking; surely there's potential for an automated discovery system to enhance these strategies. This could lead to an interesting summer project, where I envision a process that starts with a model generating alpha formulas, then filters out the underperformers based on metrics from backtesting. The next step would involve leveraging LLMs to evaluate the formulas and identify those with the strongest fundamental rationale.
Interestingly, I was also considering genetic algorithms for this approach but realized there's a need for better explainability in how these alphas work. Using LLMs could provide that clarity and understanding, wrapping up a potentially sophisticated project. Engaging with thoughts from @systematicls and @0xfdf could also refine these ideas further.
@quant_feed
oxbquant @ twitter
orig
I was diving into @quant_arb's insights on ranked long-short strategies and the idea that successful "alphas" are essentially just formulas derived from quantile partitioning for alpha scoring. It got me thinking; surely there's potential for an automated discovery system to enhance these strategies. This could lead to an interesting summer project, where I envision a process that starts with a model generating alpha formulas, then filters out the underperformers based on metrics from backtesting. The next step would involve leveraging LLMs to evaluate the formulas and identify those with the strongest fundamental rationale.
Interestingly, I was also considering genetic algorithms for this approach but realized there's a need for better explainability in how these alphas work. Using LLMs could provide that clarity and understanding, wrapping up a potentially sophisticated project. Engaging with thoughts from @systematicls and @0xfdf could also refine these ideas further.
@quant_feed
Exploring Optimal Stopping in Dice Rolls: Valuing a Two-Roll Game
BlackSwan_ptf @ twitter
orig
The optimal stopping problem with dice rolls is a classic scenario relevant to American options pricing, drawing parallels to decision-making strategies in stochastic processes. The core question is the expected payoff from rolling a die twice with the option to stop after each roll for a payout equal to the die's face value. This type of problem frequently appears in interviews, emphasizing its significance in quantitative finance. The insights shared by Satyaki in his lecture provide a comprehensive understanding, while Ito Windsor's thread offers a richer exploration of the underlying concepts. Engaging with these resources deepens appreciation for the intricacies of probability in financial contexts.
@quant_feed
BlackSwan_ptf @ twitter
orig
The optimal stopping problem with dice rolls is a classic scenario relevant to American options pricing, drawing parallels to decision-making strategies in stochastic processes. The core question is the expected payoff from rolling a die twice with the option to stop after each roll for a payout equal to the die's face value. This type of problem frequently appears in interviews, emphasizing its significance in quantitative finance. The insights shared by Satyaki in his lecture provide a comprehensive understanding, while Ito Windsor's thread offers a richer exploration of the underlying concepts. Engaging with these resources deepens appreciation for the intricacies of probability in financial contexts.
@quant_feed
Decoding the Ineffective Urgency in Market Commentary: A Case Study from Moontower
KrisAbdelmessih @ twitter
orig
This week's discourse around Moontower revealed a lot about the common sentiment in investing tweets. Many discussions lack actionable insights, often relying on urgency without substance. My approach is to prioritize risk over expected returns—what I term “Know Nothing Sizing.” Systematic risk is irreducible, and while there’s an equity risk premium, we need to remain skeptical of both bullish and doomsday narratives.
Investing isn't just about being right—it's about being pragmatic. I advocate for a portfolio constructed with an emphasis on volatility stability over return expectations. The reality is, you will encounter drawdowns, but understanding your risk exposure and risk management is crucial, regardless of market timing pretensions. The essential chaos of the market is a given; our focus should be on diversification and acceptance of systemic risk.
In every investment journey, it’s critical to remain vigilant and harbor a healthy paranoia without falling into lazy doomerism. The market does not always behave predictably, and if you're not prepared for volatility, your approach is fundamentally flawed. In the end, if you choose to hide from the market, you're only delaying the inevitable.
@quant_feed
KrisAbdelmessih @ twitter
orig
This week's discourse around Moontower revealed a lot about the common sentiment in investing tweets. Many discussions lack actionable insights, often relying on urgency without substance. My approach is to prioritize risk over expected returns—what I term “Know Nothing Sizing.” Systematic risk is irreducible, and while there’s an equity risk premium, we need to remain skeptical of both bullish and doomsday narratives.
Investing isn't just about being right—it's about being pragmatic. I advocate for a portfolio constructed with an emphasis on volatility stability over return expectations. The reality is, you will encounter drawdowns, but understanding your risk exposure and risk management is crucial, regardless of market timing pretensions. The essential chaos of the market is a given; our focus should be on diversification and acceptance of systemic risk.
In every investment journey, it’s critical to remain vigilant and harbor a healthy paranoia without falling into lazy doomerism. The market does not always behave predictably, and if you're not prepared for volatility, your approach is fundamentally flawed. In the end, if you choose to hide from the market, you're only delaying the inevitable.
@quant_feed