Lumentum also released their target financial model, which surpasses even my own model estimates (I think also other buyside bogeys)

- this target does not include the additional $5b revenue potential from their new fab
- target model did not extend into CY28, which is ironically when scale-up CPO really ramps. so what could CY29/30 look like with a scale-up ramp, if CY27/28 looks like this without a scale-up ramp? the photonics wave could be just starting

$LITE

Bought $GLD @ $408 and $SLV @ $63. On the other side of a forced seller is a happy buyer.

Have also had good luck trading with Silver in the past, so if it would be so kind as to let me buy the bottom for the third time…

Optics names have been bid hard these 2 weeks

Small (embarrassing) story: a month ago, I was very confident on the optics narrative going into GTC and OFC. So I bought lots of LITE, TSEM, AAOI, AXTI and some Jap optics names. Blinded by greed, I became overly concentrated / levered.

You can see where this story is going. Then came the U.S. strike on Iran, and the SaaS short squeeze… etc etc. Around the same time, my broker also increased the initial margin due to the heightened volatility of the largest winning stocks of the year, many of which are my largest positions like SNDK LITE. As a result, my buying power decreased and not only could I not buy more of the optics names when they corrected, but I was also forced to delever many names near the bottom.

If you asked me what I learnt from that episode, I would say nothing; because I already knew not to be so concentrated/levered, and also believed a SaaS short squeeze was coming. But this is a classic example of having the right idea, but the wrong execution. If I was not a forced seller 3 weeks back, I would be far above my YTD ATH today with the optics bid.

I’m not too hard on myself, mistakes happen and I am learning from it. Thankful also that I did manage to build back my positions in optics before OFC, though not to the amounts that I had had — a conscious decision to not be overly concentrated again (and thus by extension, to underperform).

It’s a dilemma right, like there’s alpha in concentration (when you’re right), but if you’re heavily concentrated and right, then you inevitably become heavily levered to momo, especially if you’re not playing some niche turnaround events with long duration. Many view momentum as inherently risky/bad/volatile, but I think it’s not so clear cut.

So is the right approach to trim as the market realises your thesis and price rises? Or should you double down PRECISELY because your thesis is being proven right? What’s the right balance? Still figuring this out but I believe there is no right answer - only one that fits to your own personality, duration and risk mgmt.

Anyway, no moral of the story, but just thought to share that sometimes you can be very right and yet very wrong at the same time; the market (which is an extension of the collective personalities and moods of the participants) is a funny thing

Put on large shorts on $COIN @ $200 and $CRCL @ $125

For the same reasons as before, think the bounce up the past month gives us a beautiful short setup and also a good hedge for Trump’s midterms.

If this is crypto under the most pro-crypto (read: grifting) admin, can’t imagine it under the Democrats. Also fundamentally, I think these 2 biz are terrible, and I really don’t think there’s moats here.

For Circle, aside from the CLARITY Act, Tether may be IPOing and has finally engaged a big four auditor for their reserves for the very first time in history. I see stablecoins endgame as either 1) USDT wins most share eventually, or 2) BB banks issue their own stables.

$MARA also announced sale of BTC yesterday and stock went up +DD% on news. I don’t think this will go unnoticed amongst the treasury companies and miners..

So why are these 2 extremely cyclical & low moat businesses valued at > 45x / 85x fwd p/e and people still think these are cheap? Agentic commerce?? Retail distribution?? SoV?? Lol

There’s news that Borat Margaret Sagdiyev from Kazakhstan is thinking of joining too… 🤔

https://x.com/moneyfetishist/status/2039587329535304168?s=46

It’s gna be ok

Well so the first model trained at scale on Blackwell is finally out.. Mythos showing a massive step function gain against previous gens, just months apart. Now how will models trained on Vera Rubin, Feynman look like..?

Maybe the default expectation is that everyone will be eventually made redundant. Feels like there’s maybe only 2 years left to hoard as much hard assets as possible. Time to strap in, get down and dirty using AI, max out your rate limits, and don’t forget to treat your LLMs better

News of Mythos benchmarks also came at an excellent time, right as the market was coming off peak fear.

Macro uncertainty resolving into certainty, combined with Mythos raising the blue sky with the AI narrative, provides momentum for the pendulum swings right into the hottest sectors of the past 2 years. A man can dream

Maybe it’s finally time to dance

Inb4 Lip Bu nukes the bag on earnings

$INTC

Excluding market commentary, I think power is in a sweet spot. Interesting shifts within the sector while not being overly crowded yet. Also seems to be the next lowest hanging fruit in terms of reducing TCO/performance per watt.

Of the entire power value chain, high-voltage semis and PoL conversion stand out to me as the highest torque.

Am long:
$CORZ @ $19 (a potential M&A play)
$VICR @ $200
$NVTS @ $14.5