Closed $NET long @ $185-$193 for slight loss, think too much risk in the valuation given this environment

This “AI is recessionary” narrative is starting to grow on me. CPI was expected to be a hot print but came out ice cold. Though is a cold CPI really positive?

If AI is a structural deflationary force like we’ve never seen before, isn’t the US30Yr Treasuries at 4.73% a steal now? Assuming Bessent is able to grow their way out of debt or at least convince the market that they can (big if!)

Longed short and long-end treasuries $SHY @ $83 & $TLT @ $89.2. Disclosure: I’m kinda bad at macro

“Where’s the compute demand and ROI going to come from?”

https://x.com/pingtoven/status/2023186798927892811?s=46

Btw no idiosyncratic reasons for cutting $NET, just prefer not to hold stocks w high multiples now.

High multiples = majority of valuation lies in terminal value. And there’s no way one can be certain of terminal value in today’s ai-accelerative environment

IMO there’s better ways to play the long side on the agentic ai theme, such as volume plays like $DOCN / $RPI (?). Reasonable valuation, pure plays, relatively beaten down pre-AI, new tailwinds that contribute directly to rev, decent operating leverage

https://x.com/jaredkubin/status/2023586485744681214?s=46

Shifted 70% of my $SNDK position @ $600 into $MU @ $397. Valuation for both is approximately the same. I preferred $SNDK because it’s a NAND pure-play and the lower market cap = higher beta, but it’s nearing $100b mcap now so it’s not exactly that much easier to move anymore vs Micron in the context of institutional money - all while $MU has more enterprise ssd and dram exposure. Using $285A.JT (Kioxia) as my pure-play NAND vehicle.

LITE is actually ahead of its peers in terms of innovation more than the market realizes. First, $LITE and $COHR already maintain a duopoly on InP lasers.

Beyond that, $LITE is likely years ahead of $COHR in producing leading-edge continuous-wave lasers that are ultra-high-power and narrow-line-width with low (RIN). These lasers are an irreplaceable component in NVIDIA’s pursuit of the next networking frontier: scale-up CPO.

This is holy grail technology. It extends the reach of an interface designed for <2 mm of channel length (die-to-die electrical signals) to potentially 100+ meters. This means the unified memory limit for GPUs could jump from 72 GPUs to 576+, and total pooled HBM from 13.5 TB to 165 TB, unlocking a 10x increase in compute capability.

And only ONE company is capable of producing these lasers, the most critical component of this tech. To further contextualise this, normal lasers used in optical transceivers are already hard to produce (fragile, low InP yields). But continuous wave lasers are even harder (ultra high power, always on, must not have flickers in intensity or frequency). And now, we’re trying to put that fragile, UHP, always-on laser right next to a GPU that can go from 40 Celsius to 85 Celsius in seconds... 1) the laser might actually melt, and 2) for every 1 celsius change in temperature, the laser’s colour shifts by 0.1nm. If it shifts too much, the data/signal is voided entirely. That’s how hard this physics-defying challenge is, and also why it has been delayed for so long despite the obvious benefits.

However, NVIDIA’s ISSCC presentation of their optical NVLink solution this week may have been the catalyst that helps the market realize the importance of this tech. Much like what NVIDIA’s CES speech did for SNDK and the role of NAND in AI infras and context management.

https://x.com/claudeai/status/2024986293248127452?s=46

As a comment succinctly summed up, winners of the hackathon are…:

- a personal injury attorney
- an interventional cardiologist
- an electronic musician
- an infrastructure/roads systems worker
- a software engineer

If held just a year ago, winners would have likely been all software engineers.

From our thesis above: “the best applications can now come from the most creative individuals, rather than the most well-funded engineering teams. It can come from ANYONE with an idea that doesn’t even need to be original!”

Gone is the day of general-ish SaaS, and in is the age of highly customisable & specialised niche software - built just for yourself, by yourself.

https://x.com/qwqiao/status/2019199428578459996?s=46

Adding on to this commentary, it’s time to treat coding/agentic coding/agentic AI seriously and compulsory. You need to at least develop a 6/10 expertise in it to function in the world in future, just like English I think.

Then, build a 10/10 expertise in your chosen domain outside of coding (investing, engineering whatever) that no one else can replicate, go really deep and get really good at it.

Choose your domain wisely though as some might cease to exist in future. My rule of thumb: domains resembling poker games (imperfect information, probabilistic thinking, human psychology, optionality, payoff and risk centric thinking) are safer than domains resembling chess games (perfect information, deterministic outcomes, rigid rules, solvable, do x get y).

Use your 6/10 coding skills to complement and take your domain skills to the next level. That’s my framework for future proofing as hyper-specialisation accelerates.

I think being 10/10 domain and 6/10 coding > 8/10 domain and 8/10 coding, because specialised domain knowledge will be worth a lot more in future and agentic coding is going to get so good. So you don’t need to be top decile at coding skills to extract top decile value from coding

Lastly the most value adding thing you could possibly do this weekend, professionally speaking, is to take 2 hours to set up Claude code/openclaw. Lots of guides online. Then try creating a simple calendar app with a 3 sentences prompt. Then expand from there. That’s literally it, it’s so much easier than people think.

And that will flip a switch in you, I assure you. You will finally understand the AI optimism/excitement with true conviction. You can’t grasp it by reading about it in headlines. Trust me, this will be more value-adding than the hours that you will spend being buried in an excel model.

This best be HBF-related and not mis-messaging about the company’s 1yr spinoff anniversary from $WDC… 😤

$SNDK

Yesterday’s sell off (and really the entire past 2 months) has reflected this: there is no certainty in terminal value anymore, especially when that’s effectively just a numerical tweak in a dcf

How can stocks be trading at 100+ NTM p/e and be expected to grow into that valuation — in an environment where a new 0.1 bump in model capabilities or a new product launch by the frontier labs (who are btw also in an arms race to fight for share - thus more incentive to release good products fast) effectively halves the expected future growth for an entire basket of stocks overnight? See Anthropic’s new cybersec tool and the effect on cybersec stocks like CRWD/PANW/ZS

Honestly, I don’t even think it’s an overreaction yet. $MNDY still is valued $3b too high. Many of these cos are still trading at >40x p/e.

This is an existential threat and an actual reason to selloff many of these companies, maybe gone are the days where software companies are rewarded with high multiples. Advice to just bin the entire sector until we truly get a catalyst for reentry, rather than knife catching

One of the best environments for stock picking in years, or even decades

$NVDA print later - I have a well-sized long from @ $185 going into this. Stock has chopped around for months despite compute demand skyrocketing, all while its ecosystem rallied. This is in line with the wider breadth divergence seen since Nov 25 for small caps vs large caps. But I think we may finally see Nvidia catching a sustainable bid after this print

Also built out a bunch of Jap longs mostly focused on memory/optics value chain. Asia resurgence gaining steam, I’m probably not the earliest to it but just paying the generalist tax.

While I’m not a firm believer in the Asia resurgence narrative (don’t think geographical valuation gap ever closes etc etc), I think JP markets most closely resemble the laissez-faire / stimulus-heavy / geopolitically insulated characteristics of US markets.

$285A.JT
$5801.JT
$6834.JT
$3110.JT
$7012.JT

Preliminary thoughts on $PSTG print as am on a break these few weeks

Can’t help but feel like we’re living on an exponentially accelerated timeline and I can’t afford to take any time off; everyday there’s new things & launches and my FOMO wrt building/experimentation/idea generation/research has never been so high.

$AXTI may not just be a meme retail play..

JP stocks levered to optics doing well today too

$6834.JT
$5801.JT

I have no strong views on the current Iran/SoH crisis. While Fintwit has now magically transformed into geopolitical/oil experts (ex-software/SaaS experts), I’m aware enough to recognise that this isn’t my domain.

I can see both sides of the argument:
- Bear case is Trump didn’t plan for this, and now can’t wiggle out of this as he’s set off irreversible dominoes that has been in the making for more than 3 decades.
- Bull case is both sides are incentivised to off-ramp after a sufficient display of power; Trump needs to save the midterms (time is running out), and Iranians want to buy time to complete their nuclear program.

Given the volatility and uncertainty, yes I agree that the responsible thing to do wrt managing money is to degross to a manageable quantum.

That said, sentiments are overwhelmingly negative right now. The uncertainty now sets up a future catalyst path, as they will one day resolve back into certainty again.

From my limited experience, bulls REALLY love to climb a good wall of worry. A wall of worry works because it keeps sidelined investors from piling in all at once, thus saving incremental bidders to drive the market higher over time as certainty gradually resolves.