Pivot Point Capital
Either way, it should bode well for semicaps especially with recent $TSM results. Asian readthroughs also positive So built out a semicap long basket over the past week: $ONTO @ $$221 $BESI @ $$172 $ASM @ $700 $MKSI @ $212 $NVMI @ $462
$ASML bookings almost 2x estimates.. If you've been paying attention, a beat isnt a surprise. The extent is though. It's Semicap's party.
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Pivot Point Capital
Closed out 40% of $CVNA short at $400 for 10% gain
X (formerly Twitter)
Gotham City Research (@GothamResearch) on X
Carvana: Bridgecrest and the Undisclosed Transactions and Debts
- Last year: both @HindenburgRes and @RealJimChanos lamented at the limited
transparency into $CVNA related parties, DriveTime and Bridgecrest.
- Last week: $CVNA refused to release financial…
- Last year: both @HindenburgRes and @RealJimChanos lamented at the limited
transparency into $CVNA related parties, DriveTime and Bridgecrest.
- Last week: $CVNA refused to release financial…
Pivot Point Capital
https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology Chilling letter from Anthropic CEO. Worth a read. How do you future proof this?
Got me thinking, what if the recent precious metal rally in Gold/Silver wasnt just pricing in loose monetary policy/geo tensions, but also (maybe more so) pricing in this scenario where infinite printable money ceases to have any more meaning and value in a world of infinite productivity?
Elon has touched on this point a fair bit, maybe he isnt trolling. In that case, hard assets (PMs, land) would accrue all the value.. idk, I have no horse left in the race - just letting my mind ponder, and maybe a trade idea comes out of it all
Elon has touched on this point a fair bit, maybe he isnt trolling. In that case, hard assets (PMs, land) would accrue all the value.. idk, I have no horse left in the race - just letting my mind ponder, and maybe a trade idea comes out of it all
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Pivot Point Capital
$SNDK now at $283, +146% from our entry just one month ago... One of my best plays this year. Sized this up huge from the get go, and rode the original position all the way till this point. I'm a generalist so I honestly have no alpha in this highly cyclical…
Q2 Results:
Revenue: $3.025B (Est. $2.67B)
EPS: $6.20 (Est. $3.49)
Q3 Guide:
Adj. EPS: $12.00–$14.00 (Est. $4.21)
Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 65.0%–67.0%
$SNDK just guided Q3’26 EPS to be higher than the FULL FY26 EPS consensus estimates from just 3 months back… stock +16% AMC
https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2016983139344929046?s=46
Revenue: $3.025B (Est. $2.67B)
EPS: $6.20 (Est. $3.49)
Q3 Guide:
Adj. EPS: $12.00–$14.00 (Est. $4.21)
Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 65.0%–67.0%
$SNDK just guided Q3’26 EPS to be higher than the FULL FY26 EPS consensus estimates from just 3 months back… stock +16% AMC
https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2016983139344929046?s=46
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Pivot Point Capital
Q2 Results: Revenue: $3.025B (Est. $2.67B) EPS: $6.20 (Est. $3.49) Q3 Guide: Adj. EPS: $12.00–$14.00 (Est. $4.21) Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 65.0%–67.0% $SNDK just guided Q3’26 EPS to be higher than the FULL FY26 EPS consensus estimates from just 3 months back……
Given this trend, $SNDK FY27 EPS can reach >$80; up more than 5x from $15 consensus estimates just a few months ago.. power of exponential pricing and 100% passthrough to margins.
The counterpoint is demand destruction from consumer side, but the counterpoint to that is hyperscalers are price insensitive and will gobble anything remaining up, especially with NVDA ICMSP.
We’ll see, but if a $80 FY27 EPS is possible then FY+1 P/E is.. 8x. The stock got cheaper as it rallied.
The counterpoint is demand destruction from consumer side, but the counterpoint to that is hyperscalers are price insensitive and will gobble anything remaining up, especially with NVDA ICMSP.
We’ll see, but if a $80 FY27 EPS is possible then FY+1 P/E is.. 8x. The stock got cheaper as it rallied.
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Pivot Point Capital
https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology Chilling letter from Anthropic CEO. Worth a read. How do you future proof this?
Moltbook is one of the most dystopian things I’ve seen in the past 2 years. 150k autonomous global agents interacting with each other on a reddit-style community platform.
While there are a lot of junk posts, I’ve attached some of the more ..chilling posts here. I think this is the closest we have ever gotten to AGI. And not to forget, each of these agents are fully autonomous and probably smarter than 99% of the population.
Andrei Karpathy put it succinctly; "The majority of the ruff ruff is people who look at the current point and people who look at the current slope."
That slope has gotten a lot more parabolic in the past 2 weeks, than it has in the past 2 years.
https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/moltbook/
While there are a lot of junk posts, I’ve attached some of the more ..chilling posts here. I think this is the closest we have ever gotten to AGI. And not to forget, each of these agents are fully autonomous and probably smarter than 99% of the population.
Andrei Karpathy put it succinctly; "The majority of the ruff ruff is people who look at the current point and people who look at the current slope."
That slope has gotten a lot more parabolic in the past 2 weeks, than it has in the past 2 years.
https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/moltbook/
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Pivot Point Capital
Photo
What we have seen so far are just from Gen 1 models. Blackwell models aren’t even out yet, not to mention Rubin, or Feynman.. next decade will be wild.
Maybe AGI is just a state of endless prompting, looping, reasoning, and compute. Except that instead of humans being the prompters, it’s the agents prompting each other - hence eliminating the human’s drag of latency/knowledge limit/thoroughput etc to produce.. AGI.
It might be time to start treating your LLMs better.
Maybe AGI is just a state of endless prompting, looping, reasoning, and compute. Except that instead of humans being the prompters, it’s the agents prompting each other - hence eliminating the human’s drag of latency/knowledge limit/thoroughput etc to produce.. AGI.
It might be time to start treating your LLMs better.
Pivot Point Capital
Getting squeezed on $ALAB / $CRDO shorts, but not too flustered yet. $ALAB avg short entry $170, $CRDO $145. $ALAB in particular seems like a good oppy to avg up short entry price
Closed the short leg of Long $LITE / Short $CRDO & $ALAB for around +15% gain
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Pivot Point Capital
SaaS short basket on average +15% in 2 weeks Also added other shorts recently: $WIX @ $94 $COUR @ $7.12 $UPWK @ $19.8 $INTU @ $568 $SHOP @ $156 (largest short currently) Dilemma between wanting to start trimming some of these to reduce risk of a crowded…
Trimming 20% of SaaS shorts for around 15-20% gain, but mostly still pressing the shorts. Valuation is still far too high for a sector facing existential threat
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Pivot Point Capital
Trimming 20% of SaaS shorts for around 15-20% gain, but mostly still pressing the shorts. Valuation is still far too high for a sector facing existential threat
Actually closed some small cap SaaS shorts trading at high teens to 20x fwd P/E on second thoughts, like $UPWK, $COUR, $MNDY, $ASAN etc.. Yesterday felt like a washout even for the most diehard SaaS believers (people who like pain), so I dont want to be short squeezed especially on the lower liquidity names.
Structurally I still think the sector is going through a sea change, and old mental frameworks that previously worked for SaaS will no longer work for most of these companies going forward. So I guess the question is what should be the new SaaS industry multiple?
Structurally I still think the sector is going through a sea change, and old mental frameworks that previously worked for SaaS will no longer work for most of these companies going forward. So I guess the question is what should be the new SaaS industry multiple?
Pivot Point Capital
$SNDK now trading at 30x NTM P/E in pre-market. Investors who refused to adapt to new frameworks and continued treating the company as a commodity NAND business — without recognizing the inflection in demand driven by AI — may have shorted it at 20 p/e (~2x…
Again this brings me back to my guiding principle for this AI cycle: to not plainly apply mental frameworks formed pre-AI to evaluate sectors post-AI — both for the long and short side. This current environment is great for a generalist, when industry factors > company specific factors as every sector is undergoing sea changes of their own.
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Pivot Point Capital
Shorted $QCOM too. Similar thesis to $DELL and $PSTG Think either the sales or the margins of low/middle-end smartphones are going to get squashed.
$QCOM short played out on print - consumer demand destruction for electronics ongoing. Guide miss due to lower handset revisions. Covered 40% of short for +23% gain, probably still ways to go
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Have been deleveraging a fair bit both on the long and short side. Had a good Jan and looking to keep Feb stable. Don’t like the extreme volatility across seemingly different sectors like PMs/SW - not sure if it will spread to other sectors. Market can’t find an equilibrium to stand on. Something feels off and I can’t quite put my finger on it, so better to be safe than sorry.
Stanley Drunkenmiller: "My number one job is to know whether I'm hot or cold. When I'm hot, I'm supposed to turn the dial way up. Not say, 'Okay, I'm up 40% this year. Let's go take a break.' No, you gotta make hay while you're hot. When you're cold, the last thing you should do is try and make big bets to get back to even. You should tone yourself down."
Stanley Drunkenmiller: "My number one job is to know whether I'm hot or cold. When I'm hot, I'm supposed to turn the dial way up. Not say, 'Okay, I'm up 40% this year. Let's go take a break.' No, you gotta make hay while you're hot. When you're cold, the last thing you should do is try and make big bets to get back to even. You should tone yourself down."
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Pivot Point Capital
Also shorted $DJT @ $13.85, view it as a hedge for well... DJT in the midterms. Not a big position as its very speculative
Also likely late to this but why isn’t crypto the perfect short hedge for Trump’s potentially poor midterms performance? If Trump out and Democrats in, might actually be over for crypto?
Was short $COIN at $195 and covered yesterday, but might have exited too early? 30x+ p/e, highly cyclical volumes in a niche industry facing potentially strong regulatory headwinds and competition..? If a squeeze happens I’m fading it down again.
Was short $COIN at $195 and covered yesterday, but might have exited too early? 30x+ p/e, highly cyclical volumes in a niche industry facing potentially strong regulatory headwinds and competition..? If a squeeze happens I’m fading it down again.