Pivot Point Capital
$STX CEO from print earlier “Our near-line capacity is fully allocated through calendar year 2026, and we expect to begin accepting orders for the first half of calendar year 2027.” “Multiple cloud customers are discussing their demand growth projections…
Added more $285A.JT @ $19330
From Seagate results, it’s evident that the market is starting to look past CY26 and is focusing more on CY27++. Hence Kioxia shouldn’t be overly punished for its 2026 LTA with Apple, but rewarded for its higher exposure to eSSD in CY27+
From Seagate results, it’s evident that the market is starting to look past CY26 and is focusing more on CY27++. Hence Kioxia shouldn’t be overly punished for its 2026 LTA with Apple, but rewarded for its higher exposure to eSSD in CY27+
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Pivot Point Capital
While I still am holding the majority of my $SNDK position, I also longed more $285A.JT (Kioxia) @ $13139.5 Yen to add to NAND exposure. If the AI overlords are pushing NAND as a viable bridge between HDD and HBM, which was the original thesis for SNDK…
Besides I have always liked the wabi sabi ones more
https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology
Chilling letter from Anthropic CEO. Worth a read. How do you future proof this?
Chilling letter from Anthropic CEO. Worth a read. How do you future proof this?
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Pivot Point Capital
Either way, it should bode well for semicaps especially with recent $TSM results. Asian readthroughs also positive So built out a semicap long basket over the past week: $ONTO @ $$221 $BESI @ $$172 $ASM @ $700 $MKSI @ $212 $NVMI @ $462
$ASML bookings almost 2x estimates.. If you've been paying attention, a beat isnt a surprise. The extent is though. It's Semicap's party.
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Pivot Point Capital
Closed out 40% of $CVNA short at $400 for 10% gain
X (formerly Twitter)
Gotham City Research (@GothamResearch) on X
Carvana: Bridgecrest and the Undisclosed Transactions and Debts
- Last year: both @HindenburgRes and @RealJimChanos lamented at the limited
transparency into $CVNA related parties, DriveTime and Bridgecrest.
- Last week: $CVNA refused to release financial…
- Last year: both @HindenburgRes and @RealJimChanos lamented at the limited
transparency into $CVNA related parties, DriveTime and Bridgecrest.
- Last week: $CVNA refused to release financial…
Pivot Point Capital
https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology Chilling letter from Anthropic CEO. Worth a read. How do you future proof this?
Got me thinking, what if the recent precious metal rally in Gold/Silver wasnt just pricing in loose monetary policy/geo tensions, but also (maybe more so) pricing in this scenario where infinite printable money ceases to have any more meaning and value in a world of infinite productivity?
Elon has touched on this point a fair bit, maybe he isnt trolling. In that case, hard assets (PMs, land) would accrue all the value.. idk, I have no horse left in the race - just letting my mind ponder, and maybe a trade idea comes out of it all
Elon has touched on this point a fair bit, maybe he isnt trolling. In that case, hard assets (PMs, land) would accrue all the value.. idk, I have no horse left in the race - just letting my mind ponder, and maybe a trade idea comes out of it all
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Pivot Point Capital
$SNDK now at $283, +146% from our entry just one month ago... One of my best plays this year. Sized this up huge from the get go, and rode the original position all the way till this point. I'm a generalist so I honestly have no alpha in this highly cyclical…
Q2 Results:
Revenue: $3.025B (Est. $2.67B)
EPS: $6.20 (Est. $3.49)
Q3 Guide:
Adj. EPS: $12.00–$14.00 (Est. $4.21)
Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 65.0%–67.0%
$SNDK just guided Q3’26 EPS to be higher than the FULL FY26 EPS consensus estimates from just 3 months back… stock +16% AMC
https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2016983139344929046?s=46
Revenue: $3.025B (Est. $2.67B)
EPS: $6.20 (Est. $3.49)
Q3 Guide:
Adj. EPS: $12.00–$14.00 (Est. $4.21)
Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 65.0%–67.0%
$SNDK just guided Q3’26 EPS to be higher than the FULL FY26 EPS consensus estimates from just 3 months back… stock +16% AMC
https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2016983139344929046?s=46
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Pivot Point Capital
Q2 Results: Revenue: $3.025B (Est. $2.67B) EPS: $6.20 (Est. $3.49) Q3 Guide: Adj. EPS: $12.00–$14.00 (Est. $4.21) Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 65.0%–67.0% $SNDK just guided Q3’26 EPS to be higher than the FULL FY26 EPS consensus estimates from just 3 months back……
Given this trend, $SNDK FY27 EPS can reach >$80; up more than 5x from $15 consensus estimates just a few months ago.. power of exponential pricing and 100% passthrough to margins.
The counterpoint is demand destruction from consumer side, but the counterpoint to that is hyperscalers are price insensitive and will gobble anything remaining up, especially with NVDA ICMSP.
We’ll see, but if a $80 FY27 EPS is possible then FY+1 P/E is.. 8x. The stock got cheaper as it rallied.
The counterpoint is demand destruction from consumer side, but the counterpoint to that is hyperscalers are price insensitive and will gobble anything remaining up, especially with NVDA ICMSP.
We’ll see, but if a $80 FY27 EPS is possible then FY+1 P/E is.. 8x. The stock got cheaper as it rallied.
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Pivot Point Capital
https://www.darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology Chilling letter from Anthropic CEO. Worth a read. How do you future proof this?
Moltbook is one of the most dystopian things I’ve seen in the past 2 years. 150k autonomous global agents interacting with each other on a reddit-style community platform.
While there are a lot of junk posts, I’ve attached some of the more ..chilling posts here. I think this is the closest we have ever gotten to AGI. And not to forget, each of these agents are fully autonomous and probably smarter than 99% of the population.
Andrei Karpathy put it succinctly; "The majority of the ruff ruff is people who look at the current point and people who look at the current slope."
That slope has gotten a lot more parabolic in the past 2 weeks, than it has in the past 2 years.
https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/moltbook/
While there are a lot of junk posts, I’ve attached some of the more ..chilling posts here. I think this is the closest we have ever gotten to AGI. And not to forget, each of these agents are fully autonomous and probably smarter than 99% of the population.
Andrei Karpathy put it succinctly; "The majority of the ruff ruff is people who look at the current point and people who look at the current slope."
That slope has gotten a lot more parabolic in the past 2 weeks, than it has in the past 2 years.
https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jan/30/moltbook/
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Pivot Point Capital
Photo
What we have seen so far are just from Gen 1 models. Blackwell models aren’t even out yet, not to mention Rubin, or Feynman.. next decade will be wild.
Maybe AGI is just a state of endless prompting, looping, reasoning, and compute. Except that instead of humans being the prompters, it’s the agents prompting each other - hence eliminating the human’s drag of latency/knowledge limit/thoroughput etc to produce.. AGI.
It might be time to start treating your LLMs better.
Maybe AGI is just a state of endless prompting, looping, reasoning, and compute. Except that instead of humans being the prompters, it’s the agents prompting each other - hence eliminating the human’s drag of latency/knowledge limit/thoroughput etc to produce.. AGI.
It might be time to start treating your LLMs better.