Pivot Point Capital
https://open.substack.com/pub/semianalysis/p/co-packaged-optics-cpo-book-scaling?r=28qms&utm_medium=ios SemiAnalysis finally did a deep dive into Optics & CPO, with tickers for NVDA’s CPO supply chain hidden behind a paywall (spoiler: it’s probably $LITE)
Trimmed some $SNDK @ $336 and added to $LITE long @ $372
Also added to $ALAB short @ $158 and $CRDO short @ $132
CPO is here, but copper interconnect/electrical switches companies are still trading at 40-60x fwd p/e
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/05/3213255/0/en/NVIDIA-Kicks-Off-the-Next-Generation-of-AI-With-Rubin-Six-New-Chips-One-Incredible-AI-Supercomputer.html
Also added to $ALAB short @ $158 and $CRDO short @ $132
CPO is here, but copper interconnect/electrical switches companies are still trading at 40-60x fwd p/e
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/05/3213255/0/en/NVIDIA-Kicks-Off-the-Next-Generation-of-AI-With-Rubin-Six-New-Chips-One-Incredible-AI-Supercomputer.html
GlobeNewswire News Room
NVIDIA Kicks Off the Next Generation of AI With Rubin — Six New Chips, One Incredible AI Supercomputer
Extreme Codesign Across NVIDIA Vera CPU, Rubin GPU, NVLink 6 Switch, ConnectX-9 SuperNIC, BlueField-4 DPU and Spectrum-6 Ethernet Switch Slashes Training...
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Pivot Point Capital
Basically this lol
While I still am holding the majority of my $SNDK position, I also longed more $285A.JT (Kioxia) @ $13139.5 Yen to add to NAND exposure.
If the AI overlords are pushing NAND as a viable bridge between HDD and HBM, which was the original thesis for SNDK besides the structural memory demand from multimodal models, then a rising tide will lift all boats — even those that are a little wabi sabi off center.
I like it for its NAND pureplay aspect, but the risk is uncertainty regarding its LTA with Apple.
If the AI overlords are pushing NAND as a viable bridge between HDD and HBM, which was the original thesis for SNDK besides the structural memory demand from multimodal models, then a rising tide will lift all boats — even those that are a little wabi sabi off center.
I like it for its NAND pureplay aspect, but the risk is uncertainty regarding its LTA with Apple.
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Pivot Point Capital
Also added $AXTI long @ $12.11 to the optical basket Pure-play producer of InP substrates (key ingredient for EML chips) to LITE. In very short supply now as EML chips are pretty much sold out till 2027 -- see link above. Low cap play so inherently risky.…
$AXTI out of this at $15 btw for 20%+ gain. Stock has ran up huge since and has become kind of a retail meme stock.
Yesterday's print highlighted the risk mentioned - revenue/guide missed partially because of export control delays. The company is VERY reliant on China, and any export controls (or the delays or lifting of it) basically makes or breaks its earnings. Too binary for me to hold for long. That said, can see why retail likes it and why they may bid on this stock. Just treat it as a gamble.
Yesterday's print highlighted the risk mentioned - revenue/guide missed partially because of export control delays. The company is VERY reliant on China, and any export controls (or the delays or lifting of it) basically makes or breaks its earnings. Too binary for me to hold for long. That said, can see why retail likes it and why they may bid on this stock. Just treat it as a gamble.
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Past 2 weeks you can see an acceleration of pressure into midterms; Trump trying to press both short-term and long-term rates to elevate consumer sentiments
First with mortgage rates, then CC rates, and now legally prosecuting Powell.
Went long $RKT @ $22.4 and $BLDR @ $123.9 as a housing play; both are levered to housing construction starts & refinancing. The market’s first instinct is to always doubt Trump, but unironically we can make money taking him at his words most of the time. Still figuring out the short side for this trade though
https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2010510130970849338?s=46
First with mortgage rates, then CC rates, and now legally prosecuting Powell.
Went long $RKT @ $22.4 and $BLDR @ $123.9 as a housing play; both are levered to housing construction starts & refinancing. The market’s first instinct is to always doubt Trump, but unironically we can make money taking him at his words most of the time. Still figuring out the short side for this trade though
https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2010510130970849338?s=46
X (formerly Twitter)
Federal Reserve (@federalreserve) on X
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: https://t.co/5dfrkByGyX
Pivot Point Capital
Started a long position in $SLV @ $67.64
$SLV new highs @ $74.81
Precious metals are a good hedge for the narrative of the Fed losing its independence. Right for the wrong reasons here 😛
Precious metals are a good hedge for the narrative of the Fed losing its independence. Right for the wrong reasons here 😛
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Pivot Point Capital
Starting the count for CY26 for the semi-passive pf — start date 5/12/25. From 5/12/25 to 11/12/25, the pf has generated +2.6% vs SPY -0.3% and QQQ -0.4%. Making some changes going into 2026, key ones are: 1) removing AVGO - think there is a risk of them…
The unlevered semi-passive portfolio returned +13.3% vs. SPY +1.5% / QQQ +0.4%. Returns since 5/12/25 stands at +16.3% vs SPY +1.2% / QQQ flat.
Quite the good start to the year for the portfolio, driven mainly by direct exposure to memory manufacturers.
Recapping our goals:
✅ Middle basket: Designed to drive the highest return. This was mainly driven by memory, but I think optics will have its turn in the spotlight soon.
✅ Top basket: Provides stability.
❌ Bottom basket: Provides good risk/reward for the volatility we undertake there. Moonshots didn't perform as well as I had hoped, with the exception of AXTI. Though still not enough to compensate for the risk in the btm basket.
Making some changes: the portfolio's beta to AI/Tech is very high, so increasing diversification into housing/power will likely help (at the cost of sacrificing some potential upside).
- Closing CIEN, increasing exposure to LITE
- Trimming MU and META
- Increasing INTC
- Trimming U, increasing RDDT
- Adding new exposure to housing (RKT, BLDR)
- Adding new exposure to short GTM Power (BE, FSLR)
- Closing BABA
Quite the good start to the year for the portfolio, driven mainly by direct exposure to memory manufacturers.
Recapping our goals:
✅ Middle basket: Designed to drive the highest return. This was mainly driven by memory, but I think optics will have its turn in the spotlight soon.
✅ Top basket: Provides stability.
❌ Bottom basket: Provides good risk/reward for the volatility we undertake there. Moonshots didn't perform as well as I had hoped, with the exception of AXTI. Though still not enough to compensate for the risk in the btm basket.
Making some changes: the portfolio's beta to AI/Tech is very high, so increasing diversification into housing/power will likely help (at the cost of sacrificing some potential upside).
- Closing CIEN, increasing exposure to LITE
- Trimming MU and META
- Increasing INTC
- Trimming U, increasing RDDT
- Adding new exposure to housing (RKT, BLDR)
- Adding new exposure to short GTM Power (BE, FSLR)
- Closing BABA
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Pivot Point Capital
This is basically what I meant above. I’ve played around with Claude Code over the weekends and even at my beginner level, it’s already clear what it can do. Feels the closest to AGI, though in a small niche, as we have gotten. You’re now only limited by…
I struggle to envision how schools will function in the future; how can a fixed four-year degree keep up with the accelerating rate of change enabled by AI?
I used to think it was over for most of the white-collar workforce. Now, however, I’m starting to think society is simply moving from a 'boss-to-employees' structure to a 'boss-to-agents' model. Yes there will be layoffs, but this also effectively means that every employee can become a boss in their own right.
At the risk of sounding controversial, there may be no better time to be laid off, or to take a risk and venture into the unknown, bounded only by the limits of your curiosity and hunger.
Instead of adopting the defensive mindset of guarding your job against AI (a losing battle and a race against time), why not build something of your own instead? Given where AI agents are today and what they will likely become, you can start a functioning company today without hiring a single person. The resources available today for free are virtually limitless.
Consequently, my perception of AI’s impact on society is improving; it doesn’t have to be negative. If everyone has the tools to build what they imagine, we may see a surge of impactful new ideas and unicorns. While AI can create inequality, it can also level the playing field.
https://x.com/claudeai/status/2010805682434666759?s=46
I used to think it was over for most of the white-collar workforce. Now, however, I’m starting to think society is simply moving from a 'boss-to-employees' structure to a 'boss-to-agents' model. Yes there will be layoffs, but this also effectively means that every employee can become a boss in their own right.
At the risk of sounding controversial, there may be no better time to be laid off, or to take a risk and venture into the unknown, bounded only by the limits of your curiosity and hunger.
Instead of adopting the defensive mindset of guarding your job against AI (a losing battle and a race against time), why not build something of your own instead? Given where AI agents are today and what they will likely become, you can start a functioning company today without hiring a single person. The resources available today for free are virtually limitless.
Consequently, my perception of AI’s impact on society is improving; it doesn’t have to be negative. If everyone has the tools to build what they imagine, we may see a surge of impactful new ideas and unicorns. While AI can create inequality, it can also level the playing field.
https://x.com/claudeai/status/2010805682434666759?s=46
X (formerly Twitter)
Claude (@claudeai) on X
Introducing Cowork: Claude Code for the rest of your work.
Cowork lets you complete non-technical tasks much like how developers use Claude Code.
Cowork lets you complete non-technical tasks much like how developers use Claude Code.
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Pivot Point Capital
Longed some $BE @ $88 and $FSLR @ $284 over the past week. My picks for DCAI power plays
Perfect for short GTM independent power sources $BE $FSLR
Pivot Point Capital
$SLV new highs @ $74.81 Precious metals are a good hedge for the narrative of the Fed losing its independence. Right for the wrong reasons here 😛
$SLV @ $80.6 now, +19% from entry.
All silver-related positions are in profit.
$AG @ $20.3 +18%
$USAS @ $6.07 +4%
I think silver has more gas, but I closed $SLV & $USAS, and am consolidating into $AG.
All silver-related positions are in profit.
$AG @ $20.3 +18%
$USAS @ $6.07 +4%
I think silver has more gas, but I closed $SLV & $USAS, and am consolidating into $AG.
Pivot Point Capital
Intel expected to begin shipping Apple’s lowest-end M processor as early as 2027 Consider OP to be reliable on Apple supply chain info. If true, it’s an upside to my base expectations. I thought the first 18AP customer, if any, would be a low-end high volume…
Intel on the move after a possible slip of the tongue by Trump revealing Apple's investment in Intel. Would be great to get official confirmation on this - until then it remains yet another rumor in a headline-driven stock.
Another possibility is the CPU shortage narrative that is surfacing, but I am leaning towards the former given that $AMD / $ARM arent reacting much yet.
To recap - those who have been around here for awhile knows INTC is one of my highest conviction picks for H2'25 and CY26+. First added @ $22, and have continued to add to the position around $29-$38.
https://x.com/jyiscs/status/2011246865095016715?s=46
$INTC
Another possibility is the CPU shortage narrative that is surfacing, but I am leaning towards the former given that $AMD / $ARM arent reacting much yet.
To recap - those who have been around here for awhile knows INTC is one of my highest conviction picks for H2'25 and CY26+. First added @ $22, and have continued to add to the position around $29-$38.
https://x.com/jyiscs/status/2011246865095016715?s=46
$INTC
X (formerly Twitter)
patternrecognized (@JyiscS) on X
Trump confirmed Apple went in for Intel $intc
4:05
https://t.co/KvJD7vtBRY
Original post https://t.co/sQ80dnawYw
4:05
https://t.co/KvJD7vtBRY
Original post https://t.co/sQ80dnawYw
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Pivot Point Capital
I’m hopeful (faith is inversely correlated with the # of times that OAI/ORCL appears in headlines) that the $MU print can be the catalyst that shifts market sentiment about AI. MS and many others are already drawing parallels between Micron’s surprise beat…
$MU big bang quarter brought the key question for memory stocks into the spotlight, and Jensen’s recent CES speech answered it:
1) memory and storage becoming the primary bottlenecks
2) introducing ICMSP
3) calling out the massive NAND requirement for ballooning context and agentic tasks
Guess that was the catalyst for the market’s current rerating of $MU and $SNDK from cyclical players of the past to critical components of the AI infrastructure machine, with growth now expected to scale alongside token consumption in the future. The timeline couldn’t have been better
1) memory and storage becoming the primary bottlenecks
2) introducing ICMSP
3) calling out the massive NAND requirement for ballooning context and agentic tasks
Guess that was the catalyst for the market’s current rerating of $MU and $SNDK from cyclical players of the past to critical components of the AI infrastructure machine, with growth now expected to scale alongside token consumption in the future. The timeline couldn’t have been better
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Can’t recall a time when market dispersion was this high with so many quality candidates on both the long and short sides driven by clear structural tailwinds / headwinds.
Is this how trading the Dot-Com bubble felt like? Wild times.. though crowding risk is a top consideration
Is this how trading the Dot-Com bubble felt like? Wild times.. though crowding risk is a top consideration
Pivot Point Capital
$MU big bang quarter brought the key question for memory stocks into the spotlight, and Jensen’s recent CES speech answered it: 1) memory and storage becoming the primary bottlenecks 2) introducing ICMSP 3) calling out the massive NAND requirement for ballooning…
First insider buy - pretty sizeable one too - on $MU since 2022, up at these levels. No prize for guessing what signals they’re trying to send. If the market won’t rerate my stock I’ll do it myself
https://x.com/hedgevision/status/2011964664746274834?s=46
https://x.com/hedgevision/status/2011964664746274834?s=46
X (formerly Twitter)
Hedge Vision (@HedgeVision) on X
$MU Director Mark Liu buys $7.82 million of shares, marking the first insider purchase since 2022.
Micron is up by 226% over the past year.
Micron is up by 226% over the past year.
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed some $SNDK @ $336 and added to $LITE long @ $372 Also added to $ALAB short @ $158 and $CRDO short @ $132 CPO is here, but copper interconnect/electrical switches companies are still trading at 40-60x fwd p/e https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r…
Getting squeezed on $ALAB / $CRDO shorts, but not too flustered yet. $ALAB avg short entry $170, $CRDO $145. $ALAB in particular seems like a good oppy to avg up short entry price
Pivot Point Capital
Added to $MNDY short @ $147 New shorts: $ASAN @ $13.1 $CTSH @ $81.1 $INFY @ 17.8 $ACN @ $261 Building out the short side.
SaaS short basket on average +15% in 2 weeks
Also added other shorts recently:
$WIX @ $94
$COUR @ $7.12
$UPWK @ $19.8
$INTU @ $568
$SHOP @ $156 (largest short currently)
Dilemma between wanting to start trimming some of these to reduce risk of a crowded short squeeze, yet on the other hand i think many of these SaaS co. should actually be a zero in today's context
Also added other shorts recently:
$WIX @ $94
$COUR @ $7.12
$UPWK @ $19.8
$INTU @ $568
$SHOP @ $156 (largest short currently)
Dilemma between wanting to start trimming some of these to reduce risk of a crowded short squeeze, yet on the other hand i think many of these SaaS co. should actually be a zero in today's context
Entered $FIVE short @ $202 yesterday. Old nemesis, but in all seriousness think its a weak business model and a great hedge for tariffs (if that headline returns)
Also shorted $DJT @ $13.85, view it as a hedge for well... DJT in the midterms. Not a big position as its very speculative