Shorted $MNDY @ $143.19

While it’s no surprise that SaaS has underperformed over the past year, I believe the market is still severely underestimating the threat to these companies. Traditional SaaS business models with multi-billions in market cap can be zeroed out overnight as the public begins experimenting with vibe-coding of their own apps with high-level AI like Claude Code. Why should I buy a license from you when I can vibe code a localized app suited for my niche purpose in 4 hours from simply typing in a prompt?

Since the marginal cost of creating a specialized UI or workflow is approaching zero — and the traditional barrier of entry of coding skills has been effectively removed by Claude— the best applications can now come from the most creative individuals, rather than the most well-funded engineering teams. It can come from ANYONE with an idea that doesn’t even need to be original! This introduces a massive wave of new competition.

Companies that are essentially "wrappers" around a process, lacking a proprietary data moat or a "liquidity" network effect like a 2-sided marketplace, face a serious existential threat. I’m not even joking, vibe coding sounds like such a meme, but the threat to these multi-billion-dollar companies is astronomical imo. And if these are the capabilities of Claude Code today, what in 2 years? 10 years?

While being zeroed out overnight may be an exaggeration, this is such a perfect structural short over the short to mid term.

One of the best P&L days for me ever - probably retraces some on Monday. Happy weekends!

This is basically what I meant above.

I’ve played around with Claude Code over the weekends and even at my beginner level, it’s already clear what it can do. Feels the closest to AGI, though in a small niche, as we have gotten. You’re now only limited by your creativity. Similar scenario to what OAI’s Sora did for memory stocks.

Many things will be repriced in the coming weeks imo, both on the long and short side. There will be winners and losers. Most imptly, there will be dispersion — which means opportunities.

IMO one of the best forms of upskilling that you can do now, regardless of your primary domain, is to get good at Claude Code. The possibilities are endless here and the barrier of entry into code creation has never been lower. And creation is infinite by definition

Added to $MNDY short @ $147

New shorts:
$ASAN @ $13.1
$CTSH @ $81.1
$INFY @ 17.8
$ACN @ $261

Building out the short side.

On the long side, I’ve been thinking: if the cost of app and site creation is being commoditized and trending toward zero, we’re going to see a proliferation of these sites. We're already seeing people go for the lowest-hanging fruits — looking up the top five revenue-generating apps on Sensor Tower and asking CC to clone them.

In that case, where does the value accrue? My bet is on the distribution channels: adtech. Cloned apps still lack users and will have to advertise heavily to gain market share. It’s kinda similar to how Meta Ads was fueled by the dropshipping guru era during Covid.?

Except this time, it’s not a proliferation of storefronts and goods dropshipped from China —it’s a spread of apps made in under two hours, designed to manufacture quick adoption and cheap dopamine. Fast fashion, in SaaS.

$APP is the dominant mobile app adtech player. I think $RDDT benefits too, given its audience. $U is another high-beta mobile adtech player in the midst of a turnaround, which I like. I went long on all three yesterday at $621, $243, and $44.50 respectively.

New highs! Absolute monster

Last paragraph above detailed our pre-set game plan for playing this memory rally; I think execution was great throughout.

- First went long $SNDK @ $115, sold $260
- Shorted $227, covered $200
- Re-entered long and made it 3rd largest position @ $194-$220, still holding

Anyway, seems like this is driving the memory move. Incrementally more positive for NAND ssd, and $SNDK also has lots of headspace to grow in enterprise ssd = growing pie + growing share for Sandisk. Lots of spaghetti words in the article but would make for good research tmr. Just kinda weird the stock didn’t move till open.

https://blocksandfiles.com/2026/01/06/nvidia-standardizes-gpu-cluster-kv-cache-offload-to-nvme-ssds/

Trimmed some $SNDK @ $336 and added to $LITE long @ $372

Also added to $ALAB short @ $158 and $CRDO short @ $132

CPO is here, but copper interconnect/electrical switches companies are still trading at 40-60x fwd p/e

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/05/3213255/0/en/NVIDIA-Kicks-Off-the-Next-Generation-of-AI-With-Rubin-Six-New-Chips-One-Incredible-AI-Supercomputer.html

While I still am holding the majority of my $SNDK position, I also longed more $285A.JT (Kioxia) @ $13139.5 Yen to add to NAND exposure.

If the AI overlords are pushing NAND as a viable bridge between HDD and HBM, which was the original thesis for SNDK besides the structural memory demand from multimodal models, then a rising tide will lift all boats — even those that are a little wabi sabi off center.

I like it for its NAND pureplay aspect, but the risk is uncertainty regarding its LTA with Apple.

$AXTI out of this at $15 btw for 20%+ gain. Stock has ran up huge since and has become kind of a retail meme stock.

Yesterday's print highlighted the risk mentioned - revenue/guide missed partially because of export control delays. The company is VERY reliant on China, and any export controls (or the delays or lifting of it) basically makes or breaks its earnings. Too binary for me to hold for long. That said, can see why retail likes it and why they may bid on this stock. Just treat it as a gamble.

Past 2 weeks you can see an acceleration of pressure into midterms; Trump trying to press both short-term and long-term rates to elevate consumer sentiments

First with mortgage rates, then CC rates, and now legally prosecuting Powell.

Went long $RKT @ $22.4 and $BLDR @ $123.9 as a housing play; both are levered to housing construction starts & refinancing. The market’s first instinct is to always doubt Trump, but unironically we can make money taking him at his words most of the time. Still figuring out the short side for this trade though

https://x.com/federalreserve/status/2010510130970849338?s=46

$SLV new highs @ $74.81

Precious metals are a good hedge for the narrative of the Fed losing its independence. Right for the wrong reasons here 😛

I struggle to envision how schools will function in the future; how can a fixed four-year degree keep up with the accelerating rate of change enabled by AI?

I used to think it was over for most of the white-collar workforce. Now, however, I’m starting to think society is simply moving from a 'boss-to-employees' structure to a 'boss-to-agents' model. Yes there will be layoffs, but this also effectively means that every employee can become a boss in their own right.

At the risk of sounding controversial, there may be no better time to be laid off, or to take a risk and venture into the unknown, bounded only by the limits of your curiosity and hunger.

Instead of adopting the defensive mindset of guarding your job against AI (a losing battle and a race against time), why not build something of your own instead? Given where AI agents are today and what they will likely become, you can start a functioning company today without hiring a single person. The resources available today for free are virtually limitless.

Consequently, my perception of AI’s impact on society is improving; it doesn’t have to be negative. If everyone has the tools to build what they imagine, we may see a surge of impactful new ideas and unicorns. While AI can create inequality, it can also level the playing field.

https://x.com/claudeai/status/2010805682434666759?s=46

Perfect for short GTM independent power sources $BE $FSLR

$SLV @ $80.6 now, +19% from entry.

All silver-related positions are in profit.
$AG @ $20.3 +18%
$USAS @ $6.07 +4%

I think silver has more gas, but I closed $SLV & $USAS, and am consolidating into $AG.

Intel on the move after a possible slip of the tongue by Trump revealing Apple's investment in Intel. Would be great to get official confirmation on this - until then it remains yet another rumor in a headline-driven stock.

Another possibility is the CPU shortage narrative that is surfacing, but I am leaning towards the former given that $AMD / $ARM arent reacting much yet.

To recap - those who have been around here for awhile knows INTC is one of my highest conviction picks for H2'25 and CY26+. First added @ $22, and have continued to add to the position around $29-$38.

https://x.com/jyiscs/status/2011246865095016715?s=46

$INTC

Monster print + margin guide by $TSM. The show must go on

2026 Capex guided above St to $52-56b for a conservative company. Semicaps reacting well