$BABA up 9% in U.S. hours. Seems like US -> China rotation from U.S. investors. Gaining more foreign bullievers it appears. Looks ready to go higher.

If you have been observing, there’s some alpha on which hours the China stocks are pumping, which can give insight into flows. Stocks like BABA are listed on U.S., HK, and the Southbound Connect which connects to China. The hours that it pulls back or pumps, can tell you which group of buyers is buying or selling in the ST.

Fully covered $VST @ $116 and $APP @ $257. Beautiful shorts. $APP was one of the best; first short entry was @ $442.

I think $APP has more to fall tbh, but I’m happy expressing that view via a $U long as I think we might get a ST technical market wide bounce.

Someone I have lots of respect for wrote about the winner’s and loser’s game today. I think there’s a lot of resemblance to the markets today, and life in general.

In short, a winner’s game is a game where you have to do more, perform at your best to win, put on your best performance, maximise edges whenever possible etc. Counting on yourself to make good plays to come out ahead.

A loser’s game is one where you have to not lose, to outlast, to win. Survive volatility, temper risk, manage greed. Counting on your opponents to make a mistake, to come out ahead.

I believe the U.S. markets today is that of a loser’s game. People have been conditioned to buy dips for years, but if you take Trump’s words as it is (a surprising source of alpha), then we are in for some rough times for a while. Many will chop their portfolio up trying to trade this, with nothing left to capitalise on cheap stocks at the trough.

Dont be that guy. Decrease turnover, increase quality of plays. While it’s not obvious at first glance, markets are also zero-sum like tennis. Your gain comes from someone’s loss. It’s PvP in nature, and sometimes you can come out ahead simply by surviving through the tough times (while everyone else offs themselves trying to trade the chops), and having cash ready to buy the troughs.

Needless to say wrong on ST technical bounce.

But overall made it out ok as we started entering shorts on 22nd Feb, and got more aggressive on exiting US longs and doubling down on US shorts over the next week after NVDA’s earnings. This helped to protect our YTD%.

China has been a good hedge to US momentum; some contagion drawdown there on our longs but relatively speaking, doing ok.

Started building out an EU defense/infrastructure basket too, on shifting geopolitical tensions. Little late for this, but I could see increased EU fiscal/defense spending as a sustainable mid-term trend.

I also don’t think that was THE top for US stocks, and while we might take some time to reach the bottom, it might be good to start keeping a watchlist for potential AI software winners (AI Phase 2) that are going to be/already is on bargain.

Fully covered all shorts except for $FIVE.

Rebuilding longs on $HOOD @ $36 and $U @ $21.9. Risking the biscuit for a ST bounce. I’m okay with knife catching a little as we have sidestepped most of the past 3wks correction.

Trimmed ancillary China positions here — keeping $BABA. Added more US longs in pre-m ($VST @ $115, $HOOD @ $37).

China getting a little too consensus, thus the trim.

U.S. economic uncertainty index hitting COVID levels.. This feels too much to me.

In the ST, the r/r on US longs seems higher to me. Basically how much worse can sentiments get in the ST?

- Trump is already spitting the Tariff word 200 times/min
- Canada is not backing down easily (hence market already pricing in a protracted trade war vs 1 week ago when market expected tariffed partners to back down quickly)
- When Trump’s team has essentially repeated everyday that they want stocks lower

Simply put, there’s more upside cases to be made here imo; Trump walks back tariffs, Canada gives in etc.

Again, this is my ST view, which can change quickly with new information.

Cold CPI; some fuel to change sentiments. Added more $U @ $21.3 and $BLDR @ $132. Don’t let Trump on TV tonight please

Adding a long position on $INTC @ $22.61 in the overnight market. Prob gonna hold this position for the short-mid term.

Very bullish on Lip-bu Tan. There’s probably only a few people in the world that can turnaround INTC, and one of them is probably him. Got to read about him in his turnaround of Cadence Design Systems ($CDNS), and remember thinking to myself how lucky would I be if I could go back a decade to bet on him. Now there’s a chance, and some regulatory + political tailwinds. So r/r for a long seems right to me.

I view $INTC as a very binary bet. $INTC shouldn’t be priced based on its NTM or even next 2 years earnings, but on the success rate of a turnaround.

If LBT succeeds, and $INTC is able to win back share in CPU + gain competitiveness in GPU + develop a reputable foundry, $INTC is easily @ $40-$60. If he fails, $INTC prob hangs around $15-$20. Potential acquisition probably provides a safe floor, and even Pat’s aimless leadership + expulsion can’t get it below $20.

(Success % x midpoint price if success) + (failure % x midpoint price if fails) = $INTC current price.

15% x $50 + 85% x $17.5. We can argue about the price if success and price if failure, but this is how I’m thinking about it.

Based on this napkin maths, market probably pricing the news as a ~15% successful turnaround. Our job here is to decide whether the success rate is likely higher than 15% or not.

Given LBT’s wide industry connections (helps partnerships), reputation (helps morale), technical expertise and turnaround experience (helps investors’ sentiments), I think it’s worth a bet. I don’t think it will be easy, in fact I think there will be a lot of resistance both internally and externally, but I like the r/r.

Very speculative in nature of course (he hasn’t even taken over yet), but with these types of binary bets, I find that it’s better to build a position early (when market is already pricing in a 85% failure) and cut/add more if incremental info comes out to prove us wrong/right, than to enter only when information comes out to prove success > 50%.

Just my 2c on how I view such bets. And given LBT’s VC background, might be what he’s thinking too to risk his entire legacy on this high-profile turnaround at such an advanced age. (eg If he fails, it’s not him, it’s the company)

Friday gave us the ST bounce we were looking for in U.S. stocks. However, I don’t think that the worst is over wrt tariffs and Trump-uncertainty.

Hence I’ve gone SHORT on $TSLA and $PLTR as a hedge to my U.S. longs ($VST $BLDR $INTC $U). Exited $HOOD long as I decided momo growth stocks are still kinda risky to be in.

I view $TSLA as a real-time Trump <> market frustration meter; one of the best way to make Trump cave is through selling down $TSLA price.

Holding $FIVE short into their print tmr morning at 4:30am.

They have already reported their holiday sales # from Nov - Jan, which came in at the high end of their P.Q. guidance. Holiday sales makes up ~86% of their Q4'25 sales, and St is also already on the high end of FIVE guidance for Q4'25, so I think the print risk is small. Guess the only upside risk might come from N.Q., but I think it’ll be meh in this consumer climate.

Will add to the short if market gives a chance post-print. Still very bearish on the company in the mid term. Probably one of the few companies that face the perfect storm of tariffs and breakdown of global trade, recession, labor shortage from anti-immigration, and Temu e-commerce threat.

Not confident on the recent mgmt change too as new CEO was previously in-charge of 2 companies that went bankrupt; doesn’t spark joy. Dont think they can turn around this ship as they are still opening new stores despite downwards trending new store productivity, I think cannibalization is high. Idk, I think their entire business model is built on stilts. They’ll prob end up as predominantly discount snacks/candy/necessities stores like DG or DLTR, but with significantly less scale and distribution efficiencies. May be overly bearish, but I do have a bias against this company (hate it).

https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-new-ceo-plots-overhaul-manufacturing-ai-operations-2025-03-17/

$INTC LBT not wasting any time

Also added $PDD long @ $125.9 to play for their earnings Thursday.

Bit of a laggard in this China run-up (maybe because of the PTSD from their prev quarter mess), but with the shift towards “allowing founders to get rich first” by the CCP and the consumption-based stimulus launched last weekend that’s targeted at low income cities/HHs — which PDD dominates, I think r/r makes sense for a long.

Shifted $1810.HK long and trimmed some $BABA to build a larger $PDD allocation; too cheap to ignore

Made use of the last few days’ bounce to build my shorts against $PLTR $TSLA. Avg cost basis is ~$83.83 and $240.62 respectively now. Shorted $NVDA @ $118.74 too.

Feeling quite comfy with the overall portfolio positioning now. General positioning is:

LONG China ($BABA $PDD $9880.HK), LONG outsized r/r turnaround bets ($INTC $U)

SHORT 2024 crowded longs with rising political and competition risk that are also at risk of a momentum unwind ($TSLA $PLTR $NVDA), and $FIVE which I explained yesterday

Cut $PDD, miss on rev but beat on EPS.

I don’t get nor like the top line miss, since other operators were reporting improvements in top line. Limiting China positions to $BABA and $9880.HK for now

On $FIVE, I actually don’t understand why it’s up 10% off that earnings. Yes they beat by a small magnitude on all metrics and Q1 guidance, but all of the fundamental issues of the company still exist.

Their attempt to branch into >$5 products is not working, and store growth is also slowing. Leadership also sounds clueless and rambles on aimlessly when answering questions…

I may be wrong but I’m staying short. Risk case is market expectations are already so low, that even regaining some minor form of stability for the company is being perceived as “large improvements”.

Getting squeezed on these shorts is painful. We were right on the incoming ST bounce (catalyst path for longs had higher r/r, and trump did eventually walked back on tariffs as we expected), but wrong on the magnitude of the bounce; execution of the trade could have been so much better.

Additionally because of the bounce, some capital flow has also reversed from China, which led to pullbacks on our longs. Overall, I think areas of improvement is 1) better understanding what is my net exposure and key risks, as sometimes long + short exposure = risk^2 — e.g. being long China/short US momo stocks makes the portfolio very susceptible to flow reversal, and 2) when it comes to a “flows” reversal trade, the magnitude can be much more sizeable than my original expectation due to squeezes. We should have pared our shorts more cautiously as the market has already corrected significantly and given the long-favoured catalyst path, and been more aggressive in holding our $HOOD long.

Gave up some gains; now at +9% YTD. We live and learn! Reduced shorts across the board to manage risk but remain short on $TSLA $PLTR $FIVE, kept $BABA $9880.HK longs on as I think China still outperforms. Also added to $BLDR as one of my core US long positions as a beneficiary of lower interest rates, along with $INTC.