Added to $FSLR long @ $272

Also longed some $AG @ $17.13 and $USAS @ $5.82. Bit late to the silver party but I think there’s more gas in the tank, esp with US solar buildout being a tailwind.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to everyone! 🥳

We are down to the last few trading days of the year. Thank you for being here with me through all the Ws and Ls—I hope this channel provided some value to you. May everyone achieve their goals in 2026; the best is yet to come!

Reshorted some $CRDO @ $148.57 and $ALAB @ $167.54

And added to $INTC @ $36.34

Silver is ripping in the futures market, which is currently in extreme backwardation. I might be wrong given my generalist background, but there is significant chatter regarding silver on ‘FinTwit.’ While I would normally view this as a sign of a peak, I believe it could actually go higher than expected — though I’m not excluding short-term corrections.

Solar buildout —the marginal energy growth that can be quickly deployed for AI infrastructure— is driving silver demand for the first time in 25 years. Beyond speculative fervor, real industrial use cases are driving this shortage.

I bought a small physical silver position over the weekend to hodl, though my miners position remains 30x larger. Miners haven’t moved much despite the silver rally over the past month, likely because the market views this move as unsustainable. Contrary to that sentiment, I expect a higher mid-term range for the metal, and that should trigger a repricing for miners whose earnings power is heavily levered to silver prices.

As Trump said, everything is computer; AI is driving repricings in far-fetched markets.

Started a long position in $SLV @ $67.64

https://open.substack.com/pub/semianalysis/p/co-packaged-optics-cpo-book-scaling?r=28qms&utm_medium=ios

SemiAnalysis finally did a deep dive into Optics & CPO, with tickers for NVDA’s CPO supply chain hidden behind a paywall (spoiler: it’s probably $LITE)

Crazy open for the L/S port. Sold some 35 DTE 0.2-0.25 delta covered calls on INTC, MU, SNDK, SLV -- my way of taking small partial profits.

Didn’t sell too many SNDK/INTC calls tho as earnings are within the next 30 days, so don’t want to sell the calls into print.

Closed out 40% of $CVNA short at $400 for 10% gain

Shorted $MNDY @ $143.19

While it’s no surprise that SaaS has underperformed over the past year, I believe the market is still severely underestimating the threat to these companies. Traditional SaaS business models with multi-billions in market cap can be zeroed out overnight as the public begins experimenting with vibe-coding of their own apps with high-level AI like Claude Code. Why should I buy a license from you when I can vibe code a localized app suited for my niche purpose in 4 hours from simply typing in a prompt?

Since the marginal cost of creating a specialized UI or workflow is approaching zero — and the traditional barrier of entry of coding skills has been effectively removed by Claude— the best applications can now come from the most creative individuals, rather than the most well-funded engineering teams. It can come from ANYONE with an idea that doesn’t even need to be original! This introduces a massive wave of new competition.

Companies that are essentially "wrappers" around a process, lacking a proprietary data moat or a "liquidity" network effect like a 2-sided marketplace, face a serious existential threat. I’m not even joking, vibe coding sounds like such a meme, but the threat to these multi-billion-dollar companies is astronomical imo. And if these are the capabilities of Claude Code today, what in 2 years? 10 years?

While being zeroed out overnight may be an exaggeration, this is such a perfect structural short over the short to mid term.

One of the best P&L days for me ever - probably retraces some on Monday. Happy weekends!

This is basically what I meant above.

I’ve played around with Claude Code over the weekends and even at my beginner level, it’s already clear what it can do. Feels the closest to AGI, though in a small niche, as we have gotten. You’re now only limited by your creativity. Similar scenario to what OAI’s Sora did for memory stocks.

Many things will be repriced in the coming weeks imo, both on the long and short side. There will be winners and losers. Most imptly, there will be dispersion — which means opportunities.

IMO one of the best forms of upskilling that you can do now, regardless of your primary domain, is to get good at Claude Code. The possibilities are endless here and the barrier of entry into code creation has never been lower. And creation is infinite by definition

Added to $MNDY short @ $147

New shorts:
$ASAN @ $13.1
$CTSH @ $81.1
$INFY @ 17.8
$ACN @ $261

Building out the short side.

On the long side, I’ve been thinking: if the cost of app and site creation is being commoditized and trending toward zero, we’re going to see a proliferation of these sites. We're already seeing people go for the lowest-hanging fruits — looking up the top five revenue-generating apps on Sensor Tower and asking CC to clone them.

In that case, where does the value accrue? My bet is on the distribution channels: adtech. Cloned apps still lack users and will have to advertise heavily to gain market share. It’s kinda similar to how Meta Ads was fueled by the dropshipping guru era during Covid.?

Except this time, it’s not a proliferation of storefronts and goods dropshipped from China —it’s a spread of apps made in under two hours, designed to manufacture quick adoption and cheap dopamine. Fast fashion, in SaaS.

$APP is the dominant mobile app adtech player. I think $RDDT benefits too, given its audience. $U is another high-beta mobile adtech player in the midst of a turnaround, which I like. I went long on all three yesterday at $621, $243, and $44.50 respectively.

New highs! Absolute monster

Last paragraph above detailed our pre-set game plan for playing this memory rally; I think execution was great throughout.

- First went long $SNDK @ $115, sold $260
- Shorted $227, covered $200
- Re-entered long and made it 3rd largest position @ $194-$220, still holding

Anyway, seems like this is driving the memory move. Incrementally more positive for NAND ssd, and $SNDK also has lots of headspace to grow in enterprise ssd = growing pie + growing share for Sandisk. Lots of spaghetti words in the article but would make for good research tmr. Just kinda weird the stock didn’t move till open.

https://blocksandfiles.com/2026/01/06/nvidia-standardizes-gpu-cluster-kv-cache-offload-to-nvme-ssds/

Trimmed some $SNDK @ $336 and added to $LITE long @ $372

Also added to $ALAB short @ $158 and $CRDO short @ $132

CPO is here, but copper interconnect/electrical switches companies are still trading at 40-60x fwd p/e

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/01/05/3213255/0/en/NVIDIA-Kicks-Off-the-Next-Generation-of-AI-With-Rubin-Six-New-Chips-One-Incredible-AI-Supercomputer.html

While I still am holding the majority of my $SNDK position, I also longed more $285A.JT (Kioxia) @ $13139.5 Yen to add to NAND exposure.

If the AI overlords are pushing NAND as a viable bridge between HDD and HBM, which was the original thesis for SNDK besides the structural memory demand from multimodal models, then a rising tide will lift all boats — even those that are a little wabi sabi off center.

I like it for its NAND pureplay aspect, but the risk is uncertainty regarding its LTA with Apple.

$AXTI out of this at $15 btw for 20%+ gain. Stock has ran up huge since and has become kind of a retail meme stock.

Yesterday's print highlighted the risk mentioned - revenue/guide missed partially because of export control delays. The company is VERY reliant on China, and any export controls (or the delays or lifting of it) basically makes or breaks its earnings. Too binary for me to hold for long. That said, can see why retail likes it and why they may bid on this stock. Just treat it as a gamble.