I’m hopeful (faith is inversely correlated with the # of times that OAI/ORCL appears in headlines) that the $MU print can be the catalyst that shifts market sentiment about AI.

MS and many others are already drawing parallels between Micron’s surprise beat-and-raise and $NVDA’s "big bang" guidance raise in May 2023 —the event that effectively ignited the multi-year bull run for Nvidia and the wider AI complex. The similarities in the headlines are striking:

NVIDIA (May 2023): "NVIDIA SEES 2Q REV. $11.00B +/- 2%, EST. $7.18B"
Micron (Now): "Micron sees Q2 Adj Rev $18.3B–$19.1B (est. $14.38B)"

Nvidia's inflection point fundamentally expanded investors' vision of what the GPU TAM could become, fueled by insatiable AI compute demand.

If this is indeed the "big bang" quarter for Micron, it forcefully brings a pivotal question into the spotlight: should Micron— and the broader ecosystem of historically cyclical and commoditised industries like memory and optics —continue to be penalized due to their extreme cyclicality? If so, then $MU near-single-digit fwd P/E while growing EPS at near triple digits sequentially is justified.

If not, then the alternative is that these companies should be re-rated as critical AI enablers that allow the AI cycle to continue scaling non-linearly. After all, we may only be in the first innings of multi-modal models’ capabilities; it is impossible to predict what their memory and storage requirements will look like five years— or even twelve months—from now. Pre-training scaling law is also still intact, while test-time compute and chain of thought reinforcement learning have simultaneously expanded the boundaries of model training — in essence, models are still getting smarter.

Ultimately, this depends on one’s long-term view of AI’s utility and how long we take to get there. How much will SamA/Elon/the hyperscalers chase? How motivated are they? Because right now, it still remains that the more $$$ that you throw at the models, the better of a LLM you will get — basically, we haven’t found the ceiling that money can’t fix yet.

So to borrow a thought from my $VST/$SNDK post above: is this time different? If it is, then we must be careful not to apply "pre-AI" frameworks to a post-AI world.

I guess we will have our answer soon, dictated by how Micron trades in the wake of this print.

Ofc if the market fades this print, then that’s 30 mins of my life spent typing this that I’m never getting back, and I will delete this name from my watchlist

Screw it, longed small position $CRWV @ $67.24

Stock is trading like default is certain? But hyperscalers will want to keep neoclouds around as they don’t want to onboard the GPU obsolescence risk themselves and hence seek to offload it to the neoclouds. I think some of the top-tier neoclouds will hence be kept alive by hook or by crook. Long r/r makes sense to me here

Per above, shorted more:

$DELL @ $128
$HPQ @ $23.6-$23.87
$QCOM @ $175.2

Sold covered calls for $93 strike on the $CRWV position — if it gets called it gets called!

Multi-modal models with the ability to create entire hours-long engaging movies from the ground up, supported by personal assistants with perfect, infinite memory.

A proof point of structural re-rating will occur when the market no longer punishes, but instead rewards, memory capex expansion. TBC

https://x.com/jonhernandezia/status/2001967472077918255?s=46

$MU $SNDK

Reshorted $CVNA @ $443.57. Index flow from S&P500 addition seems to have dried up

Longed some $BE @ $88 and $FSLR @ $284 over the past week. My picks for DCAI power plays

Added to $FSLR long @ $272

Also longed some $AG @ $17.13 and $USAS @ $5.82. Bit late to the silver party but I think there’s more gas in the tank, esp with US solar buildout being a tailwind.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to everyone! 🥳

We are down to the last few trading days of the year. Thank you for being here with me through all the Ws and Ls—I hope this channel provided some value to you. May everyone achieve their goals in 2026; the best is yet to come!

Reshorted some $CRDO @ $148.57 and $ALAB @ $167.54

And added to $INTC @ $36.34

Silver is ripping in the futures market, which is currently in extreme backwardation. I might be wrong given my generalist background, but there is significant chatter regarding silver on ‘FinTwit.’ While I would normally view this as a sign of a peak, I believe it could actually go higher than expected — though I’m not excluding short-term corrections.

Solar buildout —the marginal energy growth that can be quickly deployed for AI infrastructure— is driving silver demand for the first time in 25 years. Beyond speculative fervor, real industrial use cases are driving this shortage.

I bought a small physical silver position over the weekend to hodl, though my miners position remains 30x larger. Miners haven’t moved much despite the silver rally over the past month, likely because the market views this move as unsustainable. Contrary to that sentiment, I expect a higher mid-term range for the metal, and that should trigger a repricing for miners whose earnings power is heavily levered to silver prices.

As Trump said, everything is computer; AI is driving repricings in far-fetched markets.

Started a long position in $SLV @ $67.64

https://open.substack.com/pub/semianalysis/p/co-packaged-optics-cpo-book-scaling?r=28qms&utm_medium=ios

SemiAnalysis finally did a deep dive into Optics & CPO, with tickers for NVDA’s CPO supply chain hidden behind a paywall (spoiler: it’s probably $LITE)

Crazy open for the L/S port. Sold some 35 DTE 0.2-0.25 delta covered calls on INTC, MU, SNDK, SLV -- my way of taking small partial profits.

Didn’t sell too many SNDK/INTC calls tho as earnings are within the next 30 days, so don’t want to sell the calls into print.

Closed out 40% of $CVNA short at $400 for 10% gain

Shorted $MNDY @ $143.19

While it’s no surprise that SaaS has underperformed over the past year, I believe the market is still severely underestimating the threat to these companies. Traditional SaaS business models with multi-billions in market cap can be zeroed out overnight as the public begins experimenting with vibe-coding of their own apps with high-level AI like Claude Code. Why should I buy a license from you when I can vibe code a localized app suited for my niche purpose in 4 hours from simply typing in a prompt?

Since the marginal cost of creating a specialized UI or workflow is approaching zero — and the traditional barrier of entry of coding skills has been effectively removed by Claude— the best applications can now come from the most creative individuals, rather than the most well-funded engineering teams. It can come from ANYONE with an idea that doesn’t even need to be original! This introduces a massive wave of new competition.

Companies that are essentially "wrappers" around a process, lacking a proprietary data moat or a "liquidity" network effect like a 2-sided marketplace, face a serious existential threat. I’m not even joking, vibe coding sounds like such a meme, but the threat to these multi-billion-dollar companies is astronomical imo. And if these are the capabilities of Claude Code today, what in 2 years? 10 years?

While being zeroed out overnight may be an exaggeration, this is such a perfect structural short over the short to mid term.

One of the best P&L days for me ever - probably retraces some on Monday. Happy weekends!