Rebuilt my short positions over the course of the week — unplanned but mostly at better prices than when I closed it all.

Largest size below, smallest above. Avg price = cost basis, last price = current price.

$ORCL commentary dragging down the AI capex plays today.

$ALAB taught me that when a fundamental cornerstone of your long thesis changes, you should not only exit your longs, but also flip short.

That lesson came in handy with the $CRDO flip from long to short this week, with rumours of NVDA bringing forward their CPO adoption timeline.

So much of investing is making mistakes and learning from them — and that’s precisely what makes it so fun and dynamic.

https://x.com/arronwei3n/status/1998570417624322397?s=46

Nice beat and guide from $CIEN

Degen-ed some $ORCL short-dated calls for Dec 26 $197.5 Strike for $7.6 premium. Very small position that I already wrote off mentally.

Feels oversold, and seems like a good hedge if market turns bullish on OpenAI again.

Closed most of my shorts the past 2 days. I think the bear doom regarding AI is getting too much — it’s *probably* not over (yet).

Now riding unfettered into the long (pun intended) night

$VRT @ $157-$162
$CRWV @ $72-$77
$CRDO @ $143-$146
$NVDA @ $176
$CVNA @ $457-$460

Have a feeling that $MU print tonight will make or break the negative AI sentiment; expectations are very high though so it’s a tough call but I’m staying long a medium-sized position into the print.

I’m hopeful (faith is inversely correlated with the # of times that OAI/ORCL appears in headlines) that the $MU print can be the catalyst that shifts market sentiment about AI.

MS and many others are already drawing parallels between Micron’s surprise beat-and-raise and $NVDA’s "big bang" guidance raise in May 2023 —the event that effectively ignited the multi-year bull run for Nvidia and the wider AI complex. The similarities in the headlines are striking:

NVIDIA (May 2023): "NVIDIA SEES 2Q REV. $11.00B +/- 2%, EST. $7.18B"
Micron (Now): "Micron sees Q2 Adj Rev $18.3B–$19.1B (est. $14.38B)"

Nvidia's inflection point fundamentally expanded investors' vision of what the GPU TAM could become, fueled by insatiable AI compute demand.

If this is indeed the "big bang" quarter for Micron, it forcefully brings a pivotal question into the spotlight: should Micron— and the broader ecosystem of historically cyclical and commoditised industries like memory and optics —continue to be penalized due to their extreme cyclicality? If so, then $MU near-single-digit fwd P/E while growing EPS at near triple digits sequentially is justified.

If not, then the alternative is that these companies should be re-rated as critical AI enablers that allow the AI cycle to continue scaling non-linearly. After all, we may only be in the first innings of multi-modal models’ capabilities; it is impossible to predict what their memory and storage requirements will look like five years— or even twelve months—from now. Pre-training scaling law is also still intact, while test-time compute and chain of thought reinforcement learning have simultaneously expanded the boundaries of model training — in essence, models are still getting smarter.

Ultimately, this depends on one’s long-term view of AI’s utility and how long we take to get there. How much will SamA/Elon/the hyperscalers chase? How motivated are they? Because right now, it still remains that the more $$$ that you throw at the models, the better of a LLM you will get — basically, we haven’t found the ceiling that money can’t fix yet.

So to borrow a thought from my $VST/$SNDK post above: is this time different? If it is, then we must be careful not to apply "pre-AI" frameworks to a post-AI world.

I guess we will have our answer soon, dictated by how Micron trades in the wake of this print.

Ofc if the market fades this print, then that’s 30 mins of my life spent typing this that I’m never getting back, and I will delete this name from my watchlist

Screw it, longed small position $CRWV @ $67.24

Stock is trading like default is certain? But hyperscalers will want to keep neoclouds around as they don’t want to onboard the GPU obsolescence risk themselves and hence seek to offload it to the neoclouds. I think some of the top-tier neoclouds will hence be kept alive by hook or by crook. Long r/r makes sense to me here

Per above, shorted more:

$DELL @ $128
$HPQ @ $23.6-$23.87
$QCOM @ $175.2

Sold covered calls for $93 strike on the $CRWV position — if it gets called it gets called!

Multi-modal models with the ability to create entire hours-long engaging movies from the ground up, supported by personal assistants with perfect, infinite memory.

A proof point of structural re-rating will occur when the market no longer punishes, but instead rewards, memory capex expansion. TBC

https://x.com/jonhernandezia/status/2001967472077918255?s=46

$MU $SNDK

Reshorted $CVNA @ $443.57. Index flow from S&P500 addition seems to have dried up

Longed some $BE @ $88 and $FSLR @ $284 over the past week. My picks for DCAI power plays

Added to $FSLR long @ $272

Also longed some $AG @ $17.13 and $USAS @ $5.82. Bit late to the silver party but I think there’s more gas in the tank, esp with US solar buildout being a tailwind.

Merry Christmas and happy holidays to everyone! 🥳

We are down to the last few trading days of the year. Thank you for being here with me through all the Ws and Ls—I hope this channel provided some value to you. May everyone achieve their goals in 2026; the best is yet to come!

Reshorted some $CRDO @ $148.57 and $ALAB @ $167.54