$SNDK added to S&P500, +9% AH

The timing on this… 🤗

Also part of the reason why we are long $LITE. GOOG TPUs are so power efficient in part because they employ OCS — supplied by LITE.

Re-shorted $CRWV @ $72.77 after closing the short @ $70 last week. Will scale this up to be one of my larger shorts, such as $DELL $PSTG $QCOM.

Realized months ago when I was researching CRWV as a long idea, that a large portion of its moat comes from its relationship with $NVDA, which provides CoreWeave with first-priority to its GPUs. I was already bearish on neoclouds as a short hedge, but if the industry also starts to accept ex-NVDA GPUs for its chips, then it seems like an additional headwind for CRWV.

Going well so far. Also liking the Monday and more imptly, Tuesday’s price action. For the past 2 months, the Monday pump has been faded hard by the rest of the week.

That was also attempted last night but enough buyers stepped in to save the close.

$DELL printed an EPS beat, with revenue acceleration driven by a strong uptick in server orders. Stock is trading +4% in the AH.

Appears that the memory cost inflation has not hit them yet — likely because of their existing inventory on hand (readthrough from $HPQ). Moving forward, mgmt is basically saying that they will pass down cost inflation to customers, implying that they will try and protect margins. Maybe some inflation pass-through happens, but I doubt their ability to fully pass-through, given that most of their customers are enterprises.

$HPQ on the other hand touched on the pressure that memory inflation has on margins, and has guided to weaker than expected earnings in 2H25 through FY26, alongside job cuts for cost savings. Stock is down -5% AH.

$HPQ: “Now let me address the trend of rising memory costs and its implications for our business. Memory costs are currently 15% to 18% of the cost of a typical PC. And while an increase was expected, its rate has accelerated in the last few weeks…… For the second half of the year, we expect Personal Systems margins to be impacted. Therefore, we are taking a prudent approach to our guide while implementing aggressive actions to mitigate this.“

Given that HPQ read-through is still supporting the thesis, I will wait a qtr more for the short trade to play out on $DELL. We’re currently still +5% in profit on the short even after the move post-print. By the next qtr the memory inflation should start to show up in the company’s P&L. By then we will know if our thesis is right, or if Dell’s mgmt has managed to offset the cost inflation through either LTAs negotiated early (doubt) or by cost passthrough (doubt).

Haven’t spoken much about $INTC recently as there’s not many headlines, but I remain highly convicted in the stock with it being my largest position by far.

The talent drain from $TSM will continue as insiders weigh their long-term careers against the consequences of Taiwan <> China. With the U.S. Govt standing as $INTC backing, TSMC and Taiwan’s retaliatory power is also limited.

Hashing out the high stakes involved and the implications for industries that are critical to national security — both now and into the future, Intel MUST work.

Small history tidbit below.

https://x.com/citrini7/status/1994251451770507489?s=46

Added 10% more $INTC @ $35-$38 over the past week

Added more $MU @ $230-$237

Current longs & sizing:

INTC > LITE = CIEN > MU = SNDK > LAM = AMAT > APP

Intel expected to begin shipping Apple’s lowest-end M processor as early as 2027

Consider OP to be reliable on Apple supply chain info. If true, it’s an upside to my base expectations. I thought the first 18AP customer, if any, would be a low-end high volume client like $QCOM or MediaTek. Winning Apple would really help the bull case and is a major vote of confidence. Sputnik moment soon.

$INTC

https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/1994422001952555318?s=46

We’re so back

Inb4 it’s so over next week

Rumours alone of winning the production of a customer's lowest-end chips — using 18AP, and not even 14A — sent INTC +10%.

It’s not unrealistic to think that the official confirmation of winning a customer for 14A could send Intel +30%.

If even $MSTR and Saylor are thinking about finally caving, then the wider DAT ecosystem is cooked. If Saylor starts dumping, it will be a race to the bottom.

It is also telling that MSTR is down 6% despite this announcement. I think the market perceives Saylor to own too much of the supply to call it quits now. If he dumps even 1 BTC, everyone else starts dumping—and he can bid farewell to his dream of exiting his remaining 649,000 BTC. Damned if I do, damned if I don’t situation

Sputnik moment

Added more longs:
SNDK @ $194
$LITE @ $293
$CRDO @ $180