Closed $SNDK and $MU shorts for 8-10% gains

If the market can reclaim green by open, after the pre-market panic right now, I would be much more constructive on the bull case. Signals capitulation and changing of hands to me.

Kind of the opposite of fading the NVDA gap up

Closed $IREN & $CRWV shorts earlier for 10-15% gain

So far so good. Let’s not jinx it.

Also added more $LITE $AMAT & $COHR earlier too

Very preliminary thoughts, but I think a good framework to be long/short the AI “bubble” over the coming months could be:

Long Google and TPU related stuff
Short OpenAI, NVDA and GPU related stuff

Back in $MU long @ $211

This was created by Google’s Nano Banana Pro. One of the reasons for re-entering $MU long

Trimmed 40% $COHR @ $150 to enter fresh $CIEN long @ $186.5, forming the optics basket alongside $LITE and $COHR.

Optics is clearly the next major bottleneck in scaling AI training and inference, as GPU/TPU clusters get larger and DCs get further apart — all while latency and bandwidth requirements rise.

Trimmed 30% of $MU and allocated more % of portfolio to re-enter $SNDK long @ $225.5. Don’t think the memory cycle is over yet on second thoughts, and SanDisk is one of the highest beta plays.

So far we have traded the memory stocks quite well, hoping it continues.

$SNDK added to S&P500, +9% AH

The timing on this… 🤗

Also part of the reason why we are long $LITE. GOOG TPUs are so power efficient in part because they employ OCS — supplied by LITE.

Re-shorted $CRWV @ $72.77 after closing the short @ $70 last week. Will scale this up to be one of my larger shorts, such as $DELL $PSTG $QCOM.

Realized months ago when I was researching CRWV as a long idea, that a large portion of its moat comes from its relationship with $NVDA, which provides CoreWeave with first-priority to its GPUs. I was already bearish on neoclouds as a short hedge, but if the industry also starts to accept ex-NVDA GPUs for its chips, then it seems like an additional headwind for CRWV.

Going well so far. Also liking the Monday and more imptly, Tuesday’s price action. For the past 2 months, the Monday pump has been faded hard by the rest of the week.

That was also attempted last night but enough buyers stepped in to save the close.

$DELL printed an EPS beat, with revenue acceleration driven by a strong uptick in server orders. Stock is trading +4% in the AH.

Appears that the memory cost inflation has not hit them yet — likely because of their existing inventory on hand (readthrough from $HPQ). Moving forward, mgmt is basically saying that they will pass down cost inflation to customers, implying that they will try and protect margins. Maybe some inflation pass-through happens, but I doubt their ability to fully pass-through, given that most of their customers are enterprises.

$HPQ on the other hand touched on the pressure that memory inflation has on margins, and has guided to weaker than expected earnings in 2H25 through FY26, alongside job cuts for cost savings. Stock is down -5% AH.

$HPQ: “Now let me address the trend of rising memory costs and its implications for our business. Memory costs are currently 15% to 18% of the cost of a typical PC. And while an increase was expected, its rate has accelerated in the last few weeks…… For the second half of the year, we expect Personal Systems margins to be impacted. Therefore, we are taking a prudent approach to our guide while implementing aggressive actions to mitigate this.“

Given that HPQ read-through is still supporting the thesis, I will wait a qtr more for the short trade to play out on $DELL. We’re currently still +5% in profit on the short even after the move post-print. By the next qtr the memory inflation should start to show up in the company’s P&L. By then we will know if our thesis is right, or if Dell’s mgmt has managed to offset the cost inflation through either LTAs negotiated early (doubt) or by cost passthrough (doubt).

Haven’t spoken much about $INTC recently as there’s not many headlines, but I remain highly convicted in the stock with it being my largest position by far.

The talent drain from $TSM will continue as insiders weigh their long-term careers against the consequences of Taiwan <> China. With the U.S. Govt standing as $INTC backing, TSMC and Taiwan’s retaliatory power is also limited.

Hashing out the high stakes involved and the implications for industries that are critical to national security — both now and into the future, Intel MUST work.

Small history tidbit below.

https://x.com/citrini7/status/1994251451770507489?s=46

Added 10% more $INTC @ $35-$38 over the past week

Added more $MU @ $230-$237

Current longs & sizing:

INTC > LITE = CIEN > MU = SNDK > LAM = AMAT > APP