Pivot Point Capital
Shorted NVDA and neoclouds’ spike. Fading the rally as explained above. Mid-size positions, leaving some ammo to add just in case of further spikes $CIFR @ $16.93 $IREN @ $52.42 $CRWV @ $80.02 $NVDA @ $191.54
Updated short basket. Avg price is entry price, last is current price. Largest shorts at the bottom.
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Pivot Point Capital
Updated short basket. Avg price is entry price, last is current price. Largest shorts at the bottom.
TPed on 35% of the new shorts today. Have a feeling we might bounce
CIFR IREN CRWV SNDK MU
CIFR IREN CRWV SNDK MU
Pivot Point Capital
TPed on 35% of the new shorts today. Have a feeling we might bounce CIFR IREN CRWV SNDK MU
Wow, went to sleep after taking partial profits on the shorts and woke up to a sea of red.
Bad news is market is still really weak, but good news is our core longs (INTC AMAT LRCX COHR LITE FIX 9988.HK) are starting to look very reasonably priced.
I’m out of all low caps except a few Chinese moonshots, and mostly in high conviction forward-looking plays, so I think (and hope) ultimately we will be alright!
Bad news is market is still really weak, but good news is our core longs (INTC AMAT LRCX COHR LITE FIX 9988.HK) are starting to look very reasonably priced.
I’m out of all low caps except a few Chinese moonshots, and mostly in high conviction forward-looking plays, so I think (and hope) ultimately we will be alright!
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Pivot Point Capital
Happening quicker than I thought.. the first order thinking is probably to buy <1x mNAV companies with "decent" mgmt. But the second order thinking is whether this would instead create a negative feedback loop? Just like how the positive flywheel worked…
$BMNR starting to look attractive as a trade.. maybe just a bit more capitulation.
Thinking more on this subject, I think point 3) above is wrong. In fact, I want mgmt to absolutely HATE magic internet money, so that they will be more likely to dump the coins to buyback the stock when the company is trading at a discount to NAV.
I think there will be a race to dump the coins soon. Again, prisoner dilemma at work here: the last ones to dump the coins will have to sell at the lowest price. Tom Lee is an intelligent tradfi guy, I think he will cave first.
Thinking more on this subject, I think point 3) above is wrong. In fact, I want mgmt to absolutely HATE magic internet money, so that they will be more likely to dump the coins to buyback the stock when the company is trading at a discount to NAV.
I think there will be a race to dump the coins soon. Again, prisoner dilemma at work here: the last ones to dump the coins will have to sell at the lowest price. Tom Lee is an intelligent tradfi guy, I think he will cave first.
Pivot Point Capital
$BMNR starting to look attractive as a trade.. maybe just a bit more capitulation. Thinking more on this subject, I think point 3) above is wrong. In fact, I want mgmt to absolutely HATE magic internet money, so that they will be more likely to dump the…
I guess counterpoint is that they own too much of the ETH supply to signal a shift to dump the coins without immediately crashing the market.. leaving them unable to exit their remaining holdings. Doesn’t help that the blockchain is completely transparent.
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Pivot Point Capital
Wow, went to sleep after taking partial profits on the shorts and woke up to a sea of red. Bad news is market is still really weak, but good news is our core longs (INTC AMAT LRCX COHR LITE FIX 9988.HK) are starting to look very reasonably priced. I’m out…
Closed $SNDK and $MU shorts for 8-10% gains
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Pivot Point Capital
$NVDA saved the day (for now) with a strong print that met all buyside bogey numbers. So far, every bullish news have been sold into — so how long this mini rally lasts will tell us a lot about the strength of this market. Though I am still not convinced…
If the market can reclaim green by open, after the pre-market panic right now, I would be much more constructive on the bull case. Signals capitulation and changing of hands to me.
Kind of the opposite of fading the NVDA gap up
Kind of the opposite of fading the NVDA gap up
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Pivot Point Capital
TPed on 35% of the new shorts today. Have a feeling we might bounce CIFR IREN CRWV SNDK MU
Closed $IREN & $CRWV shorts earlier for 10-15% gain
Pivot Point Capital
Closed $IREN & $CRWV shorts earlier for 10-15% gain
So far so good. Let’s not jinx it.
Also added more $LITE $AMAT & $COHR earlier too
Also added more $LITE $AMAT & $COHR earlier too
Very preliminary thoughts, but I think a good framework to be long/short the AI “bubble” over the coming months could be:
Long Google and TPU related stuff
Short OpenAI, NVDA and GPU related stuff
Long Google and TPU related stuff
Short OpenAI, NVDA and GPU related stuff
Pivot Point Capital
Back in $MU long @ $211
This was created by Google’s Nano Banana Pro. One of the reasons for re-entering $MU long
Pivot Point Capital
Added $COHR @ $159
Trimmed 40% $COHR @ $150 to enter fresh $CIEN long @ $186.5, forming the optics basket alongside $LITE and $COHR.
Optics is clearly the next major bottleneck in scaling AI training and inference, as GPU/TPU clusters get larger and DCs get further apart — all while latency and bandwidth requirements rise.
Optics is clearly the next major bottleneck in scaling AI training and inference, as GPU/TPU clusters get larger and DCs get further apart — all while latency and bandwidth requirements rise.
Pivot Point Capital
This was created by Google’s Nano Banana Pro. One of the reasons for re-entering $MU long
Trimmed 30% of $MU and allocated more % of portfolio to re-enter $SNDK long @ $225.5. Don’t think the memory cycle is over yet on second thoughts, and SanDisk is one of the highest beta plays.
So far we have traded the memory stocks quite well, hoping it continues.
So far we have traded the memory stocks quite well, hoping it continues.
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The semi-passive long-only portfolio returned +1.5% over the past month, vs SPY +0.3% and NQ -1.3%. Compounded returns since 4 Dec 2024 stand at +116.8%, vs SPY +10.4% and NQ +10.2%. Not too bad a performance for the past few weeks, mostly carried by memory.
The small caps basket have been a huge drag on the overall portfolio, and I think the takeaway going forward is to limit the moonshots and focus only on high-conviction plays, especially in the next phase of the AI "bubble". Making a few changes to include 1) upstream memory beneficiaries, 2) optics players, and 3) META.
The small caps basket have been a huge drag on the overall portfolio, and I think the takeaway going forward is to limit the moonshots and focus only on high-conviction plays, especially in the next phase of the AI "bubble". Making a few changes to include 1) upstream memory beneficiaries, 2) optics players, and 3) META.
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Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed 30% of $MU and allocated more % of portfolio to re-enter $SNDK long @ $225.5. Don’t think the memory cycle is over yet on second thoughts, and SanDisk is one of the highest beta plays. So far we have traded the memory stocks quite well, hoping it…
$SNDK added to S&P500, +9% AH
The timing on this… 🤗
The timing on this… 🤗
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Pivot Point Capital
Very preliminary thoughts, but I think a good framework to be long/short the AI “bubble” over the coming months could be: Long Google and TPU related stuff Short OpenAI, NVDA and GPU related stuff
Also part of the reason why we are long $LITE. GOOG TPUs are so power efficient in part because they employ OCS — supplied by LITE.
Pivot Point Capital
Closed $IREN & $CRWV shorts earlier for 10-15% gain
Re-shorted $CRWV @ $72.77 after closing the short @ $70 last week. Will scale this up to be one of my larger shorts, such as $DELL $PSTG $QCOM.
Realized months ago when I was researching CRWV as a long idea, that a large portion of its moat comes from its relationship with $NVDA, which provides CoreWeave with first-priority to its GPUs. I was already bearish on neoclouds as a short hedge, but if the industry also starts to accept ex-NVDA GPUs for its chips, then it seems like an additional headwind for CRWV.
Realized months ago when I was researching CRWV as a long idea, that a large portion of its moat comes from its relationship with $NVDA, which provides CoreWeave with first-priority to its GPUs. I was already bearish on neoclouds as a short hedge, but if the industry also starts to accept ex-NVDA GPUs for its chips, then it seems like an additional headwind for CRWV.
Pivot Point Capital
If the market can reclaim green by open, after the pre-market panic right now, I would be much more constructive on the bull case. Signals capitulation and changing of hands to me. Kind of the opposite of fading the NVDA gap up
Going well so far. Also liking the Monday and more imptly, Tuesday’s price action. For the past 2 months, the Monday pump has been faded hard by the rest of the week.
That was also attempted last night but enough buyers stepped in to save the close.
That was also attempted last night but enough buyers stepped in to save the close.