Pretty interesting. The Big Short is one of my favourite movies. Not agreeing with Michael Burry’s views (for now) but the parallels here for him are uncanny.

https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/1988823273287635403?s=46

Closed all remaining $SNDK @ $252-$257, bought more $MU @ $242

$MU is my only memory position now, with a little bit of $HY9H

Seems like Kioxia’s poor print was because they signed a Long Term Agreement with AAPL right before NAND spot prices went ballistic, causing them to not benefit from rising memory prices.

While it might not have been public information in this case, it’s a good example of the importance of examining contract structures of B2B businesses.

Closed all remaining $CRCL short @ $81.5 for +33% gain on the entire position. Borrow fees spiked to >40% p.a. yesterday, too high to remain short

MS downgrades DELL to UW from OW, cuts TP from $144 to $110

MS note below is in line with our thesis from a week ago. Memory is 40% of the BOM of traditional servers and 25% of PCs.

Hardware OEM/ODMs face growing risk of margin pressure as the memory supercycle intensifies amidst a tepid hardware demand backdrop. Secular opps in Gen Al/Data Proliferation remain in-place but cyclical headwinds are growing. We're stepping to the sidelines on a number of OEM's as a result.

Key Takeaways
• We are in an unprecedented memory cycle, with spot NAND and DRAM prices — key components in hardware devices - up 50% and 300% in the last 6 months.
• History tells us these cyclical memory supercycles begin to play out via gross margin and multiple compression 6+ months after costs first increase.
• We model Global OEM/ODM gross margins down a median 60bps Y/Y, in 2026 vs. Street up ~10bps Y/Y. MSe now 11% below CY26 Consensus EPS across coverage.
• Global PC and Server (more DRAM) OEMs/ODMs more at risk than Storage OEMs (more
NAND), with Dell, Lenovo and Asustek most 'at-risk
= Downgrading DELL, HPQ, Asustek, and Pegatron to Underweight, HPE, Lenovo, and Giga-byte to Equal-weight.

Canary in the mine

Not yet short btw -- didn’t want to short at the macro bottom last week. Also picking pennies but want to wait to see if there’s a post-print spike for entry

Shorted $QCOM too. Similar thesis to $DELL and $PSTG

Think either the sales or the margins of low/middle-end smartphones are going to get squashed.

@ $171.71

Added $FIX long @ $977 and will continue to add on this correction

From what I gathered on recent podcasts and events, MEP is likely an overlooked bottleneck in the power/DC construction narrative. It takes up to 7 years to train an apprentice to become well-versed in these fields, so supply will likely remain tight.

Closed all $COIN short @ $267 for 15% gain

Not one to call bottom but my gut feel is that this has the makings of one, especially w all the doomposting

Closed 40% of PLTR short @ $168 for 10% gain

$NVDA saved the day (for now) with a strong print that met all buyside bogey numbers. So far, every bullish news have been sold into — so how long this mini rally lasts will tell us a lot about the strength of this market.

Though I am still not convinced that there hasn’t been a massive pull forward of expectations from NVDA GTC that is already priced into the stock price today. I still think competitive pressures and future growth are not being fairly discounted by the market.

My overall view however is that the AI buildout (and thus “bubble”) will continue, but more so in an idiosyncratic way where fundamentals matter more than the past 3 years. So honestly I would prefer not to short AI-related names, but to hedge the case where I am wrong and that there is a bubble, I still lean relatively bearish on NVDA, and neoclouds — and will look to short these on rallies.

Exited 80% of $MU long from $224.5 to $232.

While memory supply is likely to remain tight throughout 2026 and probably also 2027, I think the tight supply is going to be a problem soon.

You can think of this as a classic prisoner’s dilemma, where the first party to betray the “agreement” gets all the benefits and the last party suffers.

Yes while memory makers are experiencing supernormal profitability now due to sky-high prices, their growth is also limited due to sold-out supply.

So far, the memory makers have moved in tandem at least in public by not expanding supply. However, there will definitely be pressures growing, from both internal and external, to expand capacity to capture the excess demand, at abnormal prices.

However, I think it is inevitable that the prisoner’s dilemma is eventually broken by a few greedy players that will expand their capacity to capture all the excess for themselves. YTMC and MU have already hinted at this. This will then spur on an arms race for capacity expansion — which will ironically be the death knell for the memory supercycle.

The counterpoint here is that memory might not be as cyclical as previous cycles, due to explosion in AI demand, and thus capacity expansion will not matter as much. However, this needs to be proven out first before we decide on being massively long memory again as I don’t want to jump to the conclusion that “this time is different”.

Markets are forward looking, so just like how the share price of memory makers started moving up even before memory (DRAM, NAND) spot prices moved up, the share prices will stall even before any official announcement of capex expansion or decline in memory spot prices. Hence I believe this is the reason for the weakness in the memory prices these past few weeks despite the bullish news.

So what are we long instead? I have shifted memory exposure to $LRCX @ $147.5, $AMAT @ $230, $KLAC @ $1149. These are semicap players that will benefit from capacity expansion from memory makers, so also an indirect exposure to the growing importance of memory - but one that should outperform in the coming months.

Shorted $MU @ $225 and $SNDK @ $227

“SK Hynix plans to ramp production of its 1c DRAM about 8x in 2026 as AI demand shifts from pure model training to large scale inferencing.”

And the race to the bottom begins

Shorted NVDA and neoclouds’ spike. Fading the rally as explained above. Mid-size positions, leaving some ammo to add just in case of further spikes

$CIFR @ $16.93
$IREN @ $52.42
$CRWV @ $80.02
$NVDA @ $191.54

Updated short basket. Avg price is entry price, last is current price. Largest shorts at the bottom.

TPed on 35% of the new shorts today. Have a feeling we might bounce

CIFR IREN CRWV SNDK MU

Wow, went to sleep after taking partial profits on the shorts and woke up to a sea of red.

Bad news is market is still really weak, but good news is our core longs (INTC AMAT LRCX COHR LITE FIX 9988.HK) are starting to look very reasonably priced.

I’m out of all low caps except a few Chinese moonshots, and mostly in high conviction forward-looking plays, so I think (and hope) ultimately we will be alright!

$BMNR starting to look attractive as a trade.. maybe just a bit more capitulation.

Thinking more on this subject, I think point 3) above is wrong. In fact, I want mgmt to absolutely HATE magic internet money, so that they will be more likely to dump the coins to buyback the stock when the company is trading at a discount to NAV.

I think there will be a race to dump the coins soon. Again, prisoner dilemma at work here: the last ones to dump the coins will have to sell at the lowest price. Tom Lee is an intelligent tradfi guy, I think he will cave first.