Added more $MU @ $212-$215

Trimmed another 15% off $SNDK @ $179… been regretting every trim so far but it’s at 30+ p/e so can’t complain. What a rally. Added more to $MU with the alloc

The surge in memory prices has been so large that Xiaomi is warning it could lead to higher end prices for their smartphones.

But what if every consumer device — from smartphones to PCs — has to undergo a step-function upgrade to handle the growing output size of AI in the future? We’re already seeing early signs of that with Apple’s iPhone 17, where the minimum storage jumped from 128 GB to 256 GB.

And what if text was only the first, and easiest, output of AI that will be virally adopted by society? Music, videos, and even entire movies.. could be orders of magnitude larger. The quality of these formats may seem underwhelming now, but markets are forward-looking, pricing in the future into the present. That’s why this game is so exhilarating!

$MU $SNDK

$SNDK now trading at 30x NTM P/E in pre-market. Investors who refused to adapt to new frameworks and continued treating the company as a commodity NAND business — without recognizing the inflection in demand driven by AI — may have shorted it at 20 p/e (~2x of avg hist. levels) and been blown out by now.

Not saying to buy it here, but there’s a lesson in this as we move through this extraordinary AI bubble: are ‘commoditized’ businesses really that commoditized when the capacity of entire industries is needed to support the buildout? Would company-specific factors (market share gains/losses, pricing power, product tech etc) matter as much in the face of such strong industry tailwinds? Idk, and I have a strong feeling there will be many more examples of such going forward.

I also think there's a slight advantage to being inexperienced and a generalist here, especially in highly cyclical industries: Fresh eyes have no past trauma.

Stanley Druckenmiller spoke about this on the only reason why he was made Director of Research at mid-20s, only 1.5 yrs into his career.

"Because, for the same reason they send 18-year-olds to war. You’re too dumb, too young, and too inexperienced not to know to charge. We around here have been in a bear market since 1968 … So I need a young, inexperienced guy (that knows how to charge recklessly into the bull)"

"So, then right after he leaves, … I’m 25 (really 26) … I don’t have any experience … The list I proposed went up 100%. … And then at 26 years old they made me chief investment officer of the whole place. … So the reason I say there was a lot of luck involved is because it was my youth and it was my inexperience, and I was ready to charge.”

re China<> US trade deal; there's been positive resolution over the weekend.

China to delay RE ban by 1 year (interesting that it's framed as a temporary halt), and continue substantial exports of US soybean (so back to a yr ago levels?).

I am very interested to know what China is getting out of it — would expect China to get more out of the deal coming into it from a position of strength. It would be really funny if China ends up getting a larger decrease in tariffs compared to announced figures on Liberation Day, vs Japan/SK/allies, when the much of the goal of Liberation Day was to halt China's advance.

Despite the temporary relief in trade tensions, I only expect China's self-sufficiency efforts to intensify. This was also alluded to in their Fourth Plenum goals. Everyone knows that the relief is only a tactical floor, and undercurrents still remain and can erupt again anytime. Hence, I continue to be very bullish on our China picks. Sadly though, the best China picks are not accessible to non-institutional foreigners.

Fully out of $SNDK @ $182-$185

Great run!

Added to $MU @ ~$220 — my only memory pos now

Trimmed some $APP @ $636 for +13%

Added to $U @ $38 - $38.5. Game plan is to buy accelerating top lines, which obviously is much harder for APP vs U.

Still like APP and have a sizable position in it — but APP is now in the big boys’ league with their e-comm expansion and will have to prove themselves worthy there for the market to be willing to pay a premium for their growth. Bar is just lower for U to clear.

Happening quicker than I thought.. the first order thinking is probably to buy <1x mNAV companies with "decent" mgmt.

But the second order thinking is whether this would instead create a negative feedback loop?

Just like how the positive flywheel worked back then, but the opposite effect. Positive flywheel: High mNAV DATs buys crypto > crypto price goes up > mNAV of DATs goes up > DATs get more purchasing power > buys crypto > crypto price goes up > so on and so forth..

Instead this time its: low mNAV DATs sell crypto and buy back stock > mNAV discount slightly compresses, but crypto price goes down > treasury worth less > stock price goes down > mNAV perpetually sub 1x.

Anyway, guess my base criteria for this trade:
1) at least 0.6x mNAV discount — need a huge margin of safety as my base case is for DATs to perpetually trade sub 1x mNAV

2) only BTC treasuries

3) no "tourist" DATs that merely pivoted without conviction — I want the mgmt to be more hardcore believers in magic internet money than me.

$DNKG -4% on news of Truth Social expanding into prediction markets

While our shorts are done mostly to hedge/fund longs, always nice to see when one works out straight from the get go.

Recent flows on $INTC make me think some news might be about to drop. Very large dark pool prints and heavy call buying over the past few days.

Also, LBT was talking to Saudi ministers recently and was a keynote speaker at a Middle East event today.. Also the US–Japan $490bn investment deal today..

Tin-foil hat take here, but it does feel like something’s brewing.

Last time I felt this way was 17th Sept. Whole market was red and $INTC was holding strong and breaking the $25 range. Next day $NVDA invested $5bn. Quite similar to today.

Anyway just thinking out loud. Could be nothin. No trades to be done anyway as it’s a LT pos for me.

Maybe market is just excited about $NVDA GTC — starting now. Let’s see

Oof, $DKNG can’t catch a break. Pressed the short @ $31.28

Rebought 80% of my original $SNDK long position at $171.31 ahead of $STX earnings last night.

Expected a beat from STX, given how the rest of the AI infrastructure names have performed so far this Q3.

SK Hynix also in with very positive commentary for memory

“DRAM and NAND customers are secured for the entire of 2026”

“… supply expected to remain relatively tight through 2027”

Good print for $TTMI with double beats coming in above the high-end of guidance. Low end of Q4'25 guide also above consensus. Stock +7% AH to $63.53. Actually surprised stock is not up more; may have been priced in by buy-side or possibly because the stock is very under-covered.

DC revenue was a key driver for rev in this quarter, inflecting higher at +45% y/y. In line with positive readthroughs from hyperscalers' earnings which indicated further acceleration in capex (supply constraints flagged by MSFT and GOOG!! META reports that they are "AI-compute starved"). Another positive is a shift towards AI accelerators and a strong push by GOOG for their TPUs; inline with our custom silicon thesis. A&D segment continues to be strong too, not much worries there.

There's also a very clear margin expansion story here which I think may be underappreciated by the market — which still perceives the company as a low-end commoditised PCB manufacturer. Q3 adj EBIT% at 12.3% is already higher than the midpoint of their LT target set in their 2023 analyst day. The company has been pushing aggressively into high-growth/margin sectors like high-end DCAI/networking and complex systems extending beyond PCB for A&D, and divesting low margin segments like mobile PCB. As the only high-end PCB manufacturer based in US, their NA factories allow them to provide turnkey high-end PCB with short lead times for hyperscalers that want to design custom silicon — AKA "premium revenue" with 1.5x - 2x ASP, which directly flows through to margins.

Forgot to mention but shorted $CVNA @ $362.92 over the past 2 days. Mainly just fading the mean reversion after the regional banks and auto-loans hoo-ha.

Stock is down -9% AH after their print; strong beat on sales but EBITDA% shockingly decelerated — probably what lead to the sell-off. Will dive in deeper later.

Current short basket includes $FIVE @ ~$145 avg, $CAVA @ ~$64.5 avg, $CRCL @ ~$127 avg, $SHAK @ $92.31 avg, $DKNG @ $33.9 avg, $CVNA @ $362.92 avg, $COIN @ $347 avg.

Solid print for $GOOG -- capex guide revised upwards, but that's fine as cloud backlog +46% SEQUENTIALLY! GOOG can continue spending as long as enterprise AI demand keeps up. Gemini MAUs also crossed 650mn, quite the exponential spike from Jul's 450mn. AI workload demand is just off the charts. Market is finally pricing GOOG as a dominant full-stack AI provider. As a bonus Youtube and Search also resilient, not bad! RIP GOOG bears

$CMG -17% in pre-market after warning that a large % of their consumers — specifically 25-35yo & consumers w HHI <$100k — are pulling back spend because of economy concerns. In line with our parallel economy thesis; S&P500 new highs, and yet consumers suffer.

Honestly don’t see how “premium” fast casual players like $SHAK and $CAVA can work here, given the overlap in demographics and pull back in spend. What more at such lofty valuations..? 58x/108x NTM p/e for SHAK and CAVA respectively.. Restaurants are known to have high operating leverage but that works both ways!

Speaking from my tastebuds, CAVA is basically a worse-tasting yet pricier CMG.. SHAK is actually nice but again, who wants to pay $20 for a burger set in this climate?

SHAK reports later, CAVA next week.

Added $CORZ @ from $20.25-$20.96 last night as shareholders voted and rejected CoreWeave’s acquisition offer for Core Scientific.

Closing $CRCL short @ $125 (+1% gain)

Still remain bearish on the company but borrow fees is just too expensive to keep the short on for long.