Pivot Point Capital
912 subscribers
243 photos
2 videos
107 links
*WILL NEVER ASK YOU FOR FUNDS*

Generalist, mostly long, rarely short. Occasionally a lover of unloved assets. Unedited messages.
Download Telegram
Added new $TTMI long @ $58.16

High-end PCB manufacturer; levered pure-play on GOOG <> Anthropic TPU deal + proliferation of custom silicon. Also has restoring tailwinds.
Pivot Point Capital
GIF
Revenue: $13.65B (Est. $13.14B); +3% YoY
Adj EPS: $0.23 (Est. $0.01)
Adj Gross Margin: 40.0% (Est. 36.1%); +22 pts YoY
Adj Oper Margin: 11.2% (Est. 3.07%); +29 pts YoY

Beat on all counts. Back to profitability and positive EPS. GM% particularly pleasant. Helps the market to believe in Intel’s path back to a 50% blended GM. Pat Gelsinger’s hallmark long-term target. And all this achieved without any major external foundry customers yet. How high can GM% go when one finally comes on board?

Now attention on capex guide for 2026 and 18A/14A commentary.

$INTC
❤5👍1🔥1
Pivot Point Capital
Wow very good stuff from DCAI server demand: “some DC customers are beginning to ask about longer term strategic supply agreements to support their business goals.”
Btw, $INTC comments about DCAI server demand being much stronger than expected is also bullish for DRAM/NAND memory players. May add more $MU later.
❤1👍1
Pivot Point Capital
Added $SHAK short @ $92.31 Same logic as $CAVA - want to be short on high-income consumer spending. Looking for more idiosyncratic/low beta short ideas that are focused on weak fundamentals/structural decline/mgmt issues/overvaluation. Avoiding high-beta…
Shorted $DNKG @ $34.73, adding this to the short basket.

Who would gamble on sports when the stock market is a much more liquid and volatile casino? Believe crypto is suffering from the same above effect. Plus there’s also prediction markets taking off, which basically is able to emulate all sorts of betting + more
Pivot Point Capital
Man, $SNDK is an absolute monster. Trimmed 25% @ $161 (+40% from initial entry @ $114.67) to raise ammo in case INTC bombs.
Trimmed another 15% off $SNDK @ $179… been regretting every trim so far but it’s at 30+ p/e so can’t complain. What a rally. Added more to $MU with the alloc
Pivot Point Capital
$MU and $SNDK crossed ATH again last night, with $MU closing @ $208.75 and $SNDK @ $149.64, +23.8% and +30.5% respectively from when we first went long. Meta also announced yesterday at OCP that they were prioritizing QLC NAND adoption in its data centers…
The surge in memory prices has been so large that Xiaomi is warning it could lead to higher end prices for their smartphones.

But what if every consumer device — from smartphones to PCs — has to undergo a step-function upgrade to handle the growing output size of AI in the future? We’re already seeing early signs of that with Apple’s iPhone 17, where the minimum storage jumped from 128 GB to 256 GB.

And what if text was only the first, and easiest, output of AI that will be virally adopted by society? Music, videos, and even entire movies.. could be orders of magnitude larger. The quality of these formats may seem underwhelming now, but markets are forward-looking, pricing in the future into the present. That’s why this game is so exhilarating!

$MU $SNDK
❤1
Pivot Point Capital
Storage/memory companies today reminds me of utility companies like $VST a year ago: a sector that was historically assigned low multiples, then reshaped by a “big bang” demand shock. Pre–big bang investors that refuse to adapt to the new reality found it…
$SNDK now trading at 30x NTM P/E in pre-market. Investors who refused to adapt to new frameworks and continued treating the company as a commodity NAND business — without recognizing the inflection in demand driven by AI — may have shorted it at 20 p/e (~2x of avg hist. levels) and been blown out by now.

Not saying to buy it here, but there’s a lesson in this as we move through this extraordinary AI bubble: are ‘commoditized’ businesses really that commoditized when the capacity of entire industries is needed to support the buildout? Would company-specific factors (market share gains/losses, pricing power, product tech etc) matter as much in the face of such strong industry tailwinds? Idk, and I have a strong feeling there will be many more examples of such going forward.

I also think there's a slight advantage to being inexperienced and a generalist here, especially in highly cyclical industries: Fresh eyes have no past trauma.

Stanley Druckenmiller spoke about this on the only reason why he was made Director of Research at mid-20s, only 1.5 yrs into his career.

"Because, for the same reason they send 18-year-olds to war. You’re too dumb, too young, and too inexperienced not to know to charge. We around here have been in a bear market since 1968 … So I need a young, inexperienced guy (that knows how to charge recklessly into the bull)"

"So, then right after he leaves, … I’m 25 (really 26) … I don’t have any experience … The list I proposed went up 100%. … And then at 26 years old they made me chief investment officer of the whole place. … So the reason I say there was a lot of luck involved is because it was my youth and it was my inexperience, and I was ready to charge.”
❤1
re China<> US trade deal; there's been positive resolution over the weekend.

China to delay RE ban by 1 year (interesting that it's framed as a temporary halt), and continue substantial exports of US soybean (so back to a yr ago levels?).

I am very interested to know what China is getting out of it — would expect China to get more out of the deal coming into it from a position of strength. It would be really funny if China ends up getting a larger decrease in tariffs compared to announced figures on Liberation Day, vs Japan/SK/allies, when the much of the goal of Liberation Day was to halt China's advance.

Despite the temporary relief in trade tensions, I only expect China's self-sufficiency efforts to intensify. This was also alluded to in their Fourth Plenum goals. Everyone knows that the relief is only a tactical floor, and undercurrents still remain and can erupt again anytime. Hence, I continue to be very bullish on our China picks. Sadly though, the best China picks are not accessible to non-institutional foreigners.
Pivot Point Capital
Re-added $U long @ $36.68 and $APP long @ $560.12 Similarly a rotation move to AI software beneficiaries. APP’s e-commerce launch also seems to be going well, and stock has actually done fairly well up till the SEC investigation. Investigation seems like…
Trimmed some $APP @ $636 for +13%

Added to $U @ $38 - $38.5. Game plan is to buy accelerating top lines, which obviously is much harder for APP vs U.

Still like APP and have a sizable position in it — but APP is now in the big boys’ league with their e-comm expansion and will have to prove themselves worthy there for the market to be willing to pay a premium for their growth. Bar is just lower for U to clear.