Pivot Point Capital
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*WILL NEVER ASK YOU FOR FUNDS*

Generalist, mostly long, rarely short. Occasionally a lover of unloved assets. Unedited messages.
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Another tidbit from Altman’s blog

“right now, other countries are building things like chips fabs and new energy production much faster than we are, and we want to help turn that tide. Over the next couple of months, we’ll be talking about some of our plans and the partners we are working with to make this a reality.”

https://blog.samaltman.com/abundant-intelligence

$INTC
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Pivot Point Capital
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-chip-tariffs-exemptions-90fa2ab3?mod=mhp
“…increase onshore chips production from 2% to 40% by 2030”

$TSM is restricted by Taiwan’s legislature from off-shoring leading-edge node IP, as it is their only leverage against China’s hostility.

Added more $INTC @ $34.66 on Friday.

https://x.com/commercegov/status/1972081949612429689?s=46
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Rumors suggest that $INTC will reveal several key updates during ITT 2025 on September 29:
- Panther Lake
- IFS 18A/14A update

Panther Lake is particularly significant for the following reasons:
1) It is the first “true” Intel product manufactured internally with IFS on the 18A, which is Intel’s first fully EUV + backside power delivery node.
2) The chip’s performance will serve as a direct indicator of the health of 18A, and by extension, the feasibility of 14A and IFS’s comeback.
3) Since 18A is a long node, it will serve as Intel’s foundation to remain competitive for several years, as opposed to Intel’s previous strategy of rapid ramp-ups and ramp-downs of new nodes.

The key spec to watch in Panther Lake is its maximum turbo clock frequency. While expectations are not especially high, anything above 5.5 GHz (which is hard to imagine) would be very encouraging for Intel’s 18A and would serve as a proof point of IFS’s comeback.
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Added $600089.SEHK (Tbea) and $600869.SEHK (Far East Smarter Energy) longs at $16.15 and $8.17 RMB respectively to gain exposure to China’s power grid expansion

Not many other ways to play it; power companies are SOC, and other levered plays are only listed on STAR which is limited to institutions, lol
https://x.com/openai/status/1973071069016641829?s=46

Will be scaling into longs on storage names over the week; I think multi-media AI outputs like videos are about to exponentially soar, driving the storage upcycle (which might be here).
Pivot Point Capital
https://x.com/openai/status/1973071069016641829?s=46 Will be scaling into longs on storage names over the week; I think multi-media AI outputs like videos are about to exponentially soar, driving the storage upcycle (which might be here).
Looking at the comments below the X post, seems it’s consensus that AI-produced videos are soulless slop. I agree that it does feel that way now — when it’s in the first inning, but how about 5 or 10 years later?

A reminder again that if AI is a generational inflection event, to not stand on the wrong side of history.
Pivot Point Capital
Added $SDNK and $MU longs @ $114.63 and $168.50 respectively, as explained earlier.
Storage/memory companies today reminds me of utility companies like $VST a year ago: a sector that was historically assigned low multiples, then reshaped by a “big bang” demand shock. Pre–big bang investors that refuse to adapt to the new reality found it difficult to value these stocks accurately in the new environment. If you were stuck in that pre–big bang mindset, you would have blown up multiple times shorting $VST over the past two years.

Utilities traditionally traded at ~8–10x multiples prior to AI, constrained by capex cycles, low structural growth, and heavy regulation. They were viewed as stable, income-like vehicles. The datacenter buildout fundamentally changed this dynamic, with relentless demand for power and energy resetting investor expectations.

My point is not that multiples will never revert (they likely will once the buildout normalizes), but more that we should be conscious on whether historical frameworks remain fit to evaluate both the present and the future.
Pivot Point Capital
$INTC jumped 9% on the rumour of Intel’s outreach to TSMC, carrying the portfolio despite yesterday’s market-wide volatility. What’s a billion dollars to TSMC? I could actually see them being interested. It would be valuable political capital, and also…
$INTC +7% on news of talks to add AMD as a foundry customer.

What’s a billion $ to AMD? So far we’ve gotten the news order quite right with the exception of $TSMC: NVDA > AAPL > AMD. Let’s have a little fun, I think next one will be $TSLA, or $AVGO for its custom silicon. LBT’s assembling the avengers!
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $SDNK and $MU longs @ $114.63 and $168.50 respectively, as explained earlier.
Seems like the market woke up to the storage names at just about the same time as us. Both names, alongside other HDD names, are +6% to 9% yesterday. Likely driven by rise of Sora in the app store. I am a firm believer in "invest then investigate" philosophy, as it is often too late to investigate then invest in today's market. We retail are also at the bottom of the info chain. However will spend the remaining part of this week diving deeper into this sector.

Tbh, while we might not be THAT early in the storage trend anymore — many of these storage cos are already the top yearly performers of S&P500 with YTD being 150%++, will play by ear and evaluate this trade based on how the AI inference trend develops going forward. Besides, I thought I was late to $VST in 2024 buying it at $80+ after it has already ran 120% in 1H24. Today it's $200. So who really knows?

$SDNK $MU $WDC $STX
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Pivot Point Capital
Seems like the market woke up to the storage names at just about the same time as us. Both names, alongside other HDD names, are +6% to 9% yesterday. Likely driven by rise of Sora in the app store. I am a firm believer in "invest then investigate" philosophy…
Asian memory giants are up huge today. $000660.KR & $005930.KR +10% and +4% respectively. $285A.JT, $SNDK JV partner, +14%.

SK Hynix to expand DRAM capacity to 620k wafers in 2026 in response to overwhelming HBM demand.

Also realised that I spelt $SNDK wrongly as $SDNK. Anyway, ticker mentioned above refers to SanDisk.