Added $CAVA short @ $62.9-$63

Added $CRCL short @ $130.04

$INTC jumped 9% on the rumour of Intel’s outreach to TSMC, carrying the portfolio despite yesterday’s market-wide volatility.

What’s a billion dollars to TSMC? I could actually see them being interested. It would be valuable political capital, and also a strategic hedge in case customers shift their business to Intel down the line.

LBT is really trying to create an $ASML situation here (search above for the lore). I think it’s smart, because one of the biggest challenges Intel Foundry (IFS) faces is that fabless customers don’t trust Intel with their chip designs—since Intel is still an IDM with its own competing design arm (Intel Products). As a result, IFS struggles to attract external customers. It’s a tough problem to overcome, almost a chicken-and-egg scenario: if customers don’t trust you first, how can you prove their designs are safe with you?

That’s where a consortium of major customers, each taking an equity stake in Intel, could change the dynamic. With ownership truly aligned, it would strengthen IFS’s independence and give customers greater benefit of the doubt.

I also think it is very likely that there will be a spinoff of IFS eventually, mainly also to address this problem.

News of tariffs on pharma products also just came through yesterday. If DT and his minions are truly sincere about helping $INTC regain its footing (and getting that 5x ROI), I think we’ll probably see some form of tariffs on advanced chips too, soon.

Just in. Right on dot.

$INTC

Another tidbit from Altman’s blog

“right now, other countries are building things like chips fabs and new energy production much faster than we are, and we want to help turn that tide. Over the next couple of months, we’ll be talking about some of our plans and the partners we are working with to make this a reality.”

https://blog.samaltman.com/abundant-intelligence

$INTC

“…increase onshore chips production from 2% to 40% by 2030”

$TSM is restricted by Taiwan’s legislature from off-shoring leading-edge node IP, as it is their only leverage against China’s hostility.

Added more $INTC @ $34.66 on Friday.

https://x.com/commercegov/status/1972081949612429689?s=46

Rumors suggest that $INTC will reveal several key updates during ITT 2025 on September 29:
- Panther Lake
- IFS 18A/14A update

Panther Lake is particularly significant for the following reasons:
1) It is the first “true” Intel product manufactured internally with IFS on the 18A, which is Intel’s first fully EUV + backside power delivery node.
2) The chip’s performance will serve as a direct indicator of the health of 18A, and by extension, the feasibility of 14A and IFS’s comeback.
3) Since 18A is a long node, it will serve as Intel’s foundation to remain competitive for several years, as opposed to Intel’s previous strategy of rapid ramp-ups and ramp-downs of new nodes.

The key spec to watch in Panther Lake is its maximum turbo clock frequency. While expectations are not especially high, anything above 5.5 GHz (which is hard to imagine) would be very encouraging for Intel’s 18A and would serve as a proof point of IFS’s comeback.

Added $600089.SEHK (Tbea) and $600869.SEHK (Far East Smarter Energy) longs at $16.15 and $8.17 RMB respectively to gain exposure to China’s power grid expansion

Not many other ways to play it; power companies are SOC, and other levered plays are only listed on STAR which is limited to institutions, lol

On the move

https://x.com/openai/status/1973071069016641829?s=46

Will be scaling into longs on storage names over the week; I think multi-media AI outputs like videos are about to exponentially soar, driving the storage upcycle (which might be here).

Looking at the comments below the X post, seems it’s consensus that AI-produced videos are soulless slop. I agree that it does feel that way now — when it’s in the first inning, but how about 5 or 10 years later?

A reminder again that if AI is a generational inflection event, to not stand on the wrong side of history.

https://x.com/maguswazir/status/1640555696750993415?s=46

For reference, this is an AI-video output from just 2 years ago. Now compare that to the Sora video today. Then project that rate of change 5 to 10 years into the future.

Added $SDNK and $MU longs @ $114.63 and $168.50 respectively, as explained earlier.

Storage/memory companies today reminds me of utility companies like $VST a year ago: a sector that was historically assigned low multiples, then reshaped by a “big bang” demand shock. Pre–big bang investors that refuse to adapt to the new reality found it difficult to value these stocks accurately in the new environment. If you were stuck in that pre–big bang mindset, you would have blown up multiple times shorting $VST over the past two years.

Utilities traditionally traded at ~8–10x multiples prior to AI, constrained by capex cycles, low structural growth, and heavy regulation. They were viewed as stable, income-like vehicles. The datacenter buildout fundamentally changed this dynamic, with relentless demand for power and energy resetting investor expectations.

My point is not that multiples will never revert (they likely will once the buildout normalizes), but more that we should be conscious on whether historical frameworks remain fit to evaluate both the present and the future.

And just like that, in the span of 2 short weeks, $RDDT DAU growth concerns are back.