Saw a post recently that showed that 15/20 of the top gainers on Friday had no revenue or are largely loss-making.. think it’s an apt representation of the times we are in.
Like I said previously, it’s pointless to call a top in a stimulus and grift heavy environment. However, one day the tides will always turn, as is the nature of cycles. Stay humble and take profits along the way. And remember, don’t fall for the “I’m a genius” meme!
Like I said previously, it’s pointless to call a top in a stimulus and grift heavy environment. However, one day the tides will always turn, as is the nature of cycles. Stay humble and take profits along the way. And remember, don’t fall for the “I’m a genius” meme!
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Pivot Point Capital
Also think we might see capital rotation from AI SW beneficiaries back into AI infrastructure, so added to $APLD $NBIS $CORZ longs @ $20.43 $95 $16.97 respectively
OpenAI <> NVDA deal pushing AI Infrastructure higher. My thinking is that $ORCL earnings kickstarted the next leg of the AI boom and the market is now focusing on the infrastructure demand coming from AI inference, vs 2023-2024 where demand was coming from AI training.
Pivot Point Capital
OpenAI <> NVDA deal pushing AI Infrastructure higher. My thinking is that $ORCL earnings kickstarted the next leg of the AI boom and the market is now focusing on the infrastructure demand coming from AI inference, vs 2023-2024 where demand was coming from…
$APLD @ $26.2, +75% from initial entry @ $14.95
These small caps are very levered to AI datacenters build out as any multi-billion deals from the hyperscalers could easily multiply their EBITDA, especially in this scarce supply environment.
Simplistically, when whales like OpenAI/Oracle/Google/Microsoft splash in the ocean, it creates a wave which lifts all boats, but especially the smaller sampans.
Think it’s still “early” on this next leg of the AI infras boom, but let’s see.
These small caps are very levered to AI datacenters build out as any multi-billion deals from the hyperscalers could easily multiply their EBITDA, especially in this scarce supply environment.
Simplistically, when whales like OpenAI/Oracle/Google/Microsoft splash in the ocean, it creates a wave which lifts all boats, but especially the smaller sampans.
Think it’s still “early” on this next leg of the AI infras boom, but let’s see.
Pivot Point Capital
Added more $CRWV long @ ~$107. Average cost basis @ $104.94 now
Exited $CRWV long @ $133, +26% from avg cost @ $105
Sized up on $NBIS @ $107
Sized up on $NBIS @ $107
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed another 35% of my $RDDT @ ~$265 (total ~50% exited) and also sold all of my Jun27$165C LEAPs. One of my very few profitable option trades 😂 It’s been a good run with this name. Reason for derisking is that I think the name is fairly priced for its…
Fully exited remaining $RDDT @ $257, for +75%. Overall an excellent trade that put me back in tune with the market
Pivot Point Capital
Second reason for derisking Reddit was to size up my $INTC position @ $29.5-$30, which is now my largest position. I see $INTC as quite possibly the fat pitch of 2025/2026, but as I mentioned numerous times, the drawback is that there is an uncertain duration…
Added more to $INTC $29.09 - $29.57. Fully sized now
Added new $VST $PSIX longs @ $209.38 $116.57 respectively to raise exposure to the power element of the AI infrastructure trade
Pivot Point Capital
$TGEN +30% in AH to $11.51 driven by the press release. While still in the quoting phase, this has the potential to add $60mn - $200mn of annual revenue just from these 2 projects (vs current revenue of $30mn). Just a few deals signed can multiply its current…
Added to $TGEN @ 9.37-$9.54. Still a moonshot low cap play
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed 15% of $U @ $47, +31% from entry
Exited $U @ $45.2
Been cutting a lot of risk lately — want to be safe than sorry
Been cutting a lot of risk lately — want to be safe than sorry
Pivot Point Capital
$BABA @ $160 in pre-market Who would have thought that discouraging speculative pump-and-dumps in the market could redirect flows into a scarce and reasonably valued asset that is *also* riding a generational tailwind, pushing it to multi-year highs?
$BABA @ $174.75 in pre-market, +42% from our initial entry @ $122
We re-ran $VRT’s rally with $002837.SZ, hopefully we also get to re-run MAG7’s rally with BABA1
We re-ran $VRT’s rally with $002837.SZ, hopefully we also get to re-run MAG7’s rally with BABA1
Pivot Point Capital
The semi-passive portfolio has outperformed significantly over the past month (+20.6%, S&P +2%, NDX +2.8%), excluding the impact of leverage. China AI theme was a huge contributor to returns, alongside Adtech/AI SW theme. Changing things up a little as some…
The semi-passive long-only portfolio continues its outperformance over the past month (+15.1% vs SPY 3.1% and NDX 4.9%).
Compounding all of the returns generated over the past year since we introduced the semi-passive portfolio, the net unlevered return stands at 94.3% (vs SPY 9.4% and NDX 14.4%). Overall, I'm pleased with the performance.
An area of improvement however could be having our high-conviction basket contribute more to the overall portfolio return, vs our mid-conviction and moonshot baskets. Though this may also just be a matter of timing as high-conviction trades can be afforded a longer duration to play out.
Making many changes in the portfolio this time, with removals highlighted in red and additions highlighted in green. Going for a very concentrated theme here (AI Infrastructure), so it may not suit everyone. But it's what I would play — you can decide your % allocation yourself.
Compounding all of the returns generated over the past year since we introduced the semi-passive portfolio, the net unlevered return stands at 94.3% (vs SPY 9.4% and NDX 14.4%). Overall, I'm pleased with the performance.
An area of improvement however could be having our high-conviction basket contribute more to the overall portfolio return, vs our mid-conviction and moonshot baskets. Though this may also just be a matter of timing as high-conviction trades can be afforded a longer duration to play out.
Making many changes in the portfolio this time, with removals highlighted in red and additions highlighted in green. Going for a very concentrated theme here (AI Infrastructure), so it may not suit everyone. But it's what I would play — you can decide your % allocation yourself.
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Pivot Point Capital
GG. $INTC +32% to $33 in pre-market, breaking out of its year-long $18-$25 range. What’s a billy$ to NVDA? Now what’s a billy$ to AAPL? To AMD? To Broadcom? To Qualcomm? Nothing. What’s a billy$ vote of confidence to $INTC..? Everything. The flywheel has…
What’s a billion $ to $AAPL? 🤷♀️
NVDA down, AAPL seemingly next. The Pandora’s box is open, and the dominoes are falling. Let’s throw TSLA into the hat too.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/intel-is-seeking-an-investment-from-apple-as-part-of-its-comeback-bid
NVDA down, AAPL seemingly next. The Pandora’s box is open, and the dominoes are falling. Let’s throw TSLA into the hat too.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/intel-is-seeking-an-investment-from-apple-as-part-of-its-comeback-bid
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There’s also rumours of $INTC increasing their low-NA and high-NA EUV unit orders by 2 and 1 respectively from $ASML. High-NA EUV is used for 14A..
Intel has previously mentioned that they would not build 14A without first securing a customer..
A customer for 14A being announced would probably send the stock +20%-30%. It’s another Pandora’s box right..? One customer “daring” to break away from TSMC and switch would then incentivise another one to switch, and so on. My money’s on AAPL being the first.
Hopefully LBT brings it home.
Intel has previously mentioned that they would not build 14A without first securing a customer..
A customer for 14A being announced would probably send the stock +20%-30%. It’s another Pandora’s box right..? One customer “daring” to break away from TSMC and switch would then incentivise another one to switch, and so on. My money’s on AAPL being the first.
Hopefully LBT brings it home.
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $CAVA short @ $67.69
Added $CAVA short @ $62.9-$63
Pivot Point Capital
What’s a billion $ to $AAPL? 🤷♀️ NVDA down, AAPL seemingly next. The Pandora’s box is open, and the dominoes are falling. Let’s throw TSLA into the hat too. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/intel-is-seeking-an-investment-from-apple-as…
$INTC jumped 9% on the rumour of Intel’s outreach to TSMC, carrying the portfolio despite yesterday’s market-wide volatility.
What’s a billion dollars to TSMC? I could actually see them being interested. It would be valuable political capital, and also a strategic hedge in case customers shift their business to Intel down the line.
LBT is really trying to create an $ASML situation here (search above for the lore). I think it’s smart, because one of the biggest challenges Intel Foundry (IFS) faces is that fabless customers don’t trust Intel with their chip designs—since Intel is still an IDM with its own competing design arm (Intel Products). As a result, IFS struggles to attract external customers. It’s a tough problem to overcome, almost a chicken-and-egg scenario: if customers don’t trust you first, how can you prove their designs are safe with you?
That’s where a consortium of major customers, each taking an equity stake in Intel, could change the dynamic. With ownership truly aligned, it would strengthen IFS’s independence and give customers greater benefit of the doubt.
I also think it is very likely that there will be a spinoff of IFS eventually, mainly also to address this problem.
What’s a billion dollars to TSMC? I could actually see them being interested. It would be valuable political capital, and also a strategic hedge in case customers shift their business to Intel down the line.
LBT is really trying to create an $ASML situation here (search above for the lore). I think it’s smart, because one of the biggest challenges Intel Foundry (IFS) faces is that fabless customers don’t trust Intel with their chip designs—since Intel is still an IDM with its own competing design arm (Intel Products). As a result, IFS struggles to attract external customers. It’s a tough problem to overcome, almost a chicken-and-egg scenario: if customers don’t trust you first, how can you prove their designs are safe with you?
That’s where a consortium of major customers, each taking an equity stake in Intel, could change the dynamic. With ownership truly aligned, it would strengthen IFS’s independence and give customers greater benefit of the doubt.
I also think it is very likely that there will be a spinoff of IFS eventually, mainly also to address this problem.
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Pivot Point Capital
$INTC jumped 9% on the rumour of Intel’s outreach to TSMC, carrying the portfolio despite yesterday’s market-wide volatility. What’s a billion dollars to TSMC? I could actually see them being interested. It would be valuable political capital, and also…
News of tariffs on pharma products also just came through yesterday. If DT and his minions are truly sincere about helping $INTC regain its footing (and getting that 5x ROI), I think we’ll probably see some form of tariffs on advanced chips too, soon.
Pivot Point Capital
News of tariffs on pharma products also just came through yesterday. If DT and his minions are truly sincere about helping $INTC regain its footing (and getting that 5x ROI), I think we’ll probably see some form of tariffs on advanced chips too, soon.
Just in. Right on dot.
$INTC
$INTC
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