Pivot Point Capital
“Unlike its earlier $60M licensing deal, Reddit is pushing for deeper integration and dynamic pricing tied to how essential its data becomes for AI models.” On a serious note, the news appears positively incremental in three ways: (1) this deal looks much…
Trimmed another 15% of $RDDT @ $275 yesterday, +87% gain from initial entry
Trimming as that was my original TP before the AI content deal w Google. Reddit was also my largest position, so feels apt to trim down the exposure after such a rally.
Trimming as that was my original TP before the AI content deal w Google. Reddit was also my largest position, so feels apt to trim down the exposure after such a rally.
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed another 15% of $RDDT @ $275 yesterday, +87% gain from initial entry Trimming as that was my original TP before the AI content deal w Google. Reddit was also my largest position, so feels apt to trim down the exposure after such a rally.
Trimmed another 35% of my $RDDT @ ~$265 (total ~50% exited) and also sold all of my Jun27$165C LEAPs. One of my very few profitable option trades 😂
It’s been a good run with this name. Reason for derisking is that I think the name is fairly priced for its future growth now. Consensus and web traffic data is now expecting for DAUs to remain stable (vs a downwards expectation last quarter). This means less upside for DAUs surprises, and more downside for DAUs misses. TBH, my view is that the stock isn’t that much derisked, as the Street now thinks. Reality is that Reddit is still very dependent on Google for web traffic, which itself is going through a sea change. Thus I expect more volatility in DAUs ahead, and not a linear stability. So in that sense, r/r is much lower. But compensating for that, the data licensing narrative may pick up, so I’m still holding the rest on house money.
Reddit was one of my highest conviction trades for 2025! Honestly, very proud of my execution on this trade (among many other misses). It’s the #1 PnL$ contributor over the past 1 year for my book, and $ profit generated on Reddit is ~8x larger than my largest loss (OSCR, probably CRCL soon). Again, shows the importance of sizing = conviction.
It’s been a good run with this name. Reason for derisking is that I think the name is fairly priced for its future growth now. Consensus and web traffic data is now expecting for DAUs to remain stable (vs a downwards expectation last quarter). This means less upside for DAUs surprises, and more downside for DAUs misses. TBH, my view is that the stock isn’t that much derisked, as the Street now thinks. Reality is that Reddit is still very dependent on Google for web traffic, which itself is going through a sea change. Thus I expect more volatility in DAUs ahead, and not a linear stability. So in that sense, r/r is much lower. But compensating for that, the data licensing narrative may pick up, so I’m still holding the rest on house money.
Reddit was one of my highest conviction trades for 2025! Honestly, very proud of my execution on this trade (among many other misses). It’s the #1 PnL$ contributor over the past 1 year for my book, and $ profit generated on Reddit is ~8x larger than my largest loss (OSCR, probably CRCL soon). Again, shows the importance of sizing = conviction.
Pivot Point Capital
7) This event reminds me of Microsoft’s $150mn vote of confidence in AAPL in 1997. Apple was on the brink of collapse, and MSFT stepped in with capital and Office/IE integration. It was a lifeline for AAPL, and insurance for MSFT: keep the Mac alive for Microsoft’s…
Second reason for derisking Reddit was to size up my $INTC position @ $29.5-$30, which is now my largest position.
I see $INTC as quite possibly the fat pitch of 2025/2026, but as I mentioned numerous times, the drawback is that there is an uncertain duration for the trade. We don’t know how long it will take to play out and there’s no linear catalysts or datapoints to track beyond lumpy announcements, but the probability of it playing out is high imo.
I’m also not trying to break my back for the rest of the year and am happy dialing it back to a slower cadence. Thus, INTC suits my portfolio atm.
When I first got into the buyside, my PM/mentor told me that in a pitch, there’s only 1 or 2 factors that really matter. INTC is a great example of that; that one factor here is the weight of the US Gov, and the second factor is that AGI is a national security issue.
I see $INTC as quite possibly the fat pitch of 2025/2026, but as I mentioned numerous times, the drawback is that there is an uncertain duration for the trade. We don’t know how long it will take to play out and there’s no linear catalysts or datapoints to track beyond lumpy announcements, but the probability of it playing out is high imo.
I’m also not trying to break my back for the rest of the year and am happy dialing it back to a slower cadence. Thus, INTC suits my portfolio atm.
When I first got into the buyside, my PM/mentor told me that in a pitch, there’s only 1 or 2 factors that really matter. INTC is a great example of that; that one factor here is the weight of the US Gov, and the second factor is that AGI is a national security issue.
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $NBIS @ $91 - $95 too, on the post-offering dip $ORCL is just mind-boggling, +40% to reach nearly $1tn mcap, while pulling up all AI infrastructure plays. No words to describe this $CRWV $APLD $AAOI $NBIS
Also think we might see capital rotation from AI SW beneficiaries back into AI infrastructure, so added to $APLD $NBIS $CORZ longs @ $20.43 $95 $16.97 respectively
Saw a post recently that showed that 15/20 of the top gainers on Friday had no revenue or are largely loss-making.. think it’s an apt representation of the times we are in.
Like I said previously, it’s pointless to call a top in a stimulus and grift heavy environment. However, one day the tides will always turn, as is the nature of cycles. Stay humble and take profits along the way. And remember, don’t fall for the “I’m a genius” meme!
Like I said previously, it’s pointless to call a top in a stimulus and grift heavy environment. However, one day the tides will always turn, as is the nature of cycles. Stay humble and take profits along the way. And remember, don’t fall for the “I’m a genius” meme!
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Pivot Point Capital
Also think we might see capital rotation from AI SW beneficiaries back into AI infrastructure, so added to $APLD $NBIS $CORZ longs @ $20.43 $95 $16.97 respectively
OpenAI <> NVDA deal pushing AI Infrastructure higher. My thinking is that $ORCL earnings kickstarted the next leg of the AI boom and the market is now focusing on the infrastructure demand coming from AI inference, vs 2023-2024 where demand was coming from AI training.
Pivot Point Capital
OpenAI <> NVDA deal pushing AI Infrastructure higher. My thinking is that $ORCL earnings kickstarted the next leg of the AI boom and the market is now focusing on the infrastructure demand coming from AI inference, vs 2023-2024 where demand was coming from…
$APLD @ $26.2, +75% from initial entry @ $14.95
These small caps are very levered to AI datacenters build out as any multi-billion deals from the hyperscalers could easily multiply their EBITDA, especially in this scarce supply environment.
Simplistically, when whales like OpenAI/Oracle/Google/Microsoft splash in the ocean, it creates a wave which lifts all boats, but especially the smaller sampans.
Think it’s still “early” on this next leg of the AI infras boom, but let’s see.
These small caps are very levered to AI datacenters build out as any multi-billion deals from the hyperscalers could easily multiply their EBITDA, especially in this scarce supply environment.
Simplistically, when whales like OpenAI/Oracle/Google/Microsoft splash in the ocean, it creates a wave which lifts all boats, but especially the smaller sampans.
Think it’s still “early” on this next leg of the AI infras boom, but let’s see.
Pivot Point Capital
Added more $CRWV long @ ~$107. Average cost basis @ $104.94 now
Exited $CRWV long @ $133, +26% from avg cost @ $105
Sized up on $NBIS @ $107
Sized up on $NBIS @ $107
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed another 35% of my $RDDT @ ~$265 (total ~50% exited) and also sold all of my Jun27$165C LEAPs. One of my very few profitable option trades 😂 It’s been a good run with this name. Reason for derisking is that I think the name is fairly priced for its…
Fully exited remaining $RDDT @ $257, for +75%. Overall an excellent trade that put me back in tune with the market
Pivot Point Capital
Second reason for derisking Reddit was to size up my $INTC position @ $29.5-$30, which is now my largest position. I see $INTC as quite possibly the fat pitch of 2025/2026, but as I mentioned numerous times, the drawback is that there is an uncertain duration…
Added more to $INTC $29.09 - $29.57. Fully sized now
Added new $VST $PSIX longs @ $209.38 $116.57 respectively to raise exposure to the power element of the AI infrastructure trade
Pivot Point Capital
$TGEN +30% in AH to $11.51 driven by the press release. While still in the quoting phase, this has the potential to add $60mn - $200mn of annual revenue just from these 2 projects (vs current revenue of $30mn). Just a few deals signed can multiply its current…
Added to $TGEN @ 9.37-$9.54. Still a moonshot low cap play
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed 15% of $U @ $47, +31% from entry
Exited $U @ $45.2
Been cutting a lot of risk lately — want to be safe than sorry
Been cutting a lot of risk lately — want to be safe than sorry
Pivot Point Capital
$BABA @ $160 in pre-market Who would have thought that discouraging speculative pump-and-dumps in the market could redirect flows into a scarce and reasonably valued asset that is *also* riding a generational tailwind, pushing it to multi-year highs?
$BABA @ $174.75 in pre-market, +42% from our initial entry @ $122
We re-ran $VRT’s rally with $002837.SZ, hopefully we also get to re-run MAG7’s rally with BABA1
We re-ran $VRT’s rally with $002837.SZ, hopefully we also get to re-run MAG7’s rally with BABA1
Pivot Point Capital
The semi-passive portfolio has outperformed significantly over the past month (+20.6%, S&P +2%, NDX +2.8%), excluding the impact of leverage. China AI theme was a huge contributor to returns, alongside Adtech/AI SW theme. Changing things up a little as some…
The semi-passive long-only portfolio continues its outperformance over the past month (+15.1% vs SPY 3.1% and NDX 4.9%).
Compounding all of the returns generated over the past year since we introduced the semi-passive portfolio, the net unlevered return stands at 94.3% (vs SPY 9.4% and NDX 14.4%). Overall, I'm pleased with the performance.
An area of improvement however could be having our high-conviction basket contribute more to the overall portfolio return, vs our mid-conviction and moonshot baskets. Though this may also just be a matter of timing as high-conviction trades can be afforded a longer duration to play out.
Making many changes in the portfolio this time, with removals highlighted in red and additions highlighted in green. Going for a very concentrated theme here (AI Infrastructure), so it may not suit everyone. But it's what I would play — you can decide your % allocation yourself.
Compounding all of the returns generated over the past year since we introduced the semi-passive portfolio, the net unlevered return stands at 94.3% (vs SPY 9.4% and NDX 14.4%). Overall, I'm pleased with the performance.
An area of improvement however could be having our high-conviction basket contribute more to the overall portfolio return, vs our mid-conviction and moonshot baskets. Though this may also just be a matter of timing as high-conviction trades can be afforded a longer duration to play out.
Making many changes in the portfolio this time, with removals highlighted in red and additions highlighted in green. Going for a very concentrated theme here (AI Infrastructure), so it may not suit everyone. But it's what I would play — you can decide your % allocation yourself.
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Pivot Point Capital
GG. $INTC +32% to $33 in pre-market, breaking out of its year-long $18-$25 range. What’s a billy$ to NVDA? Now what’s a billy$ to AAPL? To AMD? To Broadcom? To Qualcomm? Nothing. What’s a billy$ vote of confidence to $INTC..? Everything. The flywheel has…
What’s a billion $ to $AAPL? 🤷♀️
NVDA down, AAPL seemingly next. The Pandora’s box is open, and the dominoes are falling. Let’s throw TSLA into the hat too.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/intel-is-seeking-an-investment-from-apple-as-part-of-its-comeback-bid
NVDA down, AAPL seemingly next. The Pandora’s box is open, and the dominoes are falling. Let’s throw TSLA into the hat too.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/intel-is-seeking-an-investment-from-apple-as-part-of-its-comeback-bid
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There’s also rumours of $INTC increasing their low-NA and high-NA EUV unit orders by 2 and 1 respectively from $ASML. High-NA EUV is used for 14A..
Intel has previously mentioned that they would not build 14A without first securing a customer..
A customer for 14A being announced would probably send the stock +20%-30%. It’s another Pandora’s box right..? One customer “daring” to break away from TSMC and switch would then incentivise another one to switch, and so on. My money’s on AAPL being the first.
Hopefully LBT brings it home.
Intel has previously mentioned that they would not build 14A without first securing a customer..
A customer for 14A being announced would probably send the stock +20%-30%. It’s another Pandora’s box right..? One customer “daring” to break away from TSMC and switch would then incentivise another one to switch, and so on. My money’s on AAPL being the first.
Hopefully LBT brings it home.
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