Longed $CRWV and $APLD @ $101.31 & $14.95 respectively, as a proxy bet on AI infrastructure services, driven by $NBIS <> $MSFT $18bn deal announcement. $ORCL strong revenue projections last night also validates the demand for AI infrastructure.

CRWV has just gone through massive FUD for insider unlocks and it’s -45% off highs, so it’s relatively advantageous positioning-wise. I like the r/r here

Closed $NKE short @ $74.5 for 6% gain.

Sentiments might improve on the name as the tariff-related litigation moves through the courts, can imagine upside from here if Trump’s tariffs aren’t upheld by the Supreme Court hence going flat for now.

Cut $AVAV @ $240.3 for 3% gain. Don’t know enough about the stock nor sector to undertake the volatility and execution risk of this name, as they try to transit from a drone pure-play to a diversified defense contractor with space capabilities.

Added more $CRWV long @ ~$107. Average cost basis @ $104.94 now

Added $NBIS @ $91 - $95 too, on the post-offering dip

$ORCL is just mind-boggling, +40% to reach nearly $1tn mcap, while pulling up all AI infrastructure plays. No words to describe this

$CRWV $APLD $AAOI $NBIS

Jeffries raised $RDDT PT to $300, driving the name to new ATHs @ $257, +75% from our initial entry @ $147

“Sustainability of Rev growth is the key debate following an acceleration to multiyr highs and a recent stabilization in DAU trends. Our analysis of market share trajectories for peers during early stages of monetization suggests RDDT could see over 35% upside to '27 cons Rev. We also believe Data Licensing presents an underappreciated call option that could drive even greater upside to EBITDA, supporting our bull case and creating an attractive risk-reward.” Jeffries

$BMNR @ $51.7 now

Full disclosure I exited ~$44.3 near breakeven, didn’t have the patience to see this play out. Congrats to those who are still in it!

$FIVE finally back near breakeven. Still pressing the short

Still pressing the short on $CRCL too. This short is harder to manage as the shareholder base doesn’t care about earnings (hence why it’s not a large short position for me), but fundamentals-wise I think it’s a definite short. Just need to not get blown out by the volatility through the process.

$BABA @ $160 in pre-market

Who would have thought that discouraging speculative pump-and-dumps in the market could redirect flows into a scarce and reasonably valued asset that is *also* riding a generational tailwind, pushing it to multi-year highs?

Added to $CRCL short $127 - $130

Besides the other threats to the core biz mentioned above, if we’re going into a rate cut cycle, this feels like a natural hedge

Trimmed 15% of $U @ $47, +31% from entry

Trimmed 10% of $RDDT @ $264, +80% from initial entry

Trimmed 15% of $APLD @ $19.6, +31% from entry

Kind of poetic that one of my favourite longs is putting the squeeze on two of my favourite shorts 😮‍💨

$GOOG $COIN $CRCL

Started new long in $DLO @ $14.87. Short pitch below

DLO acts as a payment bridge between global merchants and consumers in emerging markets, unifying all local payment complexities and methods into a single API and platform for pay-ins and pay-outs.

Their value-add lies in simplifying the fragmented payments industry of emerging markets — the dozens of currencies, payment methods (vouchers, digital wallets, bank transfers, BNPL, cards), and varying regulatory/tax compliance requirements. Given the fragmentation of these markets, I believe the switching cost for global merchants like MSFT, NFLX, and Shein, once they engage DLO, is very high.

DLO is led by CEO Pedro Arnt, who was previously the CFO of $MELI. During his 13 years as CFO, MELI grew from ~$3b to $75b in market cap. This helps in my conviction.

The main bear case is that DLO has seen significant take rate compression in recent quarters. Bears view this as evidence of DLO’s lack of moat, as well as a source of operating deleverage.

However, my view is that the take rate compression is natural when the business scales, as DLO provides volume discounts for higher TPV processed. As long as TPV growth outpaces take rate compression, net gross profit dollars will increase meaningfully even if gross margin compresses.

Moreover, given that this is an extremely asset-light business, the natural operating leverage inherent in the model may cushion or even neutralise the effects of take rate compression if gross profit dollar scales faster that expenses.

Management is guiding for midpoint 45% TPV growth in FY25e. While they have been capturing share in LATAM, their current wallet share is still only ~4–6% of LATAM and AMEA e-commerce TAM. Hence, I’m not too worried about TPV growth slowing down.

Valuation also looks reasonable (something that’s hard to find in this environment!), with FY26e P/FCF standing around 18-22x for a 25-30% growth compounder.

I like the stock, and think the r/r is higher than $SE — so moved 75% of my $SE size over; I don’t want too many correlated bets in emerging markets.

Closed $COIN short to size up $CRCL short again @ $142.5

Not back to full position yet as conserving ammo to ladder up if needed; wary of a short squeeze as it seems like IBKR is out of borrowable shares for $CRCL. Some of my short orders are still pending