Pivot Point Capital
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*WILL NEVER ASK YOU FOR FUNDS*

Generalist, mostly long, rarely short. Occasionally a lover of unloved assets. Unedited messages.
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $CRCL short @ $109.89 Had the right idea when the stock was at double the current price, but messed up the trade by covering too early. Shorts are so hard to play in this maniacal environment. But now with hopium out the door for this stock, maybe…
Added to short @ $111 - $115.3

If anyone has been following, a protocol accounting for ~7% of USDC supply ($5bn) is looking for proposals from alternative stablecoin issuers to incubate a “protocol-aligned” native stablecoin, which essentially means having the revenue from the reserve interest yield accrue back to the protocol, rather than the issuer.

4% risk-free interest of $5bn, ~$200mn in rev lost for $CRCL — if the switch is successfully executed. I think this trend will exacerbate — with successful protocols that own the users and their stablecoin deposits — try to cut out the rent seeker in the middle and earn that interest yield themselves.

The fundamental flaw of $CRCL, imo, is that they don’t own the end consumer and thus have to pay heavily for distribution to drive USDC supply growth. We see that with their CRCL <> COIN 50% rev share, we are seeing that now too with off-chain defi protocols.
Pivot Point Capital
Dip buy on $BABA 3 days ago is looking solid now. Release of their new model is driving the name +4% today in HK market. ADR @ $140.4 in US overnight market
$BABA +3% off announcement of the unveiling of a major business tomorrow. ADR @ $145.71 USD, close to setting a new 52-week high.

Rumours are that it’s linked to China digital map provider AMAP, maybe something similar to Dianping? $3690.HK -3% off this news
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Longed $CRWV and $APLD @ $101.31 & $14.95 respectively, as a proxy bet on AI infrastructure services, driven by $NBIS <> $MSFT $18bn deal announcement. $ORCL strong revenue projections last night also validates the demand for AI infrastructure.

CRWV has just gone through massive FUD for insider unlocks and it’s -45% off highs, so it’s relatively advantageous positioning-wise. I like the r/r here
Pivot Point Capital
Added $NKE @ $79.4 and $COIN @ $311.76 to the short basket In its current state, $COIN is a really bad business imo. Not sure how a company can spend a decade trailblazing an entire industry and yet end up with such poor UI/UX and user security. Just take…
Closed $NKE short @ $74.5 for 6% gain.

Sentiments might improve on the name as the tariff-related litigation moves through the courts, can imagine upside from here if Trump’s tariffs aren’t upheld by the Supreme Court hence going flat for now.
Pivot Point Capital
Restarted $AVAV long @ $233.67 This name always gets volatile near earnings, and the integration of the Blue Halo acquisition may have put some investors on jitters. I think it’s sufficiently derisked for me to take a bet into print on Sep 10. Not as large…
Cut $AVAV @ $240.3 for 3% gain. Don’t know enough about the stock nor sector to undertake the volatility and execution risk of this name, as they try to transit from a drone pure-play to a diversified defense contractor with space capabilities.
Pivot Point Capital
Added more $CRWV long @ ~$107. Average cost basis @ $104.94 now
Added $NBIS @ $91 - $95 too, on the post-offering dip

$ORCL is just mind-boggling, +40% to reach nearly $1tn mcap, while pulling up all AI infrastructure plays. No words to describe this

$CRWV $APLD $AAOI $NBIS
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $NBIS @ $91 - $95 too, on the post-offering dip $ORCL is just mind-boggling, +40% to reach nearly $1tn mcap, while pulling up all AI infrastructure plays. No words to describe this $CRWV $APLD $AAOI $NBIS
The sequential jump in $ORCL backlog and their multi year guidance for cloud segment is just.. nuts.

The fact that this happened right after NBIS <> MSFT $18bn deal, and followed by CRWV’s positive comments about market demand for computing power being "massive, astonishing, and unrelenting” with current demand representing a “demand inflection point”, is driving a NVDA moment for AI infrastructure plays.
Pivot Point Capital
Added $RDDT @ $230.73 $INTC @ $21.91 $APP @ $443.23 $TEM @ $69.52 With the $BMNR and $U trims @ $69 & $37.65 respectively
Jeffries raised $RDDT PT to $300, driving the name to new ATHs @ $257, +75% from our initial entry @ $147

“Sustainability of Rev growth is the key debate following an acceleration to multiyr highs and a recent stabilization in DAU trends. Our analysis of market share trajectories for peers during early stages of monetization suggests RDDT could see over 35% upside to '27 cons Rev. We also believe Data Licensing presents an underappreciated call option that could drive even greater upside to EBITDA, supporting our bull case and creating an attractive risk-reward.” Jeffries
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Pivot Point Capital
Shorted more $FIVE @ $146.66 and $COIN @ $305
$FIVE finally back near breakeven. Still pressing the short
Pivot Point Capital
Added to short @ $111 - $115.3 If anyone has been following, a protocol accounting for ~7% of USDC supply ($5bn) is looking for proposals from alternative stablecoin issuers to incubate a “protocol-aligned” native stablecoin, which essentially means having…
Still pressing the short on $CRCL too. This short is harder to manage as the shareholder base doesn’t care about earnings (hence why it’s not a large short position for me), but fundamentals-wise I think it’s a definite short. Just need to not get blown out by the volatility through the process.
$BABA @ $160 in pre-market

Who would have thought that discouraging speculative pump-and-dumps in the market could redirect flows into a scarce and reasonably valued asset that is *also* riding a generational tailwind, pushing it to multi-year highs?
Interesting OpenAI chart showing what customers use ChatGPT for. Seems like 70-80% of these tasks could just as well be handled by an intelligent EA.

Reminds me of how early we are in this journey; if AGI is truly achievable, then we've barely begun to tap into what AI can unlock.

It's very exciting to imagine that the boundaries of human knowledge could expand at a cadence we’ve never seen before, over the next few decades.

Think of the medical breakthroughs waiting to be discovered, the uncharted territories in space and sea ready to be explored, the new school of thoughts yet to be written, even new planets we may one day call home.

There's no better time to dream a little bigger, to adopt a Panglossian outlook on the future.
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