Took a quick hour dab in Tom Lee’s new toy $OCTO. It ain’t much but it’s honest work. Out fully and not touching it again

It’s now trading at 40x mNAV lol… yes I get that they have Tom Lee and Dan Ives and they’re “treasuring” Sam Altman’s coin… but at what point does it get repetitive and honestly tiresome..?

However, $BMNR invested $20m @ $1+ into $OCTO. So I did long some $BMNR @ $44.2 just to see if the narrative that “BMNR turned $20m into $800m” catches on, even tho it’s all just paper profit.

Playing $BMNR with $OCTO profits here. If narrative doesn’t stick, I’ll cut quickly

Restarted $AVAV long @ $233.67

This name always gets volatile near earnings, and the integration of the Blue Halo acquisition may have put some investors on jitters. I think it’s sufficiently derisked for me to take a bet into print on Sep 10.

Not as large a position as previously

Added to short @ $111 - $115.3

If anyone has been following, a protocol accounting for ~7% of USDC supply ($5bn) is looking for proposals from alternative stablecoin issuers to incubate a “protocol-aligned” native stablecoin, which essentially means having the revenue from the reserve interest yield accrue back to the protocol, rather than the issuer.

4% risk-free interest of $5bn, ~$200mn in rev lost for $CRCL — if the switch is successfully executed. I think this trend will exacerbate — with successful protocols that own the users and their stablecoin deposits — try to cut out the rent seeker in the middle and earn that interest yield themselves.

The fundamental flaw of $CRCL, imo, is that they don’t own the end consumer and thus have to pay heavily for distribution to drive USDC supply growth. We see that with their CRCL <> COIN 50% rev share, we are seeing that now too with off-chain defi protocols.

$BABA +3% off announcement of the unveiling of a major business tomorrow. ADR @ $145.71 USD, close to setting a new 52-week high.

Rumours are that it’s linked to China digital map provider AMAP, maybe something similar to Dianping? $3690.HK -3% off this news

$BABA crossed 4-yr high set in 2021. Work of art

Longed $CRWV and $APLD @ $101.31 & $14.95 respectively, as a proxy bet on AI infrastructure services, driven by $NBIS <> $MSFT $18bn deal announcement. $ORCL strong revenue projections last night also validates the demand for AI infrastructure.

CRWV has just gone through massive FUD for insider unlocks and it’s -45% off highs, so it’s relatively advantageous positioning-wise. I like the r/r here

Closed $NKE short @ $74.5 for 6% gain.

Sentiments might improve on the name as the tariff-related litigation moves through the courts, can imagine upside from here if Trump’s tariffs aren’t upheld by the Supreme Court hence going flat for now.

Cut $AVAV @ $240.3 for 3% gain. Don’t know enough about the stock nor sector to undertake the volatility and execution risk of this name, as they try to transit from a drone pure-play to a diversified defense contractor with space capabilities.

Added more $CRWV long @ ~$107. Average cost basis @ $104.94 now

Added $NBIS @ $91 - $95 too, on the post-offering dip

$ORCL is just mind-boggling, +40% to reach nearly $1tn mcap, while pulling up all AI infrastructure plays. No words to describe this

$CRWV $APLD $AAOI $NBIS

Jeffries raised $RDDT PT to $300, driving the name to new ATHs @ $257, +75% from our initial entry @ $147

“Sustainability of Rev growth is the key debate following an acceleration to multiyr highs and a recent stabilization in DAU trends. Our analysis of market share trajectories for peers during early stages of monetization suggests RDDT could see over 35% upside to '27 cons Rev. We also believe Data Licensing presents an underappreciated call option that could drive even greater upside to EBITDA, supporting our bull case and creating an attractive risk-reward.” Jeffries

$BMNR @ $51.7 now

Full disclosure I exited ~$44.3 near breakeven, didn’t have the patience to see this play out. Congrats to those who are still in it!

$FIVE finally back near breakeven. Still pressing the short

Still pressing the short on $CRCL too. This short is harder to manage as the shareholder base doesn’t care about earnings (hence why it’s not a large short position for me), but fundamentals-wise I think it’s a definite short. Just need to not get blown out by the volatility through the process.

$BABA @ $160 in pre-market

Who would have thought that discouraging speculative pump-and-dumps in the market could redirect flows into a scarce and reasonably valued asset that is *also* riding a generational tailwind, pushing it to multi-year highs?

Added to $CRCL short $127 - $130

Besides the other threats to the core biz mentioned above, if we’re going into a rate cut cycle, this feels like a natural hedge

Trimmed 15% of $U @ $47, +31% from entry

Trimmed 10% of $RDDT @ $264, +80% from initial entry

Trimmed 15% of $APLD @ $19.6, +31% from entry