Huge clearing event from yesterday’s federal decision to not break up GOOG’s core businesses, allowing them to keep Chrome and also to continue paying for product distribution; i.e. to be a (but not exclusive) search engine in AAPL’s Safari. A significant legal overhang is removed, stock is +30% from our initial entry and back at ATH @ $225.8.

When we first entered, the narrative was overwhelmingly bearish, and all about search being replaced, GOOG being broken up. Now it’s all about GOOG’s strong cloud growth, high fcf, and its inherent data and AI HW/SW capabilities. Funny how narratives can switch 180 in 3 months. A comfy hold nonetheless.

Started a long in $SE @ $180 yesterday

Always a fan of the business, I think Forrest Li is a great leader. Was actually my first ever pitch in 2022 for a job interview; I pitched $SE as “a call option on SEA’s growth” at $40. Lots have obviously changed since then. E-commerce has been an absolute monster, taking the dominant share in most SEA markets, and a very strong contender to $MELI in Brazil. Switching cost is also very high (listing and relisting assortments, sorting out logistics, running ads etc), and merchants have to be on the platform with the most customers. There’s also still runway for growth, given the low e-comm penetration in SEA.

What’s overlooked is how much SE has built out their 1st party logistics (SPX Express) to complement their e-comm since 2022, which at its current scale is already very impressive. Last-mile delivery is a very difficult issue especially in developing regions, and the hope is that SPX express can eventually allow them to reach cost advantage (and pass that down to strapped consumers to gain wallet share), and also create a barrier of entry/moat vs other e-comm-only players.

Their fintech arm (Monee) is also tearing, and the growth is being driven in large part by a ready customer base derived from their e-comm arm. On-shopee BNPL is already penetrating 15% of Shopee’s GMV, around $4bn USD of loans, or around 65% of Monee’s total outstanding loans. There’s PMF because of the demographics in SEA, with Monee is enabling e-Comm access to cash-strapped consumers that are likely also unbanked. NPL ratio is low at 1.1%, relative to the demographics. Needless to say, EBITDA margins are very high with fintech, given an est. 20-35% APR for BNPL loans.

I’m also bullish on SEA’s emergence in the next decade, which acts as a macro tailwind. Valuation is also not demanding, at 36x ntm p/e I think it’s acceptable. I like the stock

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1963068248850608305?s=46

You just know that Trump is doom-watching this coverage on FOX or something, about to send out a biblical tweetstorm on his Truth Social

Restarted a $BMNR long @ $43.69 after our trims @ $63 - $69

It’s near 1x mNAV, and this is essentially a bet on Tom Lee’s ability to rally the crowd. I don’t have high hopes for this trade, but r/r for a long seems skewed as I can always cut quickly if 1x mNAV doesn’t hold. Let’s see where this goes.

Very high volatility stock, please manage your own risk. I may or may not announce my exit, which can be right after this message.

HUGE beat by AEO, stock +24% in AH TO $16.92

Reinstating FY guidance after removing it last quarter has eased the uncertainty, and also heavily boosted confidence. Guiding FY EBIT to $260mn mid range, vs St. of $176mn, nearly 50% higher! As expected, the
positive guide is driven by the Sydney Sweeney ad campaign in mgmt’s own words.

CMO: “The American Eagle Sydney Sweeney campaign was intended to be a brand and business reset, and it has. Let me be very clear, Sydney Sweeny sells great. She is a winner and in just 6 weeks, the campaign has generated unprecedented new customer acquisition. To be clear, that consumer acquisition is coming from every single county in the U.S. This momentum is national, and it is pervasive. We've experienced denim sell of items that Sydney has worn, we have strong positive traffic throughout this quarter. And as Jen mentioned, a staggering 40 billion impressions. But a brand campaign is not to be judged in just 1 day, 1 week or even 1 month, a brand campaign endures. We are off to a start beyond our wildest dreams”

Trimming 25% off our initial buy @ $11.8

You don’t always have to stay away from WSB favourites. If you think from first principles, what can be better for a fashion retail brand than… virality..?

Also note the words used by the CMO: “…campaign was intended to be a brand and business reset” corresponds to our point (1) in the quoted msg above.

$AEO

Fully exited $APP long @ $488 yesterday, +24% from average entry of $393.

Shifted more long allocation to the housing basket ($FICO @ $1515, $BLDR @ $137) in preparation of Trump admin’s move to “address the housing emergency”; ie lower mortgage rates, incentivise new home sales/builds. This will benefit companies that are most levered to mortgage volumes and building construction. Also noteworthy to remember that a majority of Trump’s NW is tied in RE, and I consider his family to be value-extractive.

Pretty insane to think that today, an average used home in US costs more than an average new home.

https://open.substack.com/pub/eigenmoomin/p/if-you-meet-the-singaporean-on-the?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Good read

Someone once told me: “if you have no opinions on things, then the world doesn’t need you”. Sums up this read. Life is all risk, and then you die

Cut $BMNR @ $43.51 for small loss, feels like the wind is out for DATs

Bought the dip on $BABA @ $131.57 USD after the small nosebleed today driven by the CCP’s words to curb stock speculation through cooling measures.

While net retail liquidity might be reduced by the measures, I’m of the view that this BABA sell-off is an opportunity. The announcement reads to me like “avoid PnDs, avoid ST thinking, think value and rational investments, think long-term…”, which would possibly be a net positive for BABA in terms of flows consolidating into scarce value LT assets.

Doubled the position on $SE the past 2 days, @ $178 - $185.6. Had some time to run the numbers and read through the transcripts, I think St is way too low on the outyear EPS

Dang should have held that $LULU short! Pretty dismal results; while there’s also a competition factor at play here, I view LULU’s print as a proof point for the general thesis of being short the consumer discretionary sector w a tilt to high-income consumers.

$NKE also getting slightly impacted from the negative read-through, -1.4%

Since the initiation of the short basket on Aug 18th, with the exception of FIVE, our core shorts (CAVA, COIN, SBUX, NKE) have outperformed our core longs (INTC, BABA, SE, BLDR, FICO, APP, AEO).

$RDDT is consolidating after the +70% post-earnings rise, so it doesn’t really count as underperforming imo despite appearing so on the chart due to the time period selected (from Aug 18th onwards).

Being able to generate alpha on both sides, in an up-only market environment, makes me very happy. Our shorts allow us to go “longer” on stocks that we love, due to the market risk hedge that it provides. I am VERY selective with my shorts in this environment.

(Pardon the pleb TV chart, I have no bougie BB subscription)

Tepid job report is giving wind to our housing basket; $BLDR +5% and $FICO +1.5%

Wrote quick summaries for both names above. Both companies have managed through one of the worst housing markets very well, hunkering down, consolidating and protecting margins as well as they can despite cratering top-lines. Hence I have conviction in their mgmts’ ability to outperform peers if the housing market booms, supported by Fed cuts & Trump admin policies.

Added $CRCL short @ $109.89

Had the right idea when the stock was at double the current price, but messed up the trade by covering too early. Shorts are so hard to play in this maniacal environment.

But now with hopium out the door for this stock, maybe it’d be a comfier short. Hopefully. Not a large size

Dip buy on $BABA 3 days ago is looking solid now. Release of their new model is driving the name +4% today in HK market. ADR @ $140.4 in US overnight market

Covered $SBUX short @ $84.1 for 10.8% gain. Still bearish on overpriced coffee but I think that there’s better short candidates.

Took a quick hour dab in Tom Lee’s new toy $OCTO. It ain’t much but it’s honest work. Out fully and not touching it again

It’s now trading at 40x mNAV lol… yes I get that they have Tom Lee and Dan Ives and they’re “treasuring” Sam Altman’s coin… but at what point does it get repetitive and honestly tiresome..?

However, $BMNR invested $20m @ $1+ into $OCTO. So I did long some $BMNR @ $44.2 just to see if the narrative that “BMNR turned $20m into $800m” catches on, even tho it’s all just paper profit.

Playing $BMNR with $OCTO profits here. If narrative doesn’t stick, I’ll cut quickly

Restarted $AVAV long @ $233.67

This name always gets volatile near earnings, and the integration of the Blue Halo acquisition may have put some investors on jitters. I think it’s sufficiently derisked for me to take a bet into print on Sep 10.

Not as large a position as previously

Added to short @ $111 - $115.3

If anyone has been following, a protocol accounting for ~7% of USDC supply ($5bn) is looking for proposals from alternative stablecoin issuers to incubate a “protocol-aligned” native stablecoin, which essentially means having the revenue from the reserve interest yield accrue back to the protocol, rather than the issuer.

4% risk-free interest of $5bn, ~$200mn in rev lost for $CRCL — if the switch is successfully executed. I think this trend will exacerbate — with successful protocols that own the users and their stablecoin deposits — try to cut out the rent seeker in the middle and earn that interest yield themselves.

The fundamental flaw of $CRCL, imo, is that they don’t own the end consumer and thus have to pay heavily for distribution to drive USDC supply growth. We see that with their CRCL <> COIN 50% rev share, we are seeing that now too with off-chain defi protocols.

$BABA +3% off announcement of the unveiling of a major business tomorrow. ADR @ $145.71 USD, close to setting a new 52-week high.

Rumours are that it’s linked to China digital map provider AMAP, maybe something similar to Dianping? $3690.HK -3% off this news