I expect most of these DATs to trade <1x mNAV by the end of the cycle. Don’t take 1x mNAV as the floor, as it could very well end up becoming the ceiling.

Many of these companies were poorly-run businesses with unsustainable models and shady mgmt teams before their pivot to DATs.

That said, I think the oppy is in buying <1x mNAV (say 0.5 - 0.7x mNAV), after a prolonged period of time-based capitulation, for a payout of 1x mNAV. Most of these DATs will likely end up selling the treasury assets (BTC, ETH, SOL or whatever other junk) to buyback their own stock, in a bid to keep their company listed/running. A trade for 2026. Could be the catalyst for the next crypto bear market.

$BABA continues to be a core asset in our semi-passive portfolio, with a strong set of results in the areas that matter, reported last week.

Cloud revenue accelerated to 26%, and AI-related revenue continues to ramp up massively (+triple digits%). There’s also news that they’ll be making their own chips to replace NVDA’s H20.

The negative is on China e-commerce, with the ongoing food delivery war hurting margins. However, the CEO sounds very confident in eventually dominating that scene with their GMV and margin guidance. Also, unlike JD/Meituan, where delivery/quick commerce is almost their entire business model, BABA has FCF from other core businesses (e.g., cloud, international) to stay sustainable in this war.

This senseless delivery war also can’t last forever, and if it stops, profits for all players should increase substantially. So that’s a plus point.

Building exposure to China AI was slightly controversial when we first revamped the portfolio a few months ago due to oppy cost (understandably so, as Chinese stocks never ever goes up, right..?).

But the thinking behind that basket was that the government can’t afford to lose in AI. And for them not to lose—or even to win—they have to enlist the help of the private sector, which means letting them and their shareholders profit too. Capitalism drives innovation, basically. Along those lines, China is too large a market not to have exposure to.

Sold the remaining 40% @ $79.34 RMB. Average weighted exit @ $69.6 RMB, +118% from entry @ $31.9 RMB. GG monster

Shifted the position that was just trimmed to long $9988.HK (BABA HK-listed shares) @ $136.34 HKD, to size up my $BABA position.

Honestly, maybe it could run up and I’ve exited too early, but I’m happy to lock it in.

I think the AI play in China will differ slightly from that of US. US cos want to develop AGI first, so they need the most compute, so infrastructure is a great play (data centers, cooling systems like $VRT and $002837.SZ).

China on the other hand, wants to use AI to enhance consumers’ life and win wallet share. Hence beneficiaries will probably be consumer-facing SW/apps that are able to integrate and leverage AI well. Idk, just an offhand thought.

Just in time for a couple of upgrades from JPM & Jefferies on $BABA / $9988.HK to $170 & $160 respectively.

Huge clearing event from yesterday’s federal decision to not break up GOOG’s core businesses, allowing them to keep Chrome and also to continue paying for product distribution; i.e. to be a (but not exclusive) search engine in AAPL’s Safari. A significant legal overhang is removed, stock is +30% from our initial entry and back at ATH @ $225.8.

When we first entered, the narrative was overwhelmingly bearish, and all about search being replaced, GOOG being broken up. Now it’s all about GOOG’s strong cloud growth, high fcf, and its inherent data and AI HW/SW capabilities. Funny how narratives can switch 180 in 3 months. A comfy hold nonetheless.

Started a long in $SE @ $180 yesterday

Always a fan of the business, I think Forrest Li is a great leader. Was actually my first ever pitch in 2022 for a job interview; I pitched $SE as “a call option on SEA’s growth” at $40. Lots have obviously changed since then. E-commerce has been an absolute monster, taking the dominant share in most SEA markets, and a very strong contender to $MELI in Brazil. Switching cost is also very high (listing and relisting assortments, sorting out logistics, running ads etc), and merchants have to be on the platform with the most customers. There’s also still runway for growth, given the low e-comm penetration in SEA.

What’s overlooked is how much SE has built out their 1st party logistics (SPX Express) to complement their e-comm since 2022, which at its current scale is already very impressive. Last-mile delivery is a very difficult issue especially in developing regions, and the hope is that SPX express can eventually allow them to reach cost advantage (and pass that down to strapped consumers to gain wallet share), and also create a barrier of entry/moat vs other e-comm-only players.

Their fintech arm (Monee) is also tearing, and the growth is being driven in large part by a ready customer base derived from their e-comm arm. On-shopee BNPL is already penetrating 15% of Shopee’s GMV, around $4bn USD of loans, or around 65% of Monee’s total outstanding loans. There’s PMF because of the demographics in SEA, with Monee is enabling e-Comm access to cash-strapped consumers that are likely also unbanked. NPL ratio is low at 1.1%, relative to the demographics. Needless to say, EBITDA margins are very high with fintech, given an est. 20-35% APR for BNPL loans.

I’m also bullish on SEA’s emergence in the next decade, which acts as a macro tailwind. Valuation is also not demanding, at 36x ntm p/e I think it’s acceptable. I like the stock

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1963068248850608305?s=46

You just know that Trump is doom-watching this coverage on FOX or something, about to send out a biblical tweetstorm on his Truth Social

Restarted a $BMNR long @ $43.69 after our trims @ $63 - $69

It’s near 1x mNAV, and this is essentially a bet on Tom Lee’s ability to rally the crowd. I don’t have high hopes for this trade, but r/r for a long seems skewed as I can always cut quickly if 1x mNAV doesn’t hold. Let’s see where this goes.

Very high volatility stock, please manage your own risk. I may or may not announce my exit, which can be right after this message.

HUGE beat by AEO, stock +24% in AH TO $16.92

Reinstating FY guidance after removing it last quarter has eased the uncertainty, and also heavily boosted confidence. Guiding FY EBIT to $260mn mid range, vs St. of $176mn, nearly 50% higher! As expected, the
positive guide is driven by the Sydney Sweeney ad campaign in mgmt’s own words.

CMO: “The American Eagle Sydney Sweeney campaign was intended to be a brand and business reset, and it has. Let me be very clear, Sydney Sweeny sells great. She is a winner and in just 6 weeks, the campaign has generated unprecedented new customer acquisition. To be clear, that consumer acquisition is coming from every single county in the U.S. This momentum is national, and it is pervasive. We've experienced denim sell of items that Sydney has worn, we have strong positive traffic throughout this quarter. And as Jen mentioned, a staggering 40 billion impressions. But a brand campaign is not to be judged in just 1 day, 1 week or even 1 month, a brand campaign endures. We are off to a start beyond our wildest dreams”

Trimming 25% off our initial buy @ $11.8

You don’t always have to stay away from WSB favourites. If you think from first principles, what can be better for a fashion retail brand than… virality..?

Also note the words used by the CMO: “…campaign was intended to be a brand and business reset” corresponds to our point (1) in the quoted msg above.

$AEO

Fully exited $APP long @ $488 yesterday, +24% from average entry of $393.

Shifted more long allocation to the housing basket ($FICO @ $1515, $BLDR @ $137) in preparation of Trump admin’s move to “address the housing emergency”; ie lower mortgage rates, incentivise new home sales/builds. This will benefit companies that are most levered to mortgage volumes and building construction. Also noteworthy to remember that a majority of Trump’s NW is tied in RE, and I consider his family to be value-extractive.

Pretty insane to think that today, an average used home in US costs more than an average new home.

https://open.substack.com/pub/eigenmoomin/p/if-you-meet-the-singaporean-on-the?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Good read

Someone once told me: “if you have no opinions on things, then the world doesn’t need you”. Sums up this read. Life is all risk, and then you die

Cut $BMNR @ $43.51 for small loss, feels like the wind is out for DATs

Bought the dip on $BABA @ $131.57 USD after the small nosebleed today driven by the CCP’s words to curb stock speculation through cooling measures.

While net retail liquidity might be reduced by the measures, I’m of the view that this BABA sell-off is an opportunity. The announcement reads to me like “avoid PnDs, avoid ST thinking, think value and rational investments, think long-term…”, which would possibly be a net positive for BABA in terms of flows consolidating into scarce value LT assets.

Doubled the position on $SE the past 2 days, @ $178 - $185.6. Had some time to run the numbers and read through the transcripts, I think St is way too low on the outyear EPS

Dang should have held that $LULU short! Pretty dismal results; while there’s also a competition factor at play here, I view LULU’s print as a proof point for the general thesis of being short the consumer discretionary sector w a tilt to high-income consumers.

$NKE also getting slightly impacted from the negative read-through, -1.4%

Since the initiation of the short basket on Aug 18th, with the exception of FIVE, our core shorts (CAVA, COIN, SBUX, NKE) have outperformed our core longs (INTC, BABA, SE, BLDR, FICO, APP, AEO).

$RDDT is consolidating after the +70% post-earnings rise, so it doesn’t really count as underperforming imo despite appearing so on the chart due to the time period selected (from Aug 18th onwards).

Being able to generate alpha on both sides, in an up-only market environment, makes me very happy. Our shorts allow us to go “longer” on stocks that we love, due to the market risk hedge that it provides. I am VERY selective with my shorts in this environment.

(Pardon the pleb TV chart, I have no bougie BB subscription)

Tepid job report is giving wind to our housing basket; $BLDR +5% and $FICO +1.5%

Wrote quick summaries for both names above. Both companies have managed through one of the worst housing markets very well, hunkering down, consolidating and protecting margins as well as they can despite cratering top-lines. Hence I have conviction in their mgmts’ ability to outperform peers if the housing market booms, supported by Fed cuts & Trump admin policies.

Added $CRCL short @ $109.89

Had the right idea when the stock was at double the current price, but messed up the trade by covering too early. Shorts are so hard to play in this maniacal environment.

But now with hopium out the door for this stock, maybe it’d be a comfier short. Hopefully. Not a large size

Dip buy on $BABA 3 days ago is looking solid now. Release of their new model is driving the name +4% today in HK market. ADR @ $140.4 in US overnight market