As you can see I do change my mind quite frequently. I’m a subscriber to the “strong convictions loosely held” philosophy.

The distilled bull case for a long time for $APP was that they’ve discovered some secret sauce in advertising similar to the walled gardens in $GOOG and $META, and combined with the amount of time people spent on their phones vs other devices, could one day propel $APP to the big boy gang.

I don’t know, but if $U prints a few exemplary quarters from here, then it might prove that its not some secret sauce as much as it’s just better ads matching driven by AI <> data, and that it’s not really a winner take all industry. That’d set the $APP bull case back a fair bit unless their progress on e-commerce onboarding outweighs that. So on a r/r basis, I have both but my $U position is much larger than $APP.

Confirmed that USG is taking a 10% stake in Intel. It’s not new money but a conversion of previous awarded but undistributed grants.

I can see an $ASML situation where customers come together to invest and make $INTC workable. Whats a billy$ to NVDA, to AAPL, AMD — if it secures them 1) favour with the current admin, 2) secures US-based chip manufacturing volume in the future.

For those that are unfamiliar with semiconductor lore, back in 2012, TSMC, INTC, and Samsung jointly invested in ASML for a 23% stake, to help ASML fast-track EUV lithography development — which then allowed these foundries to produce leading edge chips. Why can’t this situation happen again now with INTC, now in the interest of securing and building US chip production capability? I think it’s likely.

We also know Trump admin has stated they’re not going to run the business operationally. We know Trump would love to brag about how his “$10b investment deal” in INTC produced a 5x ROI for the U.S. taxpayers. The only way they can help, and can achieve that ROI, is to help INTC secure customers. I think this point is significantly more important than the notional $ value of any deals.

Added $NKE @ $79.4 and $COIN @ $311.76 to the short basket

In its current state, $COIN is a really bad business imo. Not sure how a company can spend a decade trailblazing an entire industry and yet end up with such poor UI/UX and user security. Just take a look at their recent perps offering; almost nil traction. I think the market affords too much leeway to this company because of the incumbency status. They really ought to shake up their product teams or HOOD will steal their bread.

At 52x p/e alongside their stagnancy, the r/r for a short is attractive. I’m treating it as a hedge to my external crypto exposure.

Out of $TEM long @ $76.95

I still think that they have a strong bull case given AI’s importance in oncology and precision medicine, and how integrated TEM already is with academics and medical institutions.

But this mgmt team is giving me poor vibes (read spruce point short report for more) and so I am sticking with my gut on this given how dependent the bull case is on mgmt execution. Locking in the 20% gain from initial entry and I’m cool if I miss the multibagger on this.

$AEO is doing a great job staying in the spotlight. Earnings next week. Results from recent ad campaigns shouldn’t be reflected in Q2 numbers but can be inferred from mgmt’s full year guidance / Q3 commentary (company doesn’t guide quarterly).

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/travis-kelce-american-eagle-collection-taylor-swift-1236498416/

$FIVE reported yesterday a blowout quarter, stock +1.45% to $146.5. Seems like mgmt did a successful job in resetting expectations.

However, H2 guidance implies a significant deceleration in same store sales % alongside margin compression. Hence, the stock didn’t react as it should on the blowout Q.

Staying short as I continue to think it’s a fundamentally challenged business, and will need more proof points to validate the turnaround. Anyway, I treat my shorts as a hedge that allows me to go “longer”. As long as my longs outperform my shorts I’m happy.

$9961.HK or $TCOM reported a beautiful set of results yesterday; double beats on revenue and EPS. Also announced a $5b share repurchase program. Stock +8% to $555HKD or $70.98 respectively.

Many rode this name on a China revenge travel trade and sold it after the easy part of the move was captured in Jan 25 — not wanting to take on the risk of Trip’s international expansion. That was a good move, though Trip’s intl expansion — into Asia and Europe — is finally coming to fruition now. Travel platforms are scale and data businesses, and increased volume create positive flywheels.

The $5b buyback program is a significant vote of confidence from the mgmt in Trip’s future. You need to understand that it’s extremely hard to get the company to part with their cold hard cash, especially with what they went through during COVID.

Am thinking if I should also put on a short leg on $BKNG $EXPE; I think it’s a matter of time that Trip eats their bread. Will see. Try Trip, and then try Booking.com — and you might understand.

How is $COIN not a generational short? Now, besides having to fend off competition in the U.S., they’re also losing their U.S. regulatory moat and have to fight for share with offshore exchanges that have 10x better UI/UX and which are not constrained by regulations. Would be funny if their regulatory moat actually turns into an impediment.

If there are COIN bulls here, would love to hear your views!

CFTC TO CREATE PATHWAY FOR US CITIZENS TO TRADE ON OFFSHORE EXCHANGES SUCH AS BINANCE, BYBiT, OKX

Shorted more $FIVE @ $146.66 and $COIN @ $305

I expect most of these DATs to trade <1x mNAV by the end of the cycle. Don’t take 1x mNAV as the floor, as it could very well end up becoming the ceiling.

Many of these companies were poorly-run businesses with unsustainable models and shady mgmt teams before their pivot to DATs.

That said, I think the oppy is in buying <1x mNAV (say 0.5 - 0.7x mNAV), after a prolonged period of time-based capitulation, for a payout of 1x mNAV. Most of these DATs will likely end up selling the treasury assets (BTC, ETH, SOL or whatever other junk) to buyback their own stock, in a bid to keep their company listed/running. A trade for 2026. Could be the catalyst for the next crypto bear market.

$BABA continues to be a core asset in our semi-passive portfolio, with a strong set of results in the areas that matter, reported last week.

Cloud revenue accelerated to 26%, and AI-related revenue continues to ramp up massively (+triple digits%). There’s also news that they’ll be making their own chips to replace NVDA’s H20.

The negative is on China e-commerce, with the ongoing food delivery war hurting margins. However, the CEO sounds very confident in eventually dominating that scene with their GMV and margin guidance. Also, unlike JD/Meituan, where delivery/quick commerce is almost their entire business model, BABA has FCF from other core businesses (e.g., cloud, international) to stay sustainable in this war.

This senseless delivery war also can’t last forever, and if it stops, profits for all players should increase substantially. So that’s a plus point.

Building exposure to China AI was slightly controversial when we first revamped the portfolio a few months ago due to oppy cost (understandably so, as Chinese stocks never ever goes up, right..?).

But the thinking behind that basket was that the government can’t afford to lose in AI. And for them not to lose—or even to win—they have to enlist the help of the private sector, which means letting them and their shareholders profit too. Capitalism drives innovation, basically. Along those lines, China is too large a market not to have exposure to.

Sold the remaining 40% @ $79.34 RMB. Average weighted exit @ $69.6 RMB, +118% from entry @ $31.9 RMB. GG monster

Shifted the position that was just trimmed to long $9988.HK (BABA HK-listed shares) @ $136.34 HKD, to size up my $BABA position.

Honestly, maybe it could run up and I’ve exited too early, but I’m happy to lock it in.

I think the AI play in China will differ slightly from that of US. US cos want to develop AGI first, so they need the most compute, so infrastructure is a great play (data centers, cooling systems like $VRT and $002837.SZ).

China on the other hand, wants to use AI to enhance consumers’ life and win wallet share. Hence beneficiaries will probably be consumer-facing SW/apps that are able to integrate and leverage AI well. Idk, just an offhand thought.

Just in time for a couple of upgrades from JPM & Jefferies on $BABA / $9988.HK to $170 & $160 respectively.

Huge clearing event from yesterday’s federal decision to not break up GOOG’s core businesses, allowing them to keep Chrome and also to continue paying for product distribution; i.e. to be a (but not exclusive) search engine in AAPL’s Safari. A significant legal overhang is removed, stock is +30% from our initial entry and back at ATH @ $225.8.

When we first entered, the narrative was overwhelmingly bearish, and all about search being replaced, GOOG being broken up. Now it’s all about GOOG’s strong cloud growth, high fcf, and its inherent data and AI HW/SW capabilities. Funny how narratives can switch 180 in 3 months. A comfy hold nonetheless.

Started a long in $SE @ $180 yesterday

Always a fan of the business, I think Forrest Li is a great leader. Was actually my first ever pitch in 2022 for a job interview; I pitched $SE as “a call option on SEA’s growth” at $40. Lots have obviously changed since then. E-commerce has been an absolute monster, taking the dominant share in most SEA markets, and a very strong contender to $MELI in Brazil. Switching cost is also very high (listing and relisting assortments, sorting out logistics, running ads etc), and merchants have to be on the platform with the most customers. There’s also still runway for growth, given the low e-comm penetration in SEA.

What’s overlooked is how much SE has built out their 1st party logistics (SPX Express) to complement their e-comm since 2022, which at its current scale is already very impressive. Last-mile delivery is a very difficult issue especially in developing regions, and the hope is that SPX express can eventually allow them to reach cost advantage (and pass that down to strapped consumers to gain wallet share), and also create a barrier of entry/moat vs other e-comm-only players.

Their fintech arm (Monee) is also tearing, and the growth is being driven in large part by a ready customer base derived from their e-comm arm. On-shopee BNPL is already penetrating 15% of Shopee’s GMV, around $4bn USD of loans, or around 65% of Monee’s total outstanding loans. There’s PMF because of the demographics in SEA, with Monee is enabling e-Comm access to cash-strapped consumers that are likely also unbanked. NPL ratio is low at 1.1%, relative to the demographics. Needless to say, EBITDA margins are very high with fintech, given an est. 20-35% APR for BNPL loans.

I’m also bullish on SEA’s emergence in the next decade, which acts as a macro tailwind. Valuation is also not demanding, at 36x ntm p/e I think it’s acceptable. I like the stock

https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1963068248850608305?s=46

You just know that Trump is doom-watching this coverage on FOX or something, about to send out a biblical tweetstorm on his Truth Social

Restarted a $BMNR long @ $43.69 after our trims @ $63 - $69

It’s near 1x mNAV, and this is essentially a bet on Tom Lee’s ability to rally the crowd. I don’t have high hopes for this trade, but r/r for a long seems skewed as I can always cut quickly if 1x mNAV doesn’t hold. Let’s see where this goes.

Very high volatility stock, please manage your own risk. I may or may not announce my exit, which can be right after this message.