Closed $LULU short @ $201 for 1% loss. On hindsight it’s a little too beaten down for my liking. Maybe we’ll get to reshort higher, maybe not. Am fine with me either ways.
Pivot Point Capital
INTC is my second-largest position. Some explanation on why I saw, and still see, $INTC as one of the most asymmetric setups of the year. What Intel needs: (1) money to build its Ohio fab — >$30b per fab (2) customer commitments to allow these fabs to break…
Another $2b into the pot from a Stargate member, and not even at that large of a discount to market price. Also opens the door (low probability but more likely now) to ARM chip commits maybe?
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed some $U @ $37.6 - $37.72 for 15% gain. Don’t like having a large position in a turnaround position in a winner takes all industry (referencing $APP)
Re-added back to $U with the Jackson Hole dip @ $35.3-$35.7
On second thoughts, the bar is set very low for $U now vs someone more established like $APP. Given that we’re in the early phases of Vector (the beta stage with restricted access for the masses), it is likely much easier for Unity to gain incremental ROAS and ad share, not to forget the margin expansion from the operating leverage. We saw this blue sky scenario played out with $APP in 2023 when they enhanced Axon 1 to Axon 2. Corroborates with some expert calls which indicate that their mobile ad spend with Unity is growing at a higher pace than their spend with $APP.
Another point I don’t like is that $APP insiders are dumping a lot of stock over the past few months. There’s a few $APP bear cases that could explain the dumping (peak margins, difficulty in scaling ROAS, e-commerce is a different landscape to play in vs mobile gaming etc etc). Hence did trim some $APP around $435-$440 and allocated that size to Unity at 1/10 the market cap.
On second thoughts, the bar is set very low for $U now vs someone more established like $APP. Given that we’re in the early phases of Vector (the beta stage with restricted access for the masses), it is likely much easier for Unity to gain incremental ROAS and ad share, not to forget the margin expansion from the operating leverage. We saw this blue sky scenario played out with $APP in 2023 when they enhanced Axon 1 to Axon 2. Corroborates with some expert calls which indicate that their mobile ad spend with Unity is growing at a higher pace than their spend with $APP.
Another point I don’t like is that $APP insiders are dumping a lot of stock over the past few months. There’s a few $APP bear cases that could explain the dumping (peak margins, difficulty in scaling ROAS, e-commerce is a different landscape to play in vs mobile gaming etc etc). Hence did trim some $APP around $435-$440 and allocated that size to Unity at 1/10 the market cap.
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed some $U @ $37.6 - $37.72 for 15% gain. Don’t like having a large position in a turnaround position in a winner takes all industry (referencing $APP)
As you can see I do change my mind quite frequently. I’m a subscriber to the “strong convictions loosely held” philosophy.
The distilled bull case for a long time for $APP was that they’ve discovered some secret sauce in advertising similar to the walled gardens in $GOOG and $META, and combined with the amount of time people spent on their phones vs other devices, could one day propel $APP to the big boy gang.
I don’t know, but if $U prints a few exemplary quarters from here, then it might prove that its not some secret sauce as much as it’s just better ads matching driven by AI <> data, and that it’s not really a winner take all industry. That’d set the $APP bull case back a fair bit unless their progress on e-commerce onboarding outweighs that. So on a r/r basis, I have both but my $U position is much larger than $APP.
The distilled bull case for a long time for $APP was that they’ve discovered some secret sauce in advertising similar to the walled gardens in $GOOG and $META, and combined with the amount of time people spent on their phones vs other devices, could one day propel $APP to the big boy gang.
I don’t know, but if $U prints a few exemplary quarters from here, then it might prove that its not some secret sauce as much as it’s just better ads matching driven by AI <> data, and that it’s not really a winner take all industry. That’d set the $APP bull case back a fair bit unless their progress on e-commerce onboarding outweighs that. So on a r/r basis, I have both but my $U position is much larger than $APP.
Pivot Point Capital
INTC is my second-largest position. Some explanation on why I saw, and still see, $INTC as one of the most asymmetric setups of the year. What Intel needs: (1) money to build its Ohio fab — >$30b per fab (2) customer commitments to allow these fabs to break…
Confirmed that USG is taking a 10% stake in Intel. It’s not new money but a conversion of previous awarded but undistributed grants.
I can see an $ASML situation where customers come together to invest and make $INTC workable. Whats a billy$ to NVDA, to AAPL, AMD — if it secures them 1) favour with the current admin, 2) secures US-based chip manufacturing volume in the future.
For those that are unfamiliar with semiconductor lore, back in 2012, TSMC, INTC, and Samsung jointly invested in ASML for a 23% stake, to help ASML fast-track EUV lithography development — which then allowed these foundries to produce leading edge chips. Why can’t this situation happen again now with INTC, now in the interest of securing and building US chip production capability? I think it’s likely.
We also know Trump admin has stated they’re not going to run the business operationally. We know Trump would love to brag about how his “$10b investment deal” in INTC produced a 5x ROI for the U.S. taxpayers. The only way they can help, and can achieve that ROI, is to help INTC secure customers. I think this point is significantly more important than the notional $ value of any deals.
I can see an $ASML situation where customers come together to invest and make $INTC workable. Whats a billy$ to NVDA, to AAPL, AMD — if it secures them 1) favour with the current admin, 2) secures US-based chip manufacturing volume in the future.
For those that are unfamiliar with semiconductor lore, back in 2012, TSMC, INTC, and Samsung jointly invested in ASML for a 23% stake, to help ASML fast-track EUV lithography development — which then allowed these foundries to produce leading edge chips. Why can’t this situation happen again now with INTC, now in the interest of securing and building US chip production capability? I think it’s likely.
We also know Trump admin has stated they’re not going to run the business operationally. We know Trump would love to brag about how his “$10b investment deal” in INTC produced a 5x ROI for the U.S. taxpayers. The only way they can help, and can achieve that ROI, is to help INTC secure customers. I think this point is significantly more important than the notional $ value of any deals.
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $CAVA short @ $67.69
Added $NKE @ $79.4 and $COIN @ $311.76 to the short basket
In its current state, $COIN is a really bad business imo. Not sure how a company can spend a decade trailblazing an entire industry and yet end up with such poor UI/UX and user security. Just take a look at their recent perps offering; almost nil traction. I think the market affords too much leeway to this company because of the incumbency status. They really ought to shake up their product teams or HOOD will steal their bread.
At 52x p/e alongside their stagnancy, the r/r for a short is attractive. I’m treating it as a hedge to my external crypto exposure.
In its current state, $COIN is a really bad business imo. Not sure how a company can spend a decade trailblazing an entire industry and yet end up with such poor UI/UX and user security. Just take a look at their recent perps offering; almost nil traction. I think the market affords too much leeway to this company because of the incumbency status. They really ought to shake up their product teams or HOOD will steal their bread.
At 52x p/e alongside their stagnancy, the r/r for a short is attractive. I’m treating it as a hedge to my external crypto exposure.
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Pivot Point Capital
Re-entered $TEM @ $63.88 after their recent print; solid print with progress made in their platform expansion into medical centres. Thesis is similar to what I wrote last year; I think this will be a really strong AI beneficiary.
Out of $TEM long @ $76.95
I still think that they have a strong bull case given AI’s importance in oncology and precision medicine, and how integrated TEM already is with academics and medical institutions.
But this mgmt team is giving me poor vibes (read spruce point short report for more) and so I am sticking with my gut on this given how dependent the bull case is on mgmt execution. Locking in the 20% gain from initial entry and I’m cool if I miss the multibagger on this.
I still think that they have a strong bull case given AI’s importance in oncology and precision medicine, and how integrated TEM already is with academics and medical institutions.
But this mgmt team is giving me poor vibes (read spruce point short report for more) and so I am sticking with my gut on this given how dependent the bull case is on mgmt execution. Locking in the 20% gain from initial entry and I’m cool if I miss the multibagger on this.
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $AEO @ $11.8. Small position. Will cut quickly if the momentum dies down as retailers are too stable and slow for me. Stock is up because WSB caught wind of the Sydney Sweeney campaign. Of all of the retail speculative stuff recently, this one at least…
$AEO is doing a great job staying in the spotlight. Earnings next week. Results from recent ad campaigns shouldn’t be reflected in Q2 numbers but can be inferred from mgmt’s full year guidance / Q3 commentary (company doesn’t guide quarterly).
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/travis-kelce-american-eagle-collection-taylor-swift-1236498416/
https://variety.com/2025/film/news/travis-kelce-american-eagle-collection-taylor-swift-1236498416/
Variety
Travis Kelce Launches American Eagle Collection After Taylor Swift Engagement
Travis Kelce, newly engaged to Taylor Swift, has launched a new clothing collection with American Eagle.
$FIVE reported yesterday a blowout quarter, stock +1.45% to $146.5. Seems like mgmt did a successful job in resetting expectations.
However, H2 guidance implies a significant deceleration in same store sales % alongside margin compression. Hence, the stock didn’t react as it should on the blowout Q.
Staying short as I continue to think it’s a fundamentally challenged business, and will need more proof points to validate the turnaround. Anyway, I treat my shorts as a hedge that allows me to go “longer”. As long as my longs outperform my shorts I’m happy.
However, H2 guidance implies a significant deceleration in same store sales % alongside margin compression. Hence, the stock didn’t react as it should on the blowout Q.
Staying short as I continue to think it’s a fundamentally challenged business, and will need more proof points to validate the turnaround. Anyway, I treat my shorts as a hedge that allows me to go “longer”. As long as my longs outperform my shorts I’m happy.
Pivot Point Capital
Added $9961.HK (Trip.com) @ $484.8. They’re going to be a big beneficiary as China tourism gradually returns, and they’re also taking share in intl market. A personal anecdote: These days I don’t mind paying slightly more to book my flights on Trip, as everything…
$9961.HK or $TCOM reported a beautiful set of results yesterday; double beats on revenue and EPS. Also announced a $5b share repurchase program. Stock +8% to $555HKD or $70.98 respectively.
Many rode this name on a China revenge travel trade and sold it after the easy part of the move was captured in Jan 25 — not wanting to take on the risk of Trip’s international expansion. That was a good move, though Trip’s intl expansion — into Asia and Europe — is finally coming to fruition now. Travel platforms are scale and data businesses, and increased volume create positive flywheels.
The $5b buyback program is a significant vote of confidence from the mgmt in Trip’s future. You need to understand that it’s extremely hard to get the company to part with their cold hard cash, especially with what they went through during COVID.
Am thinking if I should also put on a short leg on $BKNG $EXPE; I think it’s a matter of time that Trip eats their bread. Will see. Try Trip, and then try Booking.com — and you might understand.
Many rode this name on a China revenge travel trade and sold it after the easy part of the move was captured in Jan 25 — not wanting to take on the risk of Trip’s international expansion. That was a good move, though Trip’s intl expansion — into Asia and Europe — is finally coming to fruition now. Travel platforms are scale and data businesses, and increased volume create positive flywheels.
The $5b buyback program is a significant vote of confidence from the mgmt in Trip’s future. You need to understand that it’s extremely hard to get the company to part with their cold hard cash, especially with what they went through during COVID.
Am thinking if I should also put on a short leg on $BKNG $EXPE; I think it’s a matter of time that Trip eats their bread. Will see. Try Trip, and then try Booking.com — and you might understand.
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Pivot Point Capital
Some final touches; (1) Replacing GLXY with RDDT, (2) Switching TER into compounders, exchanging positions with TCOM, (3) Adding BMNR in moonshots Revised Allocation 60% Long-term Compounders: CDNS, GOOG, TER, NET, BABA 30% <1 year Event Trades: RDDT, AVAV…
The semi-passive portfolio has outperformed significantly over the past month (+20.6%, S&P +2%, NDX +2.8%), excluding the impact of leverage.
China AI theme was a huge contributor to returns, alongside Adtech/AI SW theme. Changing things up a little as some of these names have ran up quite significantly (002837.SZ), or which I think the reward no longer justifies the risk (BMNR).
Making the following changes:
Removal/additions
(1) remove $AVAV, add $APP in its position
(2) remove $BMNR, add $AAOI in its position
(3) remove $CDNS, add $FICO in its position
(4) remove $002837.SZ from event trades
(5) add $AEO into moonshots
Allocation changes
(1) move $RDDT size up into LT compounders, and $NET size down into event trades
(2) move $U size up into event trades
China AI theme was a huge contributor to returns, alongside Adtech/AI SW theme. Changing things up a little as some of these names have ran up quite significantly (002837.SZ), or which I think the reward no longer justifies the risk (BMNR).
Making the following changes:
Removal/additions
(1) remove $AVAV, add $APP in its position
(2) remove $BMNR, add $AAOI in its position
(3) remove $CDNS, add $FICO in its position
(4) remove $002837.SZ from event trades
(5) add $AEO into moonshots
Allocation changes
(1) move $RDDT size up into LT compounders, and $NET size down into event trades
(2) move $U size up into event trades
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How is $COIN not a generational short? Now, besides having to fend off competition in the U.S., they’re also losing their U.S. regulatory moat and have to fight for share with offshore exchanges that have 10x better UI/UX and which are not constrained by regulations. Would be funny if their regulatory moat actually turns into an impediment.
If there are COIN bulls here, would love to hear your views!
If there are COIN bulls here, would love to hear your views!
Forwarded from Tree News (Tree News Bot)
CFTC TO CREATE PATHWAY FOR US CITIZENS TO TRADE ON OFFSHORE EXCHANGES SUCH AS BINANCE, BYBiT, OKX
Pivot Point Capital
Added $NKE @ $79.4 and $COIN @ $311.76 to the short basket In its current state, $COIN is a really bad business imo. Not sure how a company can spend a decade trailblazing an entire industry and yet end up with such poor UI/UX and user security. Just take…
Shorted more $FIVE @ $146.66 and $COIN @ $305
Pivot Point Capital
I think a stock offering is coming and how the stock reacts will be impt to whether we keep holding. $BMNR mNAV has finally expanded to ~1.83x from ~1.3x. One thing most people get wrong about these DATs are that you want to buy it when mNAV is trending up…
I expect most of these DATs to trade <1x mNAV by the end of the cycle. Don’t take 1x mNAV as the floor, as it could very well end up becoming the ceiling.
Many of these companies were poorly-run businesses with unsustainable models and shady mgmt teams before their pivot to DATs.
That said, I think the oppy is in buying <1x mNAV (say 0.5 - 0.7x mNAV), after a prolonged period of time-based capitulation, for a payout of 1x mNAV. Most of these DATs will likely end up selling the treasury assets (BTC, ETH, SOL or whatever other junk) to buyback their own stock, in a bid to keep their company listed/running. A trade for 2026. Could be the catalyst for the next crypto bear market.
Many of these companies were poorly-run businesses with unsustainable models and shady mgmt teams before their pivot to DATs.
That said, I think the oppy is in buying <1x mNAV (say 0.5 - 0.7x mNAV), after a prolonged period of time-based capitulation, for a payout of 1x mNAV. Most of these DATs will likely end up selling the treasury assets (BTC, ETH, SOL or whatever other junk) to buyback their own stock, in a bid to keep their company listed/running. A trade for 2026. Could be the catalyst for the next crypto bear market.
Pivot Point Capital
The semi-passive portfolio has outperformed significantly over the past month (+20.6%, S&P +2%, NDX +2.8%), excluding the impact of leverage. China AI theme was a huge contributor to returns, alongside Adtech/AI SW theme. Changing things up a little as some…
$BABA continues to be a core asset in our semi-passive portfolio, with a strong set of results in the areas that matter, reported last week.
Cloud revenue accelerated to 26%, and AI-related revenue continues to ramp up massively (+triple digits%). There’s also news that they’ll be making their own chips to replace NVDA’s H20.
The negative is on China e-commerce, with the ongoing food delivery war hurting margins. However, the CEO sounds very confident in eventually dominating that scene with their GMV and margin guidance. Also, unlike JD/Meituan, where delivery/quick commerce is almost their entire business model, BABA has FCF from other core businesses (e.g., cloud, international) to stay sustainable in this war.
This senseless delivery war also can’t last forever, and if it stops, profits for all players should increase substantially. So that’s a plus point.
Building exposure to China AI was slightly controversial when we first revamped the portfolio a few months ago due to oppy cost (understandably so, as Chinese stocks never ever goes up, right..?).
But the thinking behind that basket was that the government can’t afford to lose in AI. And for them not to lose—or even to win—they have to enlist the help of the private sector, which means letting them and their shareholders profit too. Capitalism drives innovation, basically. Along those lines, China is too large a market not to have exposure to.
Cloud revenue accelerated to 26%, and AI-related revenue continues to ramp up massively (+triple digits%). There’s also news that they’ll be making their own chips to replace NVDA’s H20.
The negative is on China e-commerce, with the ongoing food delivery war hurting margins. However, the CEO sounds very confident in eventually dominating that scene with their GMV and margin guidance. Also, unlike JD/Meituan, where delivery/quick commerce is almost their entire business model, BABA has FCF from other core businesses (e.g., cloud, international) to stay sustainable in this war.
This senseless delivery war also can’t last forever, and if it stops, profits for all players should increase substantially. So that’s a plus point.
Building exposure to China AI was slightly controversial when we first revamped the portfolio a few months ago due to oppy cost (understandably so, as Chinese stocks never ever goes up, right..?).
But the thinking behind that basket was that the government can’t afford to lose in AI. And for them not to lose—or even to win—they have to enlist the help of the private sector, which means letting them and their shareholders profit too. Capitalism drives innovation, basically. Along those lines, China is too large a market not to have exposure to.
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Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed another 30% of original position here @ $69 RMB, +116% from initial buy. Banked enough profit on the stock so keeping the remaining 40% as a moonshot
Sold the remaining 40% @ $79.34 RMB. Average weighted exit @ $69.6 RMB, +118% from entry @ $31.9 RMB. GG monster
Shifted the position that was just trimmed to long $9988.HK (BABA HK-listed shares) @ $136.34 HKD, to size up my $BABA position.
Shifted the position that was just trimmed to long $9988.HK (BABA HK-listed shares) @ $136.34 HKD, to size up my $BABA position.
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Pivot Point Capital
Sold the remaining 40% @ $79.34 RMB. Average weighted exit @ $69.6 RMB, +118% from entry @ $31.9 RMB. GG monster Shifted the position that was just trimmed to long $9988.HK (BABA HK-listed shares) @ $136.34 HKD, to size up my $BABA position.
Honestly, maybe it could run up and I’ve exited too early, but I’m happy to lock it in.
I think the AI play in China will differ slightly from that of US. US cos want to develop AGI first, so they need the most compute, so infrastructure is a great play (data centers, cooling systems like $VRT and $002837.SZ).
China on the other hand, wants to use AI to enhance consumers’ life and win wallet share. Hence beneficiaries will probably be consumer-facing SW/apps that are able to integrate and leverage AI well. Idk, just an offhand thought.
I think the AI play in China will differ slightly from that of US. US cos want to develop AGI first, so they need the most compute, so infrastructure is a great play (data centers, cooling systems like $VRT and $002837.SZ).
China on the other hand, wants to use AI to enhance consumers’ life and win wallet share. Hence beneficiaries will probably be consumer-facing SW/apps that are able to integrate and leverage AI well. Idk, just an offhand thought.
Pivot Point Capital
Sold the remaining 40% @ $79.34 RMB. Average weighted exit @ $69.6 RMB, +118% from entry @ $31.9 RMB. GG monster Shifted the position that was just trimmed to long $9988.HK (BABA HK-listed shares) @ $136.34 HKD, to size up my $BABA position.
Just in time for a couple of upgrades from JPM & Jefferies on $BABA / $9988.HK to $170 & $160 respectively.