Trimming 30% of $002837.SEHKZE @ $57.25 RMB, +80% from initial buy @ $31.9 RMB mentioned above.

In recent days it’s likely buoyed by news of China discouraging use of H20. The East <> West separation of AI supply chain is inevitable imo; as AI becomes a national security issue, independence in the entire vertical chain would be paramount (fab, fabless, data centres, upstream softwares etc). Think of $002837.SEHKZE as the Chinese $VRT, a pure-play liquid cooling company that would be in demand as China’s data center buildout progresses.

The timing on these shorts man, pure luck. Let’s also add tariff inflation to the woes of traditional consumer disc businesses

Added more $INTC @ $22.24. Finished filling my desired position size. INTC’s mgmt is working w trump admin to draft a proposal by the next 2 weeks, could be a catalyst (unless trump tacos again).

Added $CAVA short @ $67.69

+10% to $24.9

INTC is my second-largest position. Some explanation on why I saw, and still see, $INTC as one of the most asymmetric setups of the year.

What Intel needs:
(1) money to build its Ohio fab — >$30b per fab
(2) customer commitments to allow these fabs to break even post-operation

What we knew:
(1a) The Trump administration views U.S. manufacturing as a cornerstone of progress
(1b) TSMC is prohibited by Taiwan’s laws from manufacturing leading-edge nodes outside of Taiwan, so there’s a limit to getting TSMC to manufacture in the U.S.
(1c) AI is a national security issue
(1d) Talks are progressing between INTC and the Trump administration
(1e) The Trump administration is willing to strategically invest in companies tied to national security issues, as seen from $MP

(2a) Fabless alone, without foundry, is easily worth >$25 per share.
(2b) LBT’s turnaround track record with $CDNS — if he were not encumbered by the dead-weight foundry business
(2c) Last quarter was INTC’s dying cry, and a subtle threat to customers and the USG that the foundry would not survive without help (this may be what prompted DT’s initial tweet about LBT)
(2d) INTC’s CFO mentioned that only a small amount of external customer commitments is needed to break-even on the Ohio Fab

Given all of the above, it does seem that there are very few ways to lose this trade, while winning it would mean a superior payout. Of course, all this could still fall apart if Trump wakes up on the wrong side of the bed tomorrow, but the r/r just seems so asymmetric to me. As an investor, my job is to take risk and not act only with perfect information.

If the USG does indeed take a stake in INTC (and the rumor is not false like a thousand other INTC rumors), then I can see chip commitments from AMD, NVDA, potentially AAPL, AVGO, and QCOM to INTC as a way for these companies to secure favorable licenses and deals from the admin. Maybe these companies start out cautious and only commit lower-end chips as a testing ground, but that's fine too as all INTC really needs is a chance to showcase its foundry and break-even through volume. Things can then progress from there, but what it first needs is a stage.

Related $INTC commentary as above

Trimmed another 30% of original position here @ $69 RMB, +116% from initial buy. Banked enough profit on the stock so keeping the remaining 40% as a moonshot

Closed $LULU short @ $201 for 1% loss. On hindsight it’s a little too beaten down for my liking. Maybe we’ll get to reshort higher, maybe not. Am fine with me either ways.

Another $2b into the pot from a Stargate member, and not even at that large of a discount to market price. Also opens the door (low probability but more likely now) to ARM chip commits maybe?

As you can see I do change my mind quite frequently. I’m a subscriber to the “strong convictions loosely held” philosophy.

The distilled bull case for a long time for $APP was that they’ve discovered some secret sauce in advertising similar to the walled gardens in $GOOG and $META, and combined with the amount of time people spent on their phones vs other devices, could one day propel $APP to the big boy gang.

I don’t know, but if $U prints a few exemplary quarters from here, then it might prove that its not some secret sauce as much as it’s just better ads matching driven by AI <> data, and that it’s not really a winner take all industry. That’d set the $APP bull case back a fair bit unless their progress on e-commerce onboarding outweighs that. So on a r/r basis, I have both but my $U position is much larger than $APP.

Confirmed that USG is taking a 10% stake in Intel. It’s not new money but a conversion of previous awarded but undistributed grants.

I can see an $ASML situation where customers come together to invest and make $INTC workable. Whats a billy$ to NVDA, to AAPL, AMD — if it secures them 1) favour with the current admin, 2) secures US-based chip manufacturing volume in the future.

For those that are unfamiliar with semiconductor lore, back in 2012, TSMC, INTC, and Samsung jointly invested in ASML for a 23% stake, to help ASML fast-track EUV lithography development — which then allowed these foundries to produce leading edge chips. Why can’t this situation happen again now with INTC, now in the interest of securing and building US chip production capability? I think it’s likely.

We also know Trump admin has stated they’re not going to run the business operationally. We know Trump would love to brag about how his “$10b investment deal” in INTC produced a 5x ROI for the U.S. taxpayers. The only way they can help, and can achieve that ROI, is to help INTC secure customers. I think this point is significantly more important than the notional $ value of any deals.

Added $NKE @ $79.4 and $COIN @ $311.76 to the short basket

In its current state, $COIN is a really bad business imo. Not sure how a company can spend a decade trailblazing an entire industry and yet end up with such poor UI/UX and user security. Just take a look at their recent perps offering; almost nil traction. I think the market affords too much leeway to this company because of the incumbency status. They really ought to shake up their product teams or HOOD will steal their bread.

At 52x p/e alongside their stagnancy, the r/r for a short is attractive. I’m treating it as a hedge to my external crypto exposure.

Out of $TEM long @ $76.95

I still think that they have a strong bull case given AI’s importance in oncology and precision medicine, and how integrated TEM already is with academics and medical institutions.

But this mgmt team is giving me poor vibes (read spruce point short report for more) and so I am sticking with my gut on this given how dependent the bull case is on mgmt execution. Locking in the 20% gain from initial entry and I’m cool if I miss the multibagger on this.

$AEO is doing a great job staying in the spotlight. Earnings next week. Results from recent ad campaigns shouldn’t be reflected in Q2 numbers but can be inferred from mgmt’s full year guidance / Q3 commentary (company doesn’t guide quarterly).

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/travis-kelce-american-eagle-collection-taylor-swift-1236498416/

$FIVE reported yesterday a blowout quarter, stock +1.45% to $146.5. Seems like mgmt did a successful job in resetting expectations.

However, H2 guidance implies a significant deceleration in same store sales % alongside margin compression. Hence, the stock didn’t react as it should on the blowout Q.

Staying short as I continue to think it’s a fundamentally challenged business, and will need more proof points to validate the turnaround. Anyway, I treat my shorts as a hedge that allows me to go “longer”. As long as my longs outperform my shorts I’m happy.

$9961.HK or $TCOM reported a beautiful set of results yesterday; double beats on revenue and EPS. Also announced a $5b share repurchase program. Stock +8% to $555HKD or $70.98 respectively.

Many rode this name on a China revenge travel trade and sold it after the easy part of the move was captured in Jan 25 — not wanting to take on the risk of Trip’s international expansion. That was a good move, though Trip’s intl expansion — into Asia and Europe — is finally coming to fruition now. Travel platforms are scale and data businesses, and increased volume create positive flywheels.

The $5b buyback program is a significant vote of confidence from the mgmt in Trip’s future. You need to understand that it’s extremely hard to get the company to part with their cold hard cash, especially with what they went through during COVID.

Am thinking if I should also put on a short leg on $BKNG $EXPE; I think it’s a matter of time that Trip eats their bread. Will see. Try Trip, and then try Booking.com — and you might understand.