Pivot Point Capital
$TGEN is my DEGEN MOONSHOT play for AI/data-center building out/liquid cooling. <$300m mcap but could be a multi-bagger if they get deals from hyperscalers. Some legitimacy here as they’re also partnered with Vertiv. Entry @ $8.89
$TGEN +30% in AH to $11.51 driven by the press release. While still in the quoting phase, this has the potential to add $60mn - $200mn of annual revenue just from these 2 projects (vs current revenue of $30mn).
Just a few deals signed can multiply its current revenue, hence a moonshot acting like a moonshot.
Just a few deals signed can multiply its current revenue, hence a moonshot acting like a moonshot.
Pivot Point Capital
Mid term play, mid conviction/risk $TWLO @ $144.83, $GTLB @ $71.64, $TEM @ $69 Recently I’ve been thinking about Phase 2 of the AI tailwinds. 2023/24 was AI Phase 1, and it was dominated by infrastructure players. Examples of the key winners were semis,…
Re-entered $TEM @ $63.88 after their recent print; solid print with progress made in their platform expansion into medical centres. Thesis is similar to what I wrote last year; I think this will be a really strong AI beneficiary.
Ads businesses have done really well this earnings season. $META, $RDDT, $APP, and even $GOOG have all posted solid numbers. This makes me wonder where the money is coming from.
There aren’t many losers left for these companies to steal share from, given they already make up over 80% of the Western ads market. That probably means traditional businesses are spending more on marketing to retain consumer wallet share.
If META is growing ad revenue at 20%, that’s effectively direct cost inflation for companies advertising with them. Those advertisers need to grow their top line by 20% — or cut expenses elsewhere (R&D? G&A?) — just to maintain flat margins.
The question then is: can AI help offset this through cost cutting? And even if it can, how sustainable is this dynamic (is the ROAS worth it)? I don’t have answers here, just an open-ended thought. There really are two parallel economies in coexistence huh?
There aren’t many losers left for these companies to steal share from, given they already make up over 80% of the Western ads market. That probably means traditional businesses are spending more on marketing to retain consumer wallet share.
If META is growing ad revenue at 20%, that’s effectively direct cost inflation for companies advertising with them. Those advertisers need to grow their top line by 20% — or cut expenses elsewhere (R&D? G&A?) — just to maintain flat margins.
The question then is: can AI help offset this through cost cutting? And even if it can, how sustainable is this dynamic (is the ROAS worth it)? I don’t have answers here, just an open-ended thought. There really are two parallel economies in coexistence huh?
Pivot Point Capital
Slight double beat by $U. Market took it badly at first, probably as the uplift and double beat was already priced in. However, mgmt is trying to frame Q2 as the inflection point for $U and Vector, which I think the market is taking it well so far.. I think…
Trimmed some $U @ $37.6 - $37.72 for 15% gain. Don’t like having a large position in a turnaround position in a winner takes all industry (referencing $APP)
Pivot Point Capital
Very interesting price action on $BMNR and ETH DAT peers.. BMNR dilutes $20b and is up +7% while $SBET is flat/down on no announcements. Power law at play Trimming some here @ $63 because I like to err on the side of caution when things are too good to be…
Sold 10% of $BMNR at $63, selling another 40% of the original position here at $69.
Will also not be sharing the exit on the remaining 50%, pls manage your own position on a high volatility stock.
Will also not be sharing the exit on the remaining 50%, pls manage your own position on a high volatility stock.
Added $RDDT @ $230.73
$INTC @ $21.91
$APP @ $443.23
$TEM @ $69.52
With the $BMNR and $U trims @ $69 & $37.65 respectively
$INTC @ $21.91
$APP @ $443.23
$TEM @ $69.52
With the $BMNR and $U trims @ $69 & $37.65 respectively
Pivot Point Capital
Some final touches; (1) Replacing GLXY with RDDT, (2) Switching TER into compounders, exchanging positions with TCOM, (3) Adding BMNR in moonshots Revised Allocation 60% Long-term Compounders: CDNS, GOOG, TER, NET, BABA 30% <1 year Event Trades: RDDT, AVAV…
Trimming 30% of $002837.SEHKZE @ $57.25 RMB, +80% from initial buy @ $31.9 RMB mentioned above.
In recent days it’s likely buoyed by news of China discouraging use of H20. The East <> West separation of AI supply chain is inevitable imo; as AI becomes a national security issue, independence in the entire vertical chain would be paramount (fab, fabless, data centres, upstream softwares etc). Think of $002837.SEHKZE as the Chinese $VRT, a pure-play liquid cooling company that would be in demand as China’s data center buildout progresses.
In recent days it’s likely buoyed by news of China discouraging use of H20. The East <> West separation of AI supply chain is inevitable imo; as AI becomes a national security issue, independence in the entire vertical chain would be paramount (fab, fabless, data centres, upstream softwares etc). Think of $002837.SEHKZE as the Chinese $VRT, a pure-play liquid cooling company that would be in demand as China’s data center buildout progresses.
The timing on these shorts man, pure luck. Let’s also add tariff inflation to the woes of traditional consumer disc businesses
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $RDDT @ $230.73 $INTC @ $21.91 $APP @ $443.23 $TEM @ $69.52 With the $BMNR and $U trims @ $69 & $37.65 respectively
Added more $INTC @ $22.24. Finished filling my desired position size. INTC’s mgmt is working w trump admin to draft a proposal by the next 2 weeks, could be a catalyst (unless trump tacos again).
Pivot Point Capital
Added more to $INTC @ $20.8. Trump's attention to the company increases the r/r imo; I think this is one of the most asymmetric setups I've seen this year. Only drawback is the opportunity cost in holding. Time will tell if I'm right.
INTC is my second-largest position. Some explanation on why I saw, and still see, $INTC as one of the most asymmetric setups of the year.
What Intel needs:
(1) money to build its Ohio fab — >$30b per fab
(2) customer commitments to allow these fabs to break even post-operation
What we knew:
(1a) The Trump administration views U.S. manufacturing as a cornerstone of progress
(1b) TSMC is prohibited by Taiwan’s laws from manufacturing leading-edge nodes outside of Taiwan, so there’s a limit to getting TSMC to manufacture in the U.S.
(1c) AI is a national security issue
(1d) Talks are progressing between INTC and the Trump administration
(1e) The Trump administration is willing to strategically invest in companies tied to national security issues, as seen from $MP
(2a) Fabless alone, without foundry, is easily worth >$25 per share.
(2b) LBT’s turnaround track record with $CDNS — if he were not encumbered by the dead-weight foundry business
(2c) Last quarter was INTC’s dying cry, and a subtle threat to customers and the USG that the foundry would not survive without help (this may be what prompted DT’s initial tweet about LBT)
(2d) INTC’s CFO mentioned that only a small amount of external customer commitments is needed to break-even on the Ohio Fab
Given all of the above, it does seem that there are very few ways to lose this trade, while winning it would mean a superior payout. Of course, all this could still fall apart if Trump wakes up on the wrong side of the bed tomorrow, but the r/r just seems so asymmetric to me. As an investor, my job is to take risk and not act only with perfect information.
If the USG does indeed take a stake in INTC (and the rumor is not false like a thousand other INTC rumors), then I can see chip commitments from AMD, NVDA, potentially AAPL, AVGO, and QCOM to INTC as a way for these companies to secure favorable licenses and deals from the admin. Maybe these companies start out cautious and only commit lower-end chips as a testing ground, but that's fine too as all INTC really needs is a chance to showcase its foundry and break-even through volume. Things can then progress from there, but what it first needs is a stage.
What Intel needs:
(1) money to build its Ohio fab — >$30b per fab
(2) customer commitments to allow these fabs to break even post-operation
What we knew:
(1a) The Trump administration views U.S. manufacturing as a cornerstone of progress
(1b) TSMC is prohibited by Taiwan’s laws from manufacturing leading-edge nodes outside of Taiwan, so there’s a limit to getting TSMC to manufacture in the U.S.
(1c) AI is a national security issue
(1d) Talks are progressing between INTC and the Trump administration
(1e) The Trump administration is willing to strategically invest in companies tied to national security issues, as seen from $MP
(2a) Fabless alone, without foundry, is easily worth >$25 per share.
(2b) LBT’s turnaround track record with $CDNS — if he were not encumbered by the dead-weight foundry business
(2c) Last quarter was INTC’s dying cry, and a subtle threat to customers and the USG that the foundry would not survive without help (this may be what prompted DT’s initial tweet about LBT)
(2d) INTC’s CFO mentioned that only a small amount of external customer commitments is needed to break-even on the Ohio Fab
Given all of the above, it does seem that there are very few ways to lose this trade, while winning it would mean a superior payout. Of course, all this could still fall apart if Trump wakes up on the wrong side of the bed tomorrow, but the r/r just seems so asymmetric to me. As an investor, my job is to take risk and not act only with perfect information.
If the USG does indeed take a stake in INTC (and the rumor is not false like a thousand other INTC rumors), then I can see chip commitments from AMD, NVDA, potentially AAPL, AVGO, and QCOM to INTC as a way for these companies to secure favorable licenses and deals from the admin. Maybe these companies start out cautious and only commit lower-end chips as a testing ground, but that's fine too as all INTC really needs is a chance to showcase its foundry and break-even through volume. Things can then progress from there, but what it first needs is a stage.
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Pivot Point Capital
On second thought, I’ll hold and wait for the open to decide. The position isn’t large, so oppy cost is manageable. LBT is precisely the kind of disciplined operator Intel needs at this stage — a ruthless executor focused on capital discipline and operational…
Related $INTC commentary as above
Pivot Point Capital
Trimming 30% of $002837.SEHKZE @ $57.25 RMB, +80% from initial buy @ $31.9 RMB mentioned above. In recent days it’s likely buoyed by news of China discouraging use of H20. The East <> West separation of AI supply chain is inevitable imo; as AI becomes a…
Trimmed another 30% of original position here @ $69 RMB, +116% from initial buy. Banked enough profit on the stock so keeping the remaining 40% as a moonshot
Closed $LULU short @ $201 for 1% loss. On hindsight it’s a little too beaten down for my liking. Maybe we’ll get to reshort higher, maybe not. Am fine with me either ways.
Pivot Point Capital
INTC is my second-largest position. Some explanation on why I saw, and still see, $INTC as one of the most asymmetric setups of the year. What Intel needs: (1) money to build its Ohio fab — >$30b per fab (2) customer commitments to allow these fabs to break…
Another $2b into the pot from a Stargate member, and not even at that large of a discount to market price. Also opens the door (low probability but more likely now) to ARM chip commits maybe?
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed some $U @ $37.6 - $37.72 for 15% gain. Don’t like having a large position in a turnaround position in a winner takes all industry (referencing $APP)
Re-added back to $U with the Jackson Hole dip @ $35.3-$35.7
On second thoughts, the bar is set very low for $U now vs someone more established like $APP. Given that we’re in the early phases of Vector (the beta stage with restricted access for the masses), it is likely much easier for Unity to gain incremental ROAS and ad share, not to forget the margin expansion from the operating leverage. We saw this blue sky scenario played out with $APP in 2023 when they enhanced Axon 1 to Axon 2. Corroborates with some expert calls which indicate that their mobile ad spend with Unity is growing at a higher pace than their spend with $APP.
Another point I don’t like is that $APP insiders are dumping a lot of stock over the past few months. There’s a few $APP bear cases that could explain the dumping (peak margins, difficulty in scaling ROAS, e-commerce is a different landscape to play in vs mobile gaming etc etc). Hence did trim some $APP around $435-$440 and allocated that size to Unity at 1/10 the market cap.
On second thoughts, the bar is set very low for $U now vs someone more established like $APP. Given that we’re in the early phases of Vector (the beta stage with restricted access for the masses), it is likely much easier for Unity to gain incremental ROAS and ad share, not to forget the margin expansion from the operating leverage. We saw this blue sky scenario played out with $APP in 2023 when they enhanced Axon 1 to Axon 2. Corroborates with some expert calls which indicate that their mobile ad spend with Unity is growing at a higher pace than their spend with $APP.
Another point I don’t like is that $APP insiders are dumping a lot of stock over the past few months. There’s a few $APP bear cases that could explain the dumping (peak margins, difficulty in scaling ROAS, e-commerce is a different landscape to play in vs mobile gaming etc etc). Hence did trim some $APP around $435-$440 and allocated that size to Unity at 1/10 the market cap.
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed some $U @ $37.6 - $37.72 for 15% gain. Don’t like having a large position in a turnaround position in a winner takes all industry (referencing $APP)
As you can see I do change my mind quite frequently. I’m a subscriber to the “strong convictions loosely held” philosophy.
The distilled bull case for a long time for $APP was that they’ve discovered some secret sauce in advertising similar to the walled gardens in $GOOG and $META, and combined with the amount of time people spent on their phones vs other devices, could one day propel $APP to the big boy gang.
I don’t know, but if $U prints a few exemplary quarters from here, then it might prove that its not some secret sauce as much as it’s just better ads matching driven by AI <> data, and that it’s not really a winner take all industry. That’d set the $APP bull case back a fair bit unless their progress on e-commerce onboarding outweighs that. So on a r/r basis, I have both but my $U position is much larger than $APP.
The distilled bull case for a long time for $APP was that they’ve discovered some secret sauce in advertising similar to the walled gardens in $GOOG and $META, and combined with the amount of time people spent on their phones vs other devices, could one day propel $APP to the big boy gang.
I don’t know, but if $U prints a few exemplary quarters from here, then it might prove that its not some secret sauce as much as it’s just better ads matching driven by AI <> data, and that it’s not really a winner take all industry. That’d set the $APP bull case back a fair bit unless their progress on e-commerce onboarding outweighs that. So on a r/r basis, I have both but my $U position is much larger than $APP.
Pivot Point Capital
INTC is my second-largest position. Some explanation on why I saw, and still see, $INTC as one of the most asymmetric setups of the year. What Intel needs: (1) money to build its Ohio fab — >$30b per fab (2) customer commitments to allow these fabs to break…
Confirmed that USG is taking a 10% stake in Intel. It’s not new money but a conversion of previous awarded but undistributed grants.
I can see an $ASML situation where customers come together to invest and make $INTC workable. Whats a billy$ to NVDA, to AAPL, AMD — if it secures them 1) favour with the current admin, 2) secures US-based chip manufacturing volume in the future.
For those that are unfamiliar with semiconductor lore, back in 2012, TSMC, INTC, and Samsung jointly invested in ASML for a 23% stake, to help ASML fast-track EUV lithography development — which then allowed these foundries to produce leading edge chips. Why can’t this situation happen again now with INTC, now in the interest of securing and building US chip production capability? I think it’s likely.
We also know Trump admin has stated they’re not going to run the business operationally. We know Trump would love to brag about how his “$10b investment deal” in INTC produced a 5x ROI for the U.S. taxpayers. The only way they can help, and can achieve that ROI, is to help INTC secure customers. I think this point is significantly more important than the notional $ value of any deals.
I can see an $ASML situation where customers come together to invest and make $INTC workable. Whats a billy$ to NVDA, to AAPL, AMD — if it secures them 1) favour with the current admin, 2) secures US-based chip manufacturing volume in the future.
For those that are unfamiliar with semiconductor lore, back in 2012, TSMC, INTC, and Samsung jointly invested in ASML for a 23% stake, to help ASML fast-track EUV lithography development — which then allowed these foundries to produce leading edge chips. Why can’t this situation happen again now with INTC, now in the interest of securing and building US chip production capability? I think it’s likely.
We also know Trump admin has stated they’re not going to run the business operationally. We know Trump would love to brag about how his “$10b investment deal” in INTC produced a 5x ROI for the U.S. taxpayers. The only way they can help, and can achieve that ROI, is to help INTC secure customers. I think this point is significantly more important than the notional $ value of any deals.
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Pivot Point Capital
Added $CAVA short @ $67.69
Added $NKE @ $79.4 and $COIN @ $311.76 to the short basket
In its current state, $COIN is a really bad business imo. Not sure how a company can spend a decade trailblazing an entire industry and yet end up with such poor UI/UX and user security. Just take a look at their recent perps offering; almost nil traction. I think the market affords too much leeway to this company because of the incumbency status. They really ought to shake up their product teams or HOOD will steal their bread.
At 52x p/e alongside their stagnancy, the r/r for a short is attractive. I’m treating it as a hedge to my external crypto exposure.
In its current state, $COIN is a really bad business imo. Not sure how a company can spend a decade trailblazing an entire industry and yet end up with such poor UI/UX and user security. Just take a look at their recent perps offering; almost nil traction. I think the market affords too much leeway to this company because of the incumbency status. They really ought to shake up their product teams or HOOD will steal their bread.
At 52x p/e alongside their stagnancy, the r/r for a short is attractive. I’m treating it as a hedge to my external crypto exposure.
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