Added more to $INTC @ $20.8. Trump's attention to the company increases the r/r imo; I think this is one of the most asymmetric setups I've seen this year. Only drawback is the opportunity cost in holding. Time will tell if I'm right.

There we go.. $20b stock offering.

Interesting reaction so far in PM. Let’s see if it holds. $BMNR

$RDDT ATH @ $228, +55% from our initial buy @ $147. Gotta love that post earnings drift

Very interesting price action on $BMNR and ETH DAT peers.. BMNR dilutes $20b and is up +7% while $SBET is flat/down on no announcements. Power law at play

Trimming some here @ $63 because I like to err on the side of caution when things are too good to be true.

Added $INTC Jan’27 $30C @ $2.45, using the BMNR trim.

$TGEN +30% in AH to $11.51 driven by the press release. While still in the quoting phase, this has the potential to add $60mn - $200mn of annual revenue just from these 2 projects (vs current revenue of $30mn).

Just a few deals signed can multiply its current revenue, hence a moonshot acting like a moonshot.

Re-entered $TEM @ $63.88 after their recent print; solid print with progress made in their platform expansion into medical centres. Thesis is similar to what I wrote last year; I think this will be a really strong AI beneficiary.

Ads businesses have done really well this earnings season. $META, $RDDT, $APP, and even $GOOG have all posted solid numbers. This makes me wonder where the money is coming from.

There aren’t many losers left for these companies to steal share from, given they already make up over 80% of the Western ads market. That probably means traditional businesses are spending more on marketing to retain consumer wallet share.

If META is growing ad revenue at 20%, that’s effectively direct cost inflation for companies advertising with them. Those advertisers need to grow their top line by 20% — or cut expenses elsewhere (R&D? G&A?) — just to maintain flat margins.

The question then is: can AI help offset this through cost cutting? And even if it can, how sustainable is this dynamic (is the ROAS worth it)? I don’t have answers here, just an open-ended thought. There really are two parallel economies in coexistence huh?

Trimmed some $U @ $37.6 - $37.72 for 15% gain. Don’t like having a large position in a turnaround position in a winner takes all industry (referencing $APP)

Sold 10% of $BMNR at $63, selling another 40% of the original position here at $69.

Will also not be sharing the exit on the remaining 50%, pls manage your own position on a high volatility stock.

Added $RDDT @ $230.73
$INTC @ $21.91
$APP @ $443.23
$TEM @ $69.52

With the $BMNR and $U trims @ $69 & $37.65 respectively

Trimming 30% of $002837.SEHKZE @ $57.25 RMB, +80% from initial buy @ $31.9 RMB mentioned above.

In recent days it’s likely buoyed by news of China discouraging use of H20. The East <> West separation of AI supply chain is inevitable imo; as AI becomes a national security issue, independence in the entire vertical chain would be paramount (fab, fabless, data centres, upstream softwares etc). Think of $002837.SEHKZE as the Chinese $VRT, a pure-play liquid cooling company that would be in demand as China’s data center buildout progresses.

The timing on these shorts man, pure luck. Let’s also add tariff inflation to the woes of traditional consumer disc businesses

Added more $INTC @ $22.24. Finished filling my desired position size. INTC’s mgmt is working w trump admin to draft a proposal by the next 2 weeks, could be a catalyst (unless trump tacos again).

Added $CAVA short @ $67.69

+10% to $24.9

INTC is my second-largest position. Some explanation on why I saw, and still see, $INTC as one of the most asymmetric setups of the year.

What Intel needs:
(1) money to build its Ohio fab — >$30b per fab
(2) customer commitments to allow these fabs to break even post-operation

What we knew:
(1a) The Trump administration views U.S. manufacturing as a cornerstone of progress
(1b) TSMC is prohibited by Taiwan’s laws from manufacturing leading-edge nodes outside of Taiwan, so there’s a limit to getting TSMC to manufacture in the U.S.
(1c) AI is a national security issue
(1d) Talks are progressing between INTC and the Trump administration
(1e) The Trump administration is willing to strategically invest in companies tied to national security issues, as seen from $MP

(2a) Fabless alone, without foundry, is easily worth >$25 per share.
(2b) LBT’s turnaround track record with $CDNS — if he were not encumbered by the dead-weight foundry business
(2c) Last quarter was INTC’s dying cry, and a subtle threat to customers and the USG that the foundry would not survive without help (this may be what prompted DT’s initial tweet about LBT)
(2d) INTC’s CFO mentioned that only a small amount of external customer commitments is needed to break-even on the Ohio Fab

Given all of the above, it does seem that there are very few ways to lose this trade, while winning it would mean a superior payout. Of course, all this could still fall apart if Trump wakes up on the wrong side of the bed tomorrow, but the r/r just seems so asymmetric to me. As an investor, my job is to take risk and not act only with perfect information.

If the USG does indeed take a stake in INTC (and the rumor is not false like a thousand other INTC rumors), then I can see chip commitments from AMD, NVDA, potentially AAPL, AVGO, and QCOM to INTC as a way for these companies to secure favorable licenses and deals from the admin. Maybe these companies start out cautious and only commit lower-end chips as a testing ground, but that's fine too as all INTC really needs is a chance to showcase its foundry and break-even through volume. Things can then progress from there, but what it first needs is a stage.

Related $INTC commentary as above

Trimmed another 30% of original position here @ $69 RMB, +116% from initial buy. Banked enough profit on the stock so keeping the remaining 40% as a moonshot

Closed $LULU short @ $201 for 1% loss. On hindsight it’s a little too beaten down for my liking. Maybe we’ll get to reshort higher, maybe not. Am fine with me either ways.