Cut @ $87.8, looking to get a lower entry

Slight double beat by $U. Market took it badly at first, probably as the uplift and double beat was already priced in.

However, mgmt is trying to frame Q2 as the inflection point for $U and Vector, which I think the market is taking it well so far.. I think given that this is only <15% of $APP marketcap, there is room for the narrative to take place, and for investors to dream.

Started a $FICO position @ $1374, long term hold. Lots of quality compounders have sold off over the past year, and FICO is one of them.

I don’t think this is a story similar to UNH and the likes, as FICO is actually written into the law. For that moat I’m willing to pay 45x NTM p/e. It’s also a rate cut beneficiary as demand for mortgages will increase when rates go down… I always like to buy dips on quality compounders and forget about it.

$RDDT is @ $213 and reaching its ATH, so may make sense to trim some off the trading portion of the position to try and reenter lower. Not touching the long-term portion.

$SNAP reported 2 days before and dragged down RDDT a little in the after-market. SNAP’s N.A. DAU saw slight dip, flat ARPU, and decel in revenue and stock traded down DD%. Pretty interesting how SNAP still has over 450mn users, yet is struggling so hard to monetise them.

Personally I view SNAP print as incremental to RDDT. RDDT’s ARPU is almost 60% higher than SNAP’s, with ~20% of DAUs.. maybe it’s the difference in user base as SNAP prob leans more towards Gen Z and Reddit towards the millennials.

It’s a good sign that RDDT is increasingly able to pull in more share from the global ads budget. Come to think of it, RDDT is also a wealth transfer play — as FB leans more to an older userbase.

Also an interesting link; RDDT’s data corpus is widely-regarded as one of the most valuable for LLM training

https://archive.is/n1zo2

Added $APP $387

$APP reported blowout earnings to Wall St’s disbelief, which is probably why the stock traded -5% AH.

APP is probably the first true pure-play AI beneficiary. I don’t think APP is a fraud; in fact I think it’s the first time our generation is exposed to how AI can significantly improve a traditional business — hence the disbelief. Just look at that operating leverage go. 76% OPM from 54% a year ago.

Adtech is just an example. I think we’re going to see AI benefits expand across every other industry as AI gets better everyday. Acceleration of revenue, accompanied by unbelievable expansion of margins. I think this coming AI wave will separate investors into those that distrust the benefits, to those that capitalise on it — just like the Internet wave. I want to catch these winners as they pop up over the next 5 years, and hopefully we stand on the right side of history.

Added more $APP @ $393-$395, Jan27 $430C LEAP for $114

We rarely get these type of oppy where we get to look into the print for free before deciding. Exceptionally good print + price down AH + well-covered so it’s liquid enough to size large into. Hence when it comes we have to maximize it.

And to add on to the AI beneficiaries thought, some of these real AI beneficiaries will probably become the new AI7..

https://x.com/hebbiaai/status/1953501578968605039?s=46

Pretty insane what AI can do just 2 years since first introduction. Now imagine 5 years, then imagine 10. My base case is that a Universal Basic Income scheme is inevitable in the long-run.

$BMNR finally surpassing our initial buy @ $45 after a decade.. Converting all crypto-related stocks into $BMNR at the bottom near $31-$33 seems to be the right choice, so far.

I think a stock offering is coming and how the stock reacts will be impt to whether we keep holding. $BMNR mNAV has finally expanded to ~1.83x from ~1.3x. One thing most people get wrong about these DATs are that you want to buy it when mNAV is trending up, not down.

In other words, you don’t want to be the last one holding it when mNAV goes below 1, when the cycle ends. That will be a very messy situation — just look back at the Grayscale Trust premium -> discount situation in 2022.

Something that is potentially overlooked when it comes to ETH DATs vs BTC DATs (Digital asset treasuries) is the reflexivity enabled by staking and DeFi. One plus point of DATs vs ETFs is that they are subjected to less regulations (for good or bad), and that means they can actually use their ETH rather than just holding it like a rock.

Being able to print 4% on your holdings at 95% margin is actually incremental. Taking MSTR’s NAV of $70+bn, that’s like $3bn of annual revenue that flows fully to net income given minimal overheads.

$BMNR

And adding to that reflexivity is Wall St’s inclination to model future cashflows to create a range of outcomes if ETH price ends up at $3k, $5k, or $10k etc… you get the idea..

Added more to $INTC @ $20.8. Trump's attention to the company increases the r/r imo; I think this is one of the most asymmetric setups I've seen this year. Only drawback is the opportunity cost in holding. Time will tell if I'm right.

There we go.. $20b stock offering.

Interesting reaction so far in PM. Let’s see if it holds. $BMNR

$RDDT ATH @ $228, +55% from our initial buy @ $147. Gotta love that post earnings drift

Very interesting price action on $BMNR and ETH DAT peers.. BMNR dilutes $20b and is up +7% while $SBET is flat/down on no announcements. Power law at play

Trimming some here @ $63 because I like to err on the side of caution when things are too good to be true.

Added $INTC Jan’27 $30C @ $2.45, using the BMNR trim.

$TGEN +30% in AH to $11.51 driven by the press release. While still in the quoting phase, this has the potential to add $60mn - $200mn of annual revenue just from these 2 projects (vs current revenue of $30mn).

Just a few deals signed can multiply its current revenue, hence a moonshot acting like a moonshot.

Re-entered $TEM @ $63.88 after their recent print; solid print with progress made in their platform expansion into medical centres. Thesis is similar to what I wrote last year; I think this will be a really strong AI beneficiary.

Ads businesses have done really well this earnings season. $META, $RDDT, $APP, and even $GOOG have all posted solid numbers. This makes me wonder where the money is coming from.

There aren’t many losers left for these companies to steal share from, given they already make up over 80% of the Western ads market. That probably means traditional businesses are spending more on marketing to retain consumer wallet share.

If META is growing ad revenue at 20%, that’s effectively direct cost inflation for companies advertising with them. Those advertisers need to grow their top line by 20% — or cut expenses elsewhere (R&D? G&A?) — just to maintain flat margins.

The question then is: can AI help offset this through cost cutting? And even if it can, how sustainable is this dynamic (is the ROAS worth it)? I don’t have answers here, just an open-ended thought. There really are two parallel economies in coexistence huh?