Added $GLXY @ $22.53

GLXY has businesses in all the right verticals in this current narrative cycle; data centers and crypto. In crypto, they have strong deal flows with regard to the treasury companies, hence getting the oppy to take part in private placements for the likes of SBET @ $6~ and BMNR @ $4~. The access to deals comes from their crypto investment banking/advisory arm.

At $9.5bn mcap, the stock hasn’t really seen much appreciation yet despite the hype for crypto companies. Thus R/R looks good going into their earnings on Aug 5th, where they’ll probably talk about the ROI on their SBET and BMNR deals.

On $8473.JT, the clear catalyst is that the XRP <> SEC court case will likely conclude by Aug 15. Once the regulatory overhang is cleared, it paves the way for Ripple Labs to IPO — though this is just speculation at this point. I think it’s likely an IPO comes, just not firm on the timeline.

Most recent shareholder tenders placed Ripple Labs at ~$25bn equity valuation in Jun 25, but I think the co could fetch much higher in the public market looking at CRCL’s performance. Not forgetting that Ripple Labs sits on 42% of XRP supply, with $14bn of that being liquid as well as an est ~$3bn of cash. XRP is also one of the few interesting altcoins, that somehow manages to suck in new retail and tradfi flows every cycle.

Sold half of $SBET @ $37.8 - $38.5 into $BMNR @ $47.7 on news of their latest buys. Leaving some ammo for tmr’s vesting event

$SBET coming in with a monster raise of $5bn. Very huge raise considering the current mNAV is only at 2.66x. Guess this is reflective of the fact that the ETH treasury space is much more competitive — and no players have a head start similar to MSTR vs copycats.

Hence we’ve decided to own both SBET and BMNR, as I’m honestly not sure which will end up the “winner”.

$MP holding steady @ $60 despite the $500mn equity raise. Strength is noteworthy — guess that’s one of the advantage of having a retail base that is used to buying all dips

$GLXY putting in huge moves in the after-market to $29. Now +28% from our first buy.

Likely driven by the Clarity and GENIUS Act both passing in the House yesterday, and market may be finally coming around to this under-covered crypto stock beyond the typical COIN, MSTR and HOOD. I think the R/R for GLXY is much better than the crypto giants, have a good feeling about this one.

$AVAV also back near post-earnings highs @ $280. Our dip buys near $230 - $240 have paid off handsomely.

The stock was also added to S&P400 few days ago, but the index flows may have been front ran given daily PA after that news. Doesn’t really matter though!

Core long-term longs like AVAV are really nice to have, as I don’t have to spend too much time monitoring them vs the crypto/riskier stuff. IMO, a portfolio that is structured as a risky short-term trading/safer quality compounders barbell works the best for me.

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Cut $MP @ $59.8; just reducing my exposure to retail favourites as froth levels increase.

This week saw some pretty crazy PA in retail favourites, and meme stock speculation is pretty much at or near 2021 levels imo. I think it’s a fool errand to call tops in a macro climate where we are seeing and will continue to see gigantic amounts of fiscal + monetary stimulus, but basic risk management should still apply

Added more to $GLXY @ $28.8 - $29, after considering the scarcity value for actual businesses in crypto (treasury companies are not actual businesses imo).

I think the market will soon come to appreciate that GLXY is the simple proxy bet for all treasury companies that have launched and will continue to launch, simply because of their strong deal flows.

Added some short-dated $INTC calls to play for earnings on 25th July (spot $INTC @ $23.6 for reference). This Q matters a lot in turning around investors’ confidence and sentiments about the stock imo, given its LBT’s first full quarter. Focus is on the success of their bloat reduction (ie cost minimisation efforts), and progress of their advanced nodes.

INTC is 90% likely to be pain, but R/R is worth it here. Not a big position anyway

Shorted some $BTBT @ $3.63 to hedge $SBET and $BMNR longs

I think treasury strategy companies will see some of the most brutal effects of the power law. If you’re not the top 1-2 treasury companies, your ability to raise funds is significantly diminished — leading to a negative feedback loop. Good hedge to have on imo given how cyclical and unpredictable crypto assets’ prices can be.

This $BTBT short hedge was put on at just the right time, giving us some flexibility in dealing with the SBET and BMNR drawdowns today.

Good news is that the drawdowns don’t seem idiosyncratic to crypto stocks; most speculative stuff across the board have seen huge drawdowns. The froth in the past few weeks, culminating with OPEN yesterday, was probably bit too much for the market to handle. Not tweaking the portfolio besides slight trims in $GLXY, $OUST, $8473.JT to manage risk and leverage.

May add $INTC long later though (yes I love pain). Seems to me like there is pretty solid R/R.

> They miss expectations, priced in, worst case stock maybe settles $20 - $21. $22 most likely.

> They beat expectations, I think we can see >$26 if LBT can instil fresh confidence and restart the narrative cycle.

Simple thesis. Why waste time say lot word when few word do trick?

Solid print from $GOOG yesterday. Search turned out stronger than expected, Cloud’s growth also not disappointing. Very underloved asset that has a stronger moat than most think imo, continues to be a comfortable core long.

This portfolio is up 40% since 04/12/24, outperforming the SPY (+4.4%) and NDX (+7.8%). That said, I think the portfolio wasn’t very well-designed as it didn’t consider cross-correlation and factor. We also haven’t screened volatility-adj returns so Sharpe might be lower due to the tariff episode.

It’s time to rotate out of a few positions that have played out sooner than expected and are now screening as expensive—NTDOY, HOOD, and COIN. We also want to increase exposure to major themes: AI (both U.S. and China), value-added software in the AI stack, rate-sensitive beneficiaries, robotics/autonomy, drones, and crypto.

Revised Allocation
60% Long-term Compounders: CDNS, GOOG, TCOM, NET, BABA

30% <1 year Event Trades: GLXY, AVAV, 002837.SZ, TER, BLDR

10% Moonshots: U, OUST

It remains a concentrated book; we want positions to matter when they work. But cross-correlation is also a consideration as the pf is meant to be hands-free: names must have distinct drivers to ensure diversification at the factor level

Closed the $BTBT short hedge at $3.3 yesterday — looking to reshort higher

Also trimmed more $8473.JT long @ $6033 Yen today

Added $INTC @ $23.05 — taking the print risk on this. Seems like most people are derisking into print. I could very well be wrong here but I think R/R is good enough for me